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Two‐Item Bedside Test for Delirium
Delirium (acute confusion) is common in older adults and leads to poor outcomes, such as death, clinician and caregiver burden, and prolonged cognitive and functional decline.[1, 2, 3, 4] Delirium is extremely costly, with estimates ranging from $143 to $152 billion annually (2005 US$).[5, 6] Early detection and management may improve the poor outcomes and reduce costs attributable to delirium,[3, 7] yet delirium identification in clinical practice has been challenging, particularly when translating research tools to the bedside.[8, 9, 10]As a result, only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are detected in routine care, with hypoactive delirium and delirium superimposed on dementia most likely to be missed.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15]
To address these issues, we recently developed and published the three‐dimensional Confusion Assessment Method (3D‐CAM), the 3‐minute diagnostic assessment for CAM‐defined delirium.[16] The 3D‐CAM is a structured assessment tool that includes mental status testing, patient symptom probes, and guided interviewer observations for signs of delirium. 3D‐CAM items were selected through a rigorous process to determine the most informative items for the 4 CAM diagnostic features.[17] The 3D‐CAM can be completed in 3 minutes, and has 95% sensitivity and 94% specificity relative to a reference standard.[16]
Despite the capabilities of the 3D‐CAM, there are situations when even 3 minutes is too long to devote to delirium identification. Moreover, a 2‐step approach in which a sensitive ultrabrief screen is administered, followed by the 3D‐CAM in positives, may be the most efficient approach for large‐scale delirium case identification. The aim of the current study was to use the 3D‐CAM database to identify the most sensitive single item and pair of items in the diagnosis of delirium, using the reference standard in the diagnostic accuracy analysis. We hypothesized that we could identify a single item with greater than 80% sensitivity and a pair of items with greater than 90% sensitivity for detection of delirium.
METHODS
Study Sample and Design
We analyzed data from the 3D‐CAM validation study,[16] which prospectively enrolled participants from a large urban teaching hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, using a consecutive enrollment sampling strategy. Inclusion criteria were: (1) 75 years old, (2) admitted to general or geriatric medicine services, (3) able to communicate in English, (4) without terminal conditions, (5) expected hospital stay of 2 days, (6) not a previous study participant. Experienced clinicians screened patients for eligibility. If the patient lacked capacity to provide consent, the designated surrogate decision maker was contacted. The study was approved by the institutional review board.
Reference Standard Delirium Diagnosis
The reference standard delirium diagnosis was based on an extensive (45 minutes) face‐to‐face patient interview by experienced clinician assessors (neuropsychologists or advanced practice nurses), medical record review, and input from the nurse and family members. This comprehensive assessment included: (1) reason for hospital admission, hospital course, and presence of cognitive concerns, (2) family, social, and functional history, (3) Montreal Cognitive Assessment,[18] (4) Geriatric Depression Scale,[19] (5) medical record review including scoring of comorbidities using the Charlson index,[20] determination of functional status using the basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living,[21, 22] psychoactive medications administered, and (6) a family member interview to assess the patient's baseline cognitive status that included the Eight‐Item Interview to Differentiate Aging and Dementia,[23] to assess the presence of dementia. Using all of these data, an expert panel, including the clinical assessor, the study principal investigator (E.R.M.), a geriatrician, and an experienced neuropsychologist, adjudicated the final delirium diagnoses using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM‐IV) criteria. The panel also adjudicated for the presence or absence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment based on National Institute on Aging‐Alzheimer's Association (NIA‐AA) criteria.[24] This approach has been used in other delirium studies.[25]
3D‐CAM Assessments
After the reference standard assessment, the 3D‐CAM was administered by trained research assistants (RAs) who were blinded to the results of the reference standard. To reduce the likelihood of fluctuations or temporal changes, all assessments were completed between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm and for each participant, within a 2‐hour time period (for example, 11:23 am to 1:23 pm).
Statistical Analyses to Determine the Best Single‐ and Two‐Item Screeners
To determine the best single 3D‐CAM item to identify delirium, the responses of the 20 individual items in the 3D‐CAM (see Supporting Table 1 in the online version of this article) were compared to the reference standard to determine their sensitivity and specificity. Similarly, an algorithm was used to generate all unique 2‐item combinations of the 20 items (190 unique pairs), which were compared to the reference. An error, no response, or an answer of I do not know by the patient was considered a positive screen for delirium. The 2‐item screeners were considered positive if 1 or both of the items were positive. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Subset analyses were performed to determine sensitivity and specificity of individual items and pairs of items stratified by the patient's baseline cognitive status. Two strata were createdpatients with dementia (N=56), and patients with normal baseline cognitive status or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (N=145). We chose to group MCI with normal for 2 reasons: (1) dementia is a well‐established and strong risk factor for delirium, whereas the evidence for MCI being a risk factor for delirium is less established and (2) to achieve adequate allocation of delirious cases in both strata. Last, we report the sensitivity of altered level of consciousness (LOC), which included lethargy, stupor, coma, and hypervigilance as a single screening item for delirium in the overall sample and by cognitive status. Analyses were conducted using commercially available software (SAS version 9.3; SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC).
