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Global mortality due to rheumatic heart disease fell by about 48% during a recent 25-year-period, but some of the poorest areas of the world were left behind, according to a report in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Those regions included Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa, where rheumatic heart disease remains endemic, wrote David A. Watkins, MD, MPH, of the University of Washington, Seattle, and his coinvestigators. “We estimate that 10 persons per 1,000 population living in South Asia and central sub-Saharan Africa and 15 persons per 1,000 population in Oceania were living with rheumatic heart disease in the year 2015,” they wrote. “Improvements in the measurement of the burden of rheumatic heart disease will assist in planning for its control and will help identify countries where further investments are needed.”
To better define the problem, Dr. Watkins and his associates analyzed epidemiologic studies of rheumatic heart disease from 1990 through 2015. They used the Cause of Death Ensemble model, which estimates mortality more reliably than older methods, and DisMod-MR (version 2.1), which sums epidemiologic data from multiple sources and corrects for gaps and inconsistencies (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:713-22).
Worldwide, about 319,400 individuals died of rheumatic heart disease in 2015, the researchers reported. Age-adjusted death rates fell by about 48% (95% confidence interval, 45%-51%), from 9.2 deaths per 100,000 population in 1990 to 4.8 deaths per 100,000 population in 2015. But this global trend masked striking regional disparities. In 1990, 77% of deaths from rheumatic heart disease occurred in endemic areas of Africa, South Asia, Oceania, and the Caribbean; by 2015, 82% of deaths occurred in endemic regions. Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates and were the only regions where the 95% confidence intervals for 1990 and 2015 overlapped, the investigators noted.
In 2015, age-standardized death rates exceeded 10 deaths per 100,000 population in the Solomon Islands, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Vanuatu, Fiji, India, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Central African Republic, and Lesotho, they reported. Estimated fatalities were highest in India (119,100 deaths), China (72,600), and Pakistan (18,900). They estimated that in 2015, there were 33.2 million cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million associated disability-adjusted life-years globally.
The study excluded “borderline” or subclinical rheumatic heart disease, which is detected by echocardiography and whose management remains unclear. “Better data for low-income and middle-income countries are needed to guide policies for the control of rheumatic heart disease,” the investigators wrote. They recommended studying death certificate misclassifications, disease prevalence among adults, and longitudinal trends in nonfatal outcomes and excess mortality.
Funders of the study included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation. Dr. Watkins disclosed grants from the Medtronic Foundation during the conduct of the study and grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation outside the submitted work.
Rheumatic heart disease ranks as one of the most serious cardiovascular scourges of the past century. As a result of improvements in living conditions and the introduction of penicillin, the disease was almost eradicated in the developed world by the 1980s. However, it remains a force to be reckoned with in the developing world, as demonstrated by an assessment from the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2015), painstakingly performed by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues.
Several key messages emerge from this important study. It confirms the marked global heterogeneity of the burden of rheumatic heart disease, with near-zero prevalence in developed countries sharply contrasting with substantial prevalence and mortality in developing areas. In addition, however, the study documents the scarcity of accurately measured data in many locations, especially in areas with the highest prevalence (such as sub-Saharan Africa).
Although the “headline news” of a global decline in the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease described by Watkins et al. may give cause for optimism, the burden remains great for those parts of the world least able to afford it. Without sustained re-engagement of clinicians, researchers, funders, and public health bodies, the menace of rheumatic heart disease is unlikely to be eliminated in the near future. Rheumatic heart disease remains a problematic iceberg, yet undissolved, in warm tropical waters.
Eloi Marijon, MD, PhD, and Xavier Jouven, MD, PhD, are at European Georges Pompidou Hospital, Paris. David S. Celermajer, PhD, is at Sydney (Australia) Medical School. They reported having no conflicts of interest. Their editorial accompanied the report by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:780-1).
Rheumatic heart disease ranks as one of the most serious cardiovascular scourges of the past century. As a result of improvements in living conditions and the introduction of penicillin, the disease was almost eradicated in the developed world by the 1980s. However, it remains a force to be reckoned with in the developing world, as demonstrated by an assessment from the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2015), painstakingly performed by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues.
