COVID-19: What now?

“There are decades where nothing happens,” wrote Vladimir Lenin, “and there are weeks where decades happen.” Barely a dozen weeks ago, no one knew that the SARS-CoV-2 virus existed. Now, it has spread to almost every country on Earth, infecting over 1.8 million people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. In so doing, it has crashed economies and health care systems, filled hospitals, emptied public spaces, and separated people from their workplaces and their friends on a scale that few of us have ever witnessed.

It has also triggered an avalanche of questions as to why our initial response was so thoroughly lethargic, rudderless, and uncoordinated; while there is plenty of blame to go around, that is for another time. The glaring question for many – including physicians trying to keep our private practices viable – is: What now?

The answer depends, of course, on how the pandemic plays out. No one yet knows exactly what will happen, but much depends on two properties of the virus, both of which are currently unknown. First: seasonality. Coronaviruses tend to thrive in winter and wane in the summer. That may also be true for SARS-CoV-2, but seasonal variations might not sufficiently slow the virus when it has so many immunologically naive hosts to infect. As I write this in mid-April, we wait anxiously to see what – if anything – summer temperatures do to its transmission in the Northern Hemisphere.

The second wild card is duration of immunity. Determining that will involve developing accurate serologic tests and administering them widely. Immune citizens, once identified, can return to work, care for the vulnerable, and anchor the economy during future outbreaks.

Even if we do get a summer hiatus, seasonal viruses typically return as winter approaches. We could conceivably still be mopping up from this outbreak when the virus – if it is seasonal – comes roaring back in October or November. Will we be ready? Or will it catch us with our pants amidships yet again?

I can envision two possibilities: Assuming we luck into a seasonal reprieve in the next few weeks, infection rates should drop, which could allow our private practices to return toward some semblance of normal – if health workers and patients alike can be convinced that our offices and clinics are safe. This might be accomplished as part of our overall preparation for a potential winter recurrence, by checking every patient’s temperature at the waiting room door. Similarly, all students should get a daily temperature check at school, as should all commuters, airline passengers, and individuals at any sizable gathering. Every fever should trigger a COVID-19 test, and every positive test should launch aggressive contact tracing and quarantines. Meanwhile, treatments and vaccines should get fast-tracked.

That’s what should happen. If it doesn’t, and COVID-19 recurs next winter, worse than before, it is anybody’s guess whether most private medical practices will be able to weather a second onslaught. Further government funding is not assured. We won’t have a vaccine by November. Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin might turn out to be helpful, but we can’t count on them.

Even if we do get lucky with seasonality, the question remains of how long it will take to restore public confidence and reboot the economy. Economies generally do not function like light switches that can be turned off for a while then simply turned back on, but act more like campfires. If you pour a bucket of water on one, it takes some time to get it cranked up again. After the “Great Recession” of 2008, it took nearly 10 years.

So now, with great reluctance, I must trot out a hoary old cliché: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Everyone’s situation will be different, of course, but I can make a few general suggestions. Perform a difficult mental exercise: What will you do if SARS-CoV-2 outlasts emergency funds from the Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster programs? Do the math – how long can you keep your practice afloat without floating further loans or dipping into personal savings? If you don’t know how many patients you need to see per day to break even, figure it out – now. On what day will you run out of money? When will you start putting your future at risk?

None of us thought we would ever have to face questions like these, of course – and how ironic is it that a medical emergency has forced them upon us? I sincerely hope that none of us will need to actually confront this Hobson’s choice in the coming months, but far better to address the hypothetical now than the reality later. As always, consult with your own attorney, accountant, and other business advisors before making any life-altering decisions.

Dr. Eastern practices dermatology and dermatologic surgery in Belleville, N.J. He is the author of numerous articles and textbook chapters, and is a longtime monthly columnist for Dermatology News. Write to him at [email protected]. He has no disclosures.

“There are decades where nothing happens,” wrote Vladimir Lenin, “and there are weeks where decades happen.” Barely a dozen weeks ago, no one knew that the SARS-CoV-2 virus existed. Now, it has spread to almost every country on Earth, infecting over 1.8 million people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. In so doing, it has crashed economies and health care systems, filled hospitals, emptied public spaces, and separated people from their workplaces and their friends on a scale that few of us have ever witnessed.

It has also triggered an avalanche of questions as to why our initial response was so thoroughly lethargic, rudderless, and uncoordinated; while there is plenty of blame to go around, that is for another time. The glaring question for many – including physicians trying to keep our private practices viable – is: What now?

The answer depends, of course, on how the pandemic plays out. No one yet knows exactly what will happen, but much depends on two properties of the virus, both of which are currently unknown. First: seasonality. Coronaviruses tend to thrive in winter and wane in the summer. That may also be true for SARS-CoV-2, but seasonal variations might not sufficiently slow the virus when it has so many immunologically naive hosts to infect. As I write this in mid-April, we wait anxiously to see what – if anything – summer temperatures do to its transmission in the Northern Hemisphere.

The second wild card is duration of immunity. Determining that will involve developing accurate serologic tests and administering them widely. Immune citizens, once identified, can return to work, care for the vulnerable, and anchor the economy during future outbreaks.

Even if we do get a summer hiatus, seasonal viruses typically return as winter approaches. We could conceivably still be mopping up from this outbreak when the virus – if it is seasonal – comes roaring back in October or November. Will we be ready? Or will it catch us with our pants amidships yet again?