RESULTS
Characteristics of the patients are shown in Table 1. Subjects had a mean age of 84 years, 62% were female, and 28% had a baseline dementia. Forty‐two (21%) had delirium based on the clinical reference standard. Twenty (10%) had less than a high school education and 100 (49%) had at least a college education.
Characteristic | N (%) |
---|---|
| |
Age, y, mean (SD) | 84 (5.4) |
Sex, n (%) female | 125 (62) |
White, n (%) | 177 (88) |
Education, n (%) | |
Less than high school | 20 (10) |
High school graduate | 75 (38) |
College plus | 100 (49) |
Vision interfered with interview, n (%) | 5 (2) |
Hearing interfered with interview, n (%) | 18 (9) |
English second language n (%) | 10 (5) |
Charlson, mean (SD) | 3 (2.3) |
ADL, n (% impaired) | 110 (55) |
IADL, n (% impaired) | 163 (81) |
MCI, n (%) | 50 (25) |
Dementia, n (%) | 56 (28) |
Delirium, n (%) | 42 (21) |
MoCA, mean (SD) | 19 (6.6) |
MoCA, median (range) | 20 (030) |
Single Item Screens
Table 2 reports the results of single‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, the ability to correctly identify delirium when it is present by the reference standard, and specificity, the ability to correctly identify patients without delirium when it is not present by reference standard and 95% CIs. Items are listed in descending order of sensitivity; in the case of ties, the item with the higher specificity is listed first. The screening items with the highest sensitivity for delirium are Months of the year backwards, and Four digits backwards, both with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI: 69%‐93%). Of these 2 items, Months of the year backwards had a much better specificity of 69% (95% CI: 61%‐76%), whereas Four digits backwards had a specificity of 52% (95% CI: 44%‐60%). The item What is the day of the week? had lower sensitivity at 71% (95% CI: 55%‐84%), but excellent specificity at 92% (95% CI: 87%‐96%).
Screen Item | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Months of the year backwards | 42 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.76) | 2.7 | 0.24 |
Four digits backwards | 56 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.52 (0.44‐0.60) | 1.72 | 0.32 |
What is the day of the week? | 21 | 0.71 (0.55‐0.84) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 9.46 | 0.31 |
What is the year? | 16 | 0.55 (0.39‐0.70) | 0.94 (0.9‐0.97) | 9.67 | 0.48 |
Have you felt confused during the past day? | 14 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.95 (0.9‐0.98) | 9.94 | 0.53 |
Days of the week backwards | 15 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.94 (0.89‐0.97) | 7.95 | 0.53 |
During the past day, did you see things that were not really there? | 11 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 17.98 | 0.56 |
Three digits backwards | 15 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 5.99 | 0.59 |
What type of place is this? | 9 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.99 (0.96‐1) | 30.29 | 0.63 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | 10 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 15.14 | 0.64 |
We then examined performance of single‐item screeners in patients with and without dementia (Table 3). In persons with dementia, the best single item was also Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI: 72%‐98%) and a specificity of 61% (95% CI: 41%‐78%). In persons with normal baseline cognition or MCI, the best performing single item was Four digits backwards, with sensitivity of 79% (95% CI: 49%‐95%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 42%‐60%). Months of the year backwards also performed well, with sensitivity of 71% (95% CI: 42%‐92%) and specificity of 71% (95% CI: 62%‐79%).
Test Item | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | |
| ||||||||||
Months backwards | 33 | 0.71 (0.42‐0.92) | 0.71 (0.62‐0.79) | 2.46 | 0.4 | 64 | 0.89 (0.72‐0.98) | 0.61 (0.41‐0.78) | 2.27 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | 52 | 0.79 (0.49‐0.95) | 0.51 (0.42‐0.60) | 1.61 | 0.42 | 66 | 0.86 (0.67‐0.96) | 0.54 (0.34‐0.72) | 1.85 | 0.27 |
What is the day of the week? | 10 | 0.64 (0.35‐0.87) | 0.96 (0.91‐0.99) | 16.84 | 0.37 | 50 | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 3 | 0.33 |
Two‐Item Screens
Table 4 reports the results of 2‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, specificity, and 95% CIs. Item pairs are listed in descending order of sensitivity following the same convention as in Table 2. The 2‐item screen with the highest sensitivity for delirium is the combination of What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%) and specificity of 64% (95% CI: 56%‐70%). This screen had a positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 2.59 and 0.11, respectively. The combination of What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards had the same sensitivity 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%), but lower specificity of 48% (95% CI: 40%‐56%). The combination of What type of place is this? (hospital) and Four digits backwards had a sensitivity of 90% (95% CI: 77%‐97%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 43%‐50%).