Several key messages emerge from this important study. It confirms the marked global heterogeneity of the burden of rheumatic heart disease, with near-zero prevalence in developed countries sharply contrasting with substantial prevalence and mortality in developing areas. In addition, however, the study documents the scarcity of accurately measured data in many locations, especially in areas with the highest prevalence (such as sub-Saharan Africa).
Although the “headline news” of a global decline in the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease described by Watkins et al. may give cause for optimism, the burden remains great for those parts of the world least able to afford it. Without sustained re-engagement of clinicians, researchers, funders, and public health bodies, the menace of rheumatic heart disease is unlikely to be eliminated in the near future. Rheumatic heart disease remains a problematic iceberg, yet undissolved, in warm tropical waters.
Eloi Marijon, MD, PhD, and Xavier Jouven, MD, PhD, are at European Georges Pompidou Hospital, Paris. David S. Celermajer, PhD, is at Sydney (Australia) Medical School. They reported having no conflicts of interest. Their editorial accompanied the report by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:780-1).
Rheumatic heart disease ranks as one of the most serious cardiovascular scourges of the past century. As a result of improvements in living conditions and the introduction of penicillin, the disease was almost eradicated in the developed world by the 1980s. However, it remains a force to be reckoned with in the developing world, as demonstrated by an assessment from the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2015), painstakingly performed by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues.
Several key messages emerge from this important study. It confirms the marked global heterogeneity of the burden of rheumatic heart disease, with near-zero prevalence in developed countries sharply contrasting with substantial prevalence and mortality in developing areas. In addition, however, the study documents the scarcity of accurately measured data in many locations, especially in areas with the highest prevalence (such as sub-Saharan Africa).
Although the “headline news” of a global decline in the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease described by Watkins et al. may give cause for optimism, the burden remains great for those parts of the world least able to afford it. Without sustained re-engagement of clinicians, researchers, funders, and public health bodies, the menace of rheumatic heart disease is unlikely to be eliminated in the near future. Rheumatic heart disease remains a problematic iceberg, yet undissolved, in warm tropical waters.
Eloi Marijon, MD, PhD, and Xavier Jouven, MD, PhD, are at European Georges Pompidou Hospital, Paris. David S. Celermajer, PhD, is at Sydney (Australia) Medical School. They reported having no conflicts of interest. Their editorial accompanied the report by Dr. Watkins and his colleagues (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:780-1).
Global mortality due to rheumatic heart disease fell by about 48% during a recent 25-year-period, but some of the poorest areas of the world were left behind, according to a report in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Those regions included Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa, where rheumatic heart disease remains endemic, wrote David A. Watkins, MD, MPH, of the University of Washington, Seattle, and his coinvestigators. “We estimate that 10 persons per 1,000 population living in South Asia and central sub-Saharan Africa and 15 persons per 1,000 population in Oceania were living with rheumatic heart disease in the year 2015,” they wrote. “Improvements in the measurement of the burden of rheumatic heart disease will assist in planning for its control and will help identify countries where further investments are needed.”
To better define the problem, Dr. Watkins and his associates analyzed epidemiologic studies of rheumatic heart disease from 1990 through 2015. They used the Cause of Death Ensemble model, which estimates mortality more reliably than older methods, and DisMod-MR (version 2.1), which sums epidemiologic data from multiple sources and corrects for gaps and inconsistencies (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:713-22).
Worldwide, about 319,400 individuals died of rheumatic heart disease in 2015, the researchers reported. Age-adjusted death rates fell by about 48% (95% confidence interval, 45%-51%), from 9.2 deaths per 100,000 population in 1990 to 4.8 deaths per 100,000 population in 2015. But this global trend masked striking regional disparities. In 1990, 77% of deaths from rheumatic heart disease occurred in endemic areas of Africa, South Asia, Oceania, and the Caribbean; by 2015, 82% of deaths occurred in endemic regions. Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates and were the only regions where the 95% confidence intervals for 1990 and 2015 overlapped, the investigators noted.