I can envision two possibilities: Assuming we luck into a seasonal reprieve in the next few weeks, infection rates should drop, which could allow our private practices to return toward some semblance of normal – if health workers and patients alike can be convinced that our offices and clinics are safe. This might be accomplished as part of our overall preparation for a potential winter recurrence, by checking every patient’s temperature at the waiting room door. Similarly, all students should get a daily temperature check at school, as should all commuters, airline passengers, and individuals at any sizable gathering. Every fever should trigger a COVID-19 test, and every positive test should launch aggressive contact tracing and quarantines. Meanwhile, treatments and vaccines should get fast-tracked.

That’s what should happen. If it doesn’t, and COVID-19 recurs next winter, worse than before, it is anybody’s guess whether most private medical practices will be able to weather a second onslaught. Further government funding is not assured. We won’t have a vaccine by November. Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin might turn out to be helpful, but we can’t count on them.

Even if we do get lucky with seasonality, the question remains of how long it will take to restore public confidence and reboot the economy. Economies generally do not function like light switches that can be turned off for a while then simply turned back on, but act more like campfires. If you pour a bucket of water on one, it takes some time to get it cranked up again. After the “Great Recession” of 2008, it took nearly 10 years.

So now, with great reluctance, I must trot out a hoary old cliché: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Everyone’s situation will be different, of course, but I can make a few general suggestions. Perform a difficult mental exercise: What will you do if SARS-CoV-2 outlasts emergency funds from the Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster programs? Do the math – how long can you keep your practice afloat without floating further loans or dipping into personal savings? If you don’t know how many patients you need to see per day to break even, figure it out – now. On what day will you run out of money? When will you start putting your future at risk?

None of us thought we would ever have to face questions like these, of course – and how ironic is it that a medical emergency has forced them upon us? I sincerely hope that none of us will need to actually confront this Hobson’s choice in the coming months, but far better to address the hypothetical now than the reality later. As always, consult with your own attorney, accountant, and other business advisors before making any life-altering decisions.

Dr. Eastern practices dermatology and dermatologic surgery in Belleville, N.J. He is the author of numerous articles and textbook chapters, and is a longtime monthly columnist for Dermatology News. Write to him at [email protected]. He has no disclosures.

“There are decades where nothing happens,” wrote Vladimir Lenin, “and there are weeks where decades happen.” Barely a dozen weeks ago, no one knew that the SARS-CoV-2 virus existed. Now, it has spread to almost every country on Earth, infecting over 1.8 million people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. In so doing, it has crashed economies and health care systems, filled hospitals, emptied public spaces, and separated people from their workplaces and their friends on a scale that few of us have ever witnessed.

It has also triggered an avalanche of questions as to why our initial response was so thoroughly lethargic, rudderless, and uncoordinated; while there is plenty of blame to go around, that is for another time. The glaring question for many – including physicians trying to keep our private practices viable – is: What now?

The answer depends, of course, on how the pandemic plays out. No one yet knows exactly what will happen, but much depends on two properties of the virus, both of which are currently unknown. First: seasonality. Coronaviruses tend to thrive in winter and wane in the summer. That may also be true for SARS-CoV-2, but seasonal variations might not sufficiently slow the virus when it has so many immunologically naive hosts to infect. As I write this in mid-April, we wait anxiously to see what – if anything – summer temperatures do to its transmission in the Northern Hemisphere.

The second wild card is duration of immunity. Determining that will involve developing accurate serologic tests and administering them widely. Immune citizens, once identified, can return to work, care for the vulnerable, and anchor the economy during future outbreaks.

Even if we do get a summer hiatus, seasonal viruses typically return as winter approaches. We could conceivably still be mopping up from this outbreak when the virus – if it is seasonal – comes roaring back in October or November. Will we be ready? Or will it catch us with our pants amidships yet again?

I can envision two possibilities: Assuming we luck into a seasonal reprieve in the next few weeks, infection rates should drop, which could allow our private practices to return toward some semblance of normal – if health workers and patients alike can be convinced that our offices and clinics are safe. This might be accomplished as part of our overall preparation for a potential winter recurrence, by checking every patient’s temperature at the waiting room door. Similarly, all students should get a daily temperature check at school, as should all commuters, airline passengers, and individuals at any sizable gathering. Every fever should trigger a COVID-19 test, and every positive test should launch aggressive contact tracing and quarantines. Meanwhile, treatments and vaccines should get fast-tracked.

That’s what should happen. If it doesn’t, and COVID-19 recurs next winter, worse than before, it is anybody’s guess whether most private medical practices will be able to weather a second onslaught. Further government funding is not assured. We won’t have a vaccine by November. Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin might turn out to be helpful, but we can’t count on them.

Even if we do get lucky with seasonality, the question remains of how long it will take to restore public confidence and reboot the economy. Economies generally do not function like light switches that can be turned off for a while then simply turned back on, but act more like campfires. If you pour a bucket of water on one, it takes some time to get it cranked up again. After the “Great Recession” of 2008, it took nearly 10 years.

So now, with great reluctance, I must trot out a hoary old cliché: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Everyone’s situation will be different, of course, but I can make a few general suggestions. Perform a difficult mental exercise: What will you do if SARS-CoV-2 outlasts emergency funds from the Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster programs? Do the math – how long can you keep your practice afloat without floating further loans or dipping into personal savings? If you don’t know how many patients you need to see per day to break even, figure it out – now. On what day will you run out of money? When will you start putting your future at risk?

None of us thought we would ever have to face questions like these, of course – and how ironic is it that a medical emergency has forced them upon us? I sincerely hope that none of us will need to actually confront this Hobson’s choice in the coming months, but far better to address the hypothetical now than the reality later. As always, consult with your own attorney, accountant, and other business advisors before making any life-altering decisions.

Dr. Eastern practices dermatology and dermatologic surgery in Belleville, N.J. He is the author of numerous articles and textbook chapters, and is a longtime monthly columnist for Dermatology News. Write to him at [email protected]. He has no disclosures.