Screen Item 1 | Screen Item 2 | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 48 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.64 (0.56‐0.70) | 2.59 | 0.11 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 60 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.48 (0.4‐0.56) | 1.8 | 0.15 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 65 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.42 (0.34‐0.50) | 1.6 | 0.17 |
What type of place is this? | Four digits backwards | 58 | 0.90 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.51 (0.43‐0.50) | 1.84 | 0.19 |
What is the year? | Four digits backwards | 59 | 0.9 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.5) | 1.80 | 0.19 |
What is the day of the week? | Three digits backwards | 30 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.86 (0.79‐0.90) | 6.09 | 0.14 |
What is the year? | Months backwards | 44 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.75 | 0.18 |
What type of place is this? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
Days of the week backwards | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.67 | 0.21 |
When subjects were stratified by baseline cognition, the best 2‐item screens for normal and MCI patients was What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards, with 93% sensitivity (95% CI: 66%‐100%) and 50% specificity (95% CI: 42%‐59%). The best pair of items for patients with dementia (Table 5) was the same as the overall sample, What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, but its performance differed with a higher sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 82%‐100%) and lower specificity of 43% (95% CI: 24%‐63%). This same pair of items had 86% sensitivity (95% CI: 57%‐98%) and 69% (95% CI: 60%‐77%) specificity for persons with either normal cognition or MCI.
Test Item 1 | Test Item 2 | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | ||
| |||||||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 36 | 0.86 (0.57‐0.98) | 0.69 (0.60‐0.77) | 2.74 | 0.21 | 77 | 0.96 (0.82‐1) | 0.43 (0.24‐0.63) | 1.69 | 0.08 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 54 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.59) | 1.87 | 0.14 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 61 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.43 (0.34‐0.52) | 1.62 | 0.17 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Altered Level of Consciousness as a Screener for Delirium
Altered level of consciousness (ALOC) was uncommon in our sample, with an overall prevalence of 10/201 (4.9%). When examined as a screening item for delirium, ALOC had very poor sensitivity of 19% (95% CI: 9%‐34%) but had excellent specificity 99% (95% CI: 96%‐100%). Altered LOC also demonstrated poor screening performance when stratified by cognitive status, with a sensitivity of 14% in the normal and MCI group (95% CI: 2%‐43%) and sensitivity of 21% (95% CI: 8%‐41%) in persons with dementia.
Positive and Negative Predictive Values
Although we focused on sensitivity and specificity in evaluating 1‐ and 2‐item screeners, we also examined positive and negative predictive values. These values will vary depending on the overall prevalence of delirium, which was 21% in this dataset. The best 1‐item screener, Months of the year backwards, had a positive predictive value of 31% and negative predictive value of 94%. The best 2‐item screener, Months of the year backwards with What is the day of the week?, had a positive predictive value of 41% and negative predictive value of 97% (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article) LRs for the items are in Tables 2 through 5.
DISCUSSION
Identifying simple, efficient, bedside case‐identification methods for delirium is an essential step toward improving recognition of this highly morbid syndrome in hospitalized older adults. In this study, we identified a single cognitive item, Months of the year backwards, that identified 83% of delirium cases when compared with a reference standard diagnosis. Furthermore, we identified 2 items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week? which when used in combination identified 93% of delirium cases. The same 1 and 2 items also worked well in patients with dementia, in whom delirium is often missed. Although these items require further clinical validation, the development of an ultrabrief 2‐item test that identifies over 90% of delirium cases and can be completed in less than 1 minute (recently, we administered the best 2‐item screener to 20 consecutive general medicine patients over age 70 years, and it was completed in a median of 36.5 seconds), holds great potential for simplifying bedside delirium screening and improving the care of hospitalized older adults.
