Ideal family size

If you are a pediatrician, babies are your bread and butter. In fact, they are the whole enchilada. Without them you are going to starve. Even if you are an adolescent medicine specialist, the pipeline feeding your business begins with babies. The number of babies entering the conveyor belt that eventually ends up in your office is something that should interest you. It probably doesn’t surprise you to learn that the fertility rate in this country has fallen. In fact, it has now dipped below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1%.

Another number that might interest you is ideal family size. In others words, the number of children American adults consider when they are envisioning the ideal family. You may be surprised to learn that despite the downward dip on the fertility rate during the 2007-2009 recession and the pandemic, a significant number of Americans still believe that the ideal family includes three children. Looking at the broader population, the ideal family is around 2.5 children, which is a number that is up a little from the 1990s but has scarcely changed over the last 5 decades. Obviously, there is a gap between what the population as a whole believes and the reality of how many children the fertile population is producing. And, there is research that suggests that this gap between personal intention and ideal family size is growing. In other words, people may be saying they believe bigger families are a good thing ... if everything is going well in their life.

What is behind this gap and why is it growing? As people are delaying building their families, realities and expectations collide. Some examples? The impact of their student loans is greater than they anticipated. Climate change and news stories focused on political uncertainty can be unsettling. A person may end up marrying someone who doesn’t concur with their view of an ideal family. Fertility problems crop up with advancing age. The first child may have presented more of a challenge both physically, emotionally, and economically than new parents had expected.

If we agree that the fertility rate is an important number for our survival as a profession, can we agree that because of this vested interest we should become involved in helping families widen this growing gap between their view of the ideal family size and the realities of actually producing that family?

Maybe we don’t need to get involved. When the national climate – meteorologically, politically, and economically – improves families will start making more babies. Right now maybe the better option is to adjust our business model to the fluctuations in demand.

On the other hand, we could ask the American Academy of Pediatrics to join with the American Academy of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and hire a big name advertising agency to launch an ad campaign encouraging young and not so young adults to have more children. However, this might appear rather transparent and self-serving.

The best option is probably to continue to do what we are already doing, but try to do it better. If the challenges of having a first child are a major deterrent to having a second child, we should redouble our efforts toward making, if only in retrospect, that first parenting experience rewarding and enjoyable. That could come in the form of speaking out for parental leave, breastfeeding-friendly workplaces, and more affordable daycare. But it could also come in those scores of encounters we have every day in the office where we give solid, realistic, and compassionate advice on breastfeeding, sleep hygiene, and behavior management. If we can make those tough first 6 months of parenting go more smoothly and make the twos seem less terrible, we may see the average family size in our practice grow before our eyes.

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at [email protected].

If you are a pediatrician, babies are your bread and butter. In fact, they are the whole enchilada. Without them you are going to starve. Even if you are an adolescent medicine specialist, the pipeline feeding your business begins with babies. The number of babies entering the conveyor belt that eventually ends up in your office is something that should interest you. It probably doesn’t surprise you to learn that the fertility rate in this country has fallen. In fact, it has now dipped below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1%.

Another number that might interest you is ideal family size. In others words, the number of children American adults consider when they are envisioning the ideal family. You may be surprised to learn that despite the downward dip on the fertility rate during the 2007-2009 recession and the pandemic, a significant number of Americans still believe that the ideal family includes three children. Looking at the broader population, the ideal family is around 2.5 children, which is a number that is up a little from the 1990s but has scarcely changed over the last 5 decades. Obviously, there is a gap between what the population as a whole believes and the reality of how many children the fertile population is producing. And, there is research that suggests that this gap between personal intention and ideal family size is growing. In other words, people may be saying they believe bigger families are a good thing ... if everything is going well in their life.

What is behind this gap and why is it growing? As people are delaying building their families, realities and expectations collide. Some examples? The impact of their student loans is greater than they anticipated. Climate change and news stories focused on political uncertainty can be unsettling. A person may end up marrying someone who doesn’t concur with their view of an ideal family. Fertility problems crop up with advancing age. The first child may have presented more of a challenge both physically, emotionally, and economically than new parents had expected.