In 2015, age-standardized death rates exceeded 10 deaths per 100,000 population in the Solomon Islands, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Vanuatu, Fiji, India, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Central African Republic, and Lesotho, they reported. Estimated fatalities were highest in India (119,100 deaths), China (72,600), and Pakistan (18,900). They estimated that in 2015, there were 33.2 million cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million associated disability-adjusted life-years globally.
The study excluded “borderline” or subclinical rheumatic heart disease, which is detected by echocardiography and whose management remains unclear. “Better data for low-income and middle-income countries are needed to guide policies for the control of rheumatic heart disease,” the investigators wrote. They recommended studying death certificate misclassifications, disease prevalence among adults, and longitudinal trends in nonfatal outcomes and excess mortality.
Funders of the study included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation. Dr. Watkins disclosed grants from the Medtronic Foundation during the conduct of the study and grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation outside the submitted work.
Global mortality due to rheumatic heart disease fell by about 48% during a recent 25-year-period, but some of the poorest areas of the world were left behind, according to a report in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Those regions included Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa, where rheumatic heart disease remains endemic, wrote David A. Watkins, MD, MPH, of the University of Washington, Seattle, and his coinvestigators. “We estimate that 10 persons per 1,000 population living in South Asia and central sub-Saharan Africa and 15 persons per 1,000 population in Oceania were living with rheumatic heart disease in the year 2015,” they wrote. “Improvements in the measurement of the burden of rheumatic heart disease will assist in planning for its control and will help identify countries where further investments are needed.”
To better define the problem, Dr. Watkins and his associates analyzed epidemiologic studies of rheumatic heart disease from 1990 through 2015. They used the Cause of Death Ensemble model, which estimates mortality more reliably than older methods, and DisMod-MR (version 2.1), which sums epidemiologic data from multiple sources and corrects for gaps and inconsistencies (N Engl J Med. 2017;377:713-22).
Worldwide, about 319,400 individuals died of rheumatic heart disease in 2015, the researchers reported. Age-adjusted death rates fell by about 48% (95% confidence interval, 45%-51%), from 9.2 deaths per 100,000 population in 1990 to 4.8 deaths per 100,000 population in 2015. But this global trend masked striking regional disparities. In 1990, 77% of deaths from rheumatic heart disease occurred in endemic areas of Africa, South Asia, Oceania, and the Caribbean; by 2015, 82% of deaths occurred in endemic regions. Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates and were the only regions where the 95% confidence intervals for 1990 and 2015 overlapped, the investigators noted.
In 2015, age-standardized death rates exceeded 10 deaths per 100,000 population in the Solomon Islands, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Vanuatu, Fiji, India, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Central African Republic, and Lesotho, they reported. Estimated fatalities were highest in India (119,100 deaths), China (72,600), and Pakistan (18,900). They estimated that in 2015, there were 33.2 million cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million associated disability-adjusted life-years globally.
The study excluded “borderline” or subclinical rheumatic heart disease, which is detected by echocardiography and whose management remains unclear. “Better data for low-income and middle-income countries are needed to guide policies for the control of rheumatic heart disease,” the investigators wrote. They recommended studying death certificate misclassifications, disease prevalence among adults, and longitudinal trends in nonfatal outcomes and excess mortality.
Funders of the study included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation. Dr. Watkins disclosed grants from the Medtronic Foundation during the conduct of the study and grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation outside the submitted work.
FROM NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE
Key clinical point:
Major finding: Globally, age-adjusted death rates fell by about 48% between 1990 and 2015. Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates in 2015, and were the only regions where the 95% confidence intervals overlapped with those for 1990.
Data source: A systematic review and analysis of morbidity and mortality data from 1990 through 2015.
Disclosures: Funders included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation. Dr. Watkins disclosed grants from the Medtronic Foundation during the conduct of the study and grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation outside the submitted work.