Our current findings both confirm and extend the emerging literature on best screening items for delirium. Sands and colleagues (2010)[26] tested a single test for delirium, Do you think (name of patient) has been more confused lately? in 21 subjects and achieved a sensitivity of 80%. Han and colleagues developed a screening tool in emergency‐department patients using the LOC question from the Richmond Agitation‐Sedation Scale and spelling the word lunch backwards, and achieved 98% sensitivity, but in a younger emergency department population with a low prevalence of dementia.[27] O'Regan et al. recently also found Months of the year backwards to be the best single‐screening item for delirium in a large sample, but only tested a 1‐item screen.[28] Our study extends these studies in several important ways by: (1) employing a rigorous clinical reference standard diagnosis of delirium, (2) having a large sample with a high prevalence of patients with dementia, (3) use of a general medical population, and (4) examining the best 2‐item screens in addition to the best single item.
Systematic intervention programs[29, 30, 31] that focus on improved delirium evaluation and management have the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs. However, targeting these programs to patients with delirium has proven difficult, as only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are recognized in routine clinical practice.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15] The 1‐ and 2‐item screeners we identified could play an important role in future delirium identification. The 3D‐CAM combines high sensitivity (95%) with high specificity (94%)[16] and therefore would be an excellent choice as the second step after a positive screen. The feasibility, effectiveness, and cost of administering these screeners, followed by a brief diagnostic tool such as the 3D‐CAM, should be evaluated in future work.
Our study has noteworthy strengths, including the use of a large purposefully challenging clinical sample with advanced age that included a substantial proportion with dementia, a detailed assessment, and the testing of very brief and practical tools for bedside delirium screening.[25] This study also has several important limitations. Most importantly, we presented secondary analysis of individual items and pairs of items drawn from the 3D CAM assessment; therefore, the 2‐item bedside screen requires prospective clinical validation. The reference standard was based on the DSM‐IV, because this study was conducted prior to the release of DSM‐V. In addition, the ordering of the reference standard and 3D‐CAM assessments was not randomized due to feasibility constraints. In addition, this study was cross‐sectional, involved only a single hospital, and enrolled only older medical patients during the day shift. Our sample was older (aged 75 years and older), and a younger sample may have had a different prevalence of delirium, which could affect the positive predictive value of our ultrabrief screen. We plan to test this in a sample of patients aged 70 years and older in future studies. Finally, it should be noted that these best 1‐item and 2‐item screeners miss 17% and 7% of delirium cases, respectively. In cases where this is unacceptably high, alternative approaches might be necessary.
It is important to remember that these 1‐ and 2‐item screeners are not diagnostic tools and therefore should not be used in isolation. Optimally, they will be followed by a more specific evaluation, such as the 3D‐CAM, as part of a systematic delirium identification process. For instance, in our sample (with a delirium rate of 21%), the best 2‐item screener had a positive predictive value of 41%, meaning that positive screens are more likely to be false positives than true positives (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article).[32] Nevertheless, by reducing the total number of patients who require diagnostic instrument administration, use of these ultrabrief screeners can improve efficiency and result in a net benefit to delirium case‐identification efforts.[32]
Time has been demonstrated to be a barrier to delirium identification in previous studies, but there are likely others. These may include, for instance, staff nihilism about screening making a difference, ambiguous responsibility for delirium screening and management, unsupportive system leadership, and absent payment for these activities.[31] Moreover, it is possible that the 2‐step process we propose may create an incentive for staff to avoid positive screens as they see it creating more work for themselves. We plan to identify and address such barriers in our future work.
In conclusion, we identified a single screening item for delirium, Months of the year backwards, with 83% sensitivity, and a pair of items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week?, with 93% sensitivity relative to a rigorous reference standard diagnosis. These ultrabrief screening items work well in patients with and without dementia, and should require very little training of staff. Future studies should further validate these tools, and determine their translatability and scalability into programs for systematic, widespread delirium detection. Developing efficient and accurate case identification strategies is a necessary prerequisite to appropriately target delirium management protocols, enabling healthcare systems to effectively address this costly and deadly condition.
Disclosures
Author contributionsD.M.F. conceived the study idea, participated in its design and coordination, and drafted the initial manuscript. S.K.I. contributed to the study design and conceptualization, supervision, funding, preliminary analysis, and interpretation of the data, and critical revision of the manuscript. J.G. conducted the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. L.N. supervised the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. R.J. contributed to the study design and critical revision of the manuscript. J.S.S. critically revised the manuscript. E.R.M. obtained funding for the study, supervised all data collection, assisted in drafting and critically revising the manuscript, and contributed to the conceptualization, design, and supervision of the study. All authors have seen and agree with the contents of the manuscript.
