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A larger portion of Africa is at high risk for malaria transmission than previously predicted, according to a mapping study published in Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases.
The research also suggests that, under future climate regimes, the area where the disease can be transmitted most easily will shrink, but the total
malaria transmission zone in Africa will expand and move into new territory.
Researchers estimate that, by 2080, the year-round, highest-risk transmission zone will move from coastal West Africa, east to the Albertine Rift, between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.
The area suitable for seasonal, lower-risk transmission will shift north into coastal sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition, some parts of Africa will become too hot for malaria.
The overall expansion of malaria-vulnerable areas will challenge management of the deadly disease, said study author Sadie Ryan, PhD, of the University of Florida in Gainesville.
She noted that malaria will arrive in new areas, posing a risk to new populations, and the shift of endemic and epidemic areas will require public health management changes.
“Mapping a mathematical predictive model of a climate-driven infectious disease like malaria allows us to develop tools to understand both spatial and seasonal dynamics, and to anticipate the future changes to those dynamics,” Dr Ryan said.
She and her colleagues used a model that takes into account how mosquitoes and the malaria parasite respond to temperature. This model shows an optimal transmission temperature for malaria that, at 25 degrees Celsius, is 6 degrees lower than previous predictive models.
Dr Ryan said this work will play an important role in helping public health officials and non-governmental organizations plan for the efficient deployment of resources and interventions to control future outbreaks of malaria and their associated societal costs.
This study expands upon the team’s prior work at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California, Santa Barbara. 
Photo by James Gathany
A larger portion of Africa is at high risk for malaria transmission than previously predicted, according to a mapping study published in Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases.
The research also suggests that, under future climate regimes, the area where the disease can be transmitted most easily will shrink, but the total
malaria transmission zone in Africa will expand and move into new territory.
Researchers estimate that, by 2080, the year-round, highest-risk transmission zone will move from coastal West Africa, east to the Albertine Rift, between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.
The area suitable for seasonal, lower-risk transmission will shift north into coastal sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition, some parts of Africa will become too hot for malaria.
The overall expansion of malaria-vulnerable areas will challenge management of the deadly disease, said study author Sadie Ryan, PhD, of the University of Florida in Gainesville.
She noted that malaria will arrive in new areas, posing a risk to new populations, and the shift of endemic and epidemic areas will require public health management changes.
“Mapping a mathematical predictive model of a climate-driven infectious disease like malaria allows us to develop tools to understand both spatial and seasonal dynamics, and to anticipate the future changes to those dynamics,” Dr Ryan said.
She and her colleagues used a model that takes into account how mosquitoes and the malaria parasite respond to temperature. This model shows an optimal transmission temperature for malaria that, at 25 degrees Celsius, is 6 degrees lower than previous predictive models.
Dr Ryan said this work will play an important role in helping public health officials and non-governmental organizations plan for the efficient deployment of resources and interventions to control future outbreaks of malaria and their associated societal costs.
This study expands upon the team’s prior work at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Photo by James Gathany
A larger portion of Africa is at high risk for malaria transmission than previously predicted, according to a mapping study published in Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases.
The research also suggests that, under future climate regimes, the area where the disease can be transmitted most easily will shrink, but the total
malaria transmission zone in Africa will expand and move into new territory.
Researchers estimate that, by 2080, the year-round, highest-risk transmission zone will move from coastal West Africa, east to the Albertine Rift, between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.
The area suitable for seasonal, lower-risk transmission will shift north into coastal sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition, some parts of Africa will become too hot for malaria.
The overall expansion of malaria-vulnerable areas will challenge management of the deadly disease, said study author Sadie Ryan, PhD, of the University of Florida in Gainesville.
She noted that malaria will arrive in new areas, posing a risk to new populations, and the shift of endemic and epidemic areas will require public health management changes.
“Mapping a mathematical predictive model of a climate-driven infectious disease like malaria allows us to develop tools to understand both spatial and seasonal dynamics, and to anticipate the future changes to those dynamics,” Dr Ryan said.
She and her colleagues used a model that takes into account how mosquitoes and the malaria parasite respond to temperature. This model shows an optimal transmission temperature for malaria that, at 25 degrees Celsius, is 6 degrees lower than previous predictive models.
Dr Ryan said this work will play an important role in helping public health officials and non-governmental organizations plan for the efficient deployment of resources and interventions to control future outbreaks of malaria and their associated societal costs.
This study expands upon the team’s prior work at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California, Santa Barbara.