If we agree that the fertility rate is an important number for our survival as a profession, can we agree that because of this vested interest we should become involved in helping families widen this growing gap between their view of the ideal family size and the realities of actually producing that family?

Maybe we don’t need to get involved. When the national climate – meteorologically, politically, and economically – improves families will start making more babies. Right now maybe the better option is to adjust our business model to the fluctuations in demand.

On the other hand, we could ask the American Academy of Pediatrics to join with the American Academy of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and hire a big name advertising agency to launch an ad campaign encouraging young and not so young adults to have more children. However, this might appear rather transparent and self-serving.

The best option is probably to continue to do what we are already doing, but try to do it better. If the challenges of having a first child are a major deterrent to having a second child, we should redouble our efforts toward making, if only in retrospect, that first parenting experience rewarding and enjoyable. That could come in the form of speaking out for parental leave, breastfeeding-friendly workplaces, and more affordable daycare. But it could also come in those scores of encounters we have every day in the office where we give solid, realistic, and compassionate advice on breastfeeding, sleep hygiene, and behavior management. If we can make those tough first 6 months of parenting go more smoothly and make the twos seem less terrible, we may see the average family size in our practice grow before our eyes.

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at [email protected].

If you are a pediatrician, babies are your bread and butter. In fact, they are the whole enchilada. Without them you are going to starve. Even if you are an adolescent medicine specialist, the pipeline feeding your business begins with babies. The number of babies entering the conveyor belt that eventually ends up in your office is something that should interest you. It probably doesn’t surprise you to learn that the fertility rate in this country has fallen. In fact, it has now dipped below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1%.

Another number that might interest you is ideal family size. In others words, the number of children American adults consider when they are envisioning the ideal family. You may be surprised to learn that despite the downward dip on the fertility rate during the 2007-2009 recession and the pandemic, a significant number of Americans still believe that the ideal family includes three children. Looking at the broader population, the ideal family is around 2.5 children, which is a number that is up a little from the 1990s but has scarcely changed over the last 5 decades. Obviously, there is a gap between what the population as a whole believes and the reality of how many children the fertile population is producing. And, there is research that suggests that this gap between personal intention and ideal family size is growing. In other words, people may be saying they believe bigger families are a good thing ... if everything is going well in their life.

What is behind this gap and why is it growing? As people are delaying building their families, realities and expectations collide. Some examples? The impact of their student loans is greater than they anticipated. Climate change and news stories focused on political uncertainty can be unsettling. A person may end up marrying someone who doesn’t concur with their view of an ideal family. Fertility problems crop up with advancing age. The first child may have presented more of a challenge both physically, emotionally, and economically than new parents had expected.

If we agree that the fertility rate is an important number for our survival as a profession, can we agree that because of this vested interest we should become involved in helping families widen this growing gap between their view of the ideal family size and the realities of actually producing that family?

Maybe we don’t need to get involved. When the national climate – meteorologically, politically, and economically – improves families will start making more babies. Right now maybe the better option is to adjust our business model to the fluctuations in demand.

On the other hand, we could ask the American Academy of Pediatrics to join with the American Academy of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and hire a big name advertising agency to launch an ad campaign encouraging young and not so young adults to have more children. However, this might appear rather transparent and self-serving.

The best option is probably to continue to do what we are already doing, but try to do it better. If the challenges of having a first child are a major deterrent to having a second child, we should redouble our efforts toward making, if only in retrospect, that first parenting experience rewarding and enjoyable. That could come in the form of speaking out for parental leave, breastfeeding-friendly workplaces, and more affordable daycare. But it could also come in those scores of encounters we have every day in the office where we give solid, realistic, and compassionate advice on breastfeeding, sleep hygiene, and behavior management. If we can make those tough first 6 months of parenting go more smoothly and make the twos seem less terrible, we may see the average family size in our practice grow before our eyes.

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at [email protected].