This work was supported by the National Institute of Aging grant number R01AG030618 and K24AG035075 to Dr. Marcantonio. Dr. Inouye's time was supported in part by grants P01AG031720, R01AG044518, and K07AG041835 from the National Institute on Aging. Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair (Hebrew Senior Life/Harvard Medical School). Dr. Fick is partially supported from National Institute of Nursing Research grant number R01 NR011042. Dr. Saczynski was supported in part by funding from the National Institute on Aging (K01AG33643) and from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (U01HL105268). The funding agencies had no role and the authors retained full autonomy in the preparation of this article. All authors and coauthors have no financial or nonfinancial conflicts of interest to disclose regarding this article.
This article was presented at the Presidential Poster Session at the American Geriatrics Society 2014 Annual Meeting in Orlando, Florida, May 14, 2014.
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- Recorded delirium in a national sample of elderly inpatients: potential implications for recognition. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol. 2003;16(1):32–38. , , ,
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- 3D‐CAM: Derivation and validation of a 3‐minute diagnostic interview for CAM‐defined delirium: a cross‐sectional diagnostic test study. Ann Intern Med. 2014;161(8):554–561. , , , et al.
- Selecting optimal screening items for delirium: an application of item response theory. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2013;13:8. , , , et al.
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Delirium (acute confusion) is common in older adults and leads to poor outcomes, such as death, clinician and caregiver burden, and prolonged cognitive and functional decline.[1, 2, 3, 4] Delirium is extremely costly, with estimates ranging from $143 to $152 billion annually (2005 US$).[5, 6] Early detection and management may improve the poor outcomes and reduce costs attributable to delirium,[3, 7] yet delirium identification in clinical practice has been challenging, particularly when translating research tools to the bedside.[8, 9, 10]As a result, only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are detected in routine care, with hypoactive delirium and delirium superimposed on dementia most likely to be missed.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15]
To address these issues, we recently developed and published the three‐dimensional Confusion Assessment Method (3D‐CAM), the 3‐minute diagnostic assessment for CAM‐defined delirium.[16] The 3D‐CAM is a structured assessment tool that includes mental status testing, patient symptom probes, and guided interviewer observations for signs of delirium. 3D‐CAM items were selected through a rigorous process to determine the most informative items for the 4 CAM diagnostic features.[17] The 3D‐CAM can be completed in 3 minutes, and has 95% sensitivity and 94% specificity relative to a reference standard.[16]
Despite the capabilities of the 3D‐CAM, there are situations when even 3 minutes is too long to devote to delirium identification. Moreover, a 2‐step approach in which a sensitive ultrabrief screen is administered, followed by the 3D‐CAM in positives, may be the most efficient approach for large‐scale delirium case identification. The aim of the current study was to use the 3D‐CAM database to identify the most sensitive single item and pair of items in the diagnosis of delirium, using the reference standard in the diagnostic accuracy analysis. We hypothesized that we could identify a single item with greater than 80% sensitivity and a pair of items with greater than 90% sensitivity for detection of delirium.
METHODS
Study Sample and Design
We analyzed data from the 3D‐CAM validation study,[16] which prospectively enrolled participants from a large urban teaching hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, using a consecutive enrollment sampling strategy. Inclusion criteria were: (1) 75 years old, (2) admitted to general or geriatric medicine services, (3) able to communicate in English, (4) without terminal conditions, (5) expected hospital stay of 2 days, (6) not a previous study participant. Experienced clinicians screened patients for eligibility. If the patient lacked capacity to provide consent, the designated surrogate decision maker was contacted. The study was approved by the institutional review board.
Reference Standard Delirium Diagnosis
The reference standard delirium diagnosis was based on an extensive (45 minutes) face‐to‐face patient interview by experienced clinician assessors (neuropsychologists or advanced practice nurses), medical record review, and input from the nurse and family members. This comprehensive assessment included: (1) reason for hospital admission, hospital course, and presence of cognitive concerns, (2) family, social, and functional history, (3) Montreal Cognitive Assessment,[18] (4) Geriatric Depression Scale,[19] (5) medical record review including scoring of comorbidities using the Charlson index,[20] determination of functional status using the basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living,[21, 22] psychoactive medications administered, and (6) a family member interview to assess the patient's baseline cognitive status that included the Eight‐Item Interview to Differentiate Aging and Dementia,[23] to assess the presence of dementia. Using all of these data, an expert panel, including the clinical assessor, the study principal investigator (E.R.M.), a geriatrician, and an experienced neuropsychologist, adjudicated the final delirium diagnoses using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM‐IV) criteria. The panel also adjudicated for the presence or absence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment based on National Institute on Aging‐Alzheimer's Association (NIA‐AA) criteria.[24] This approach has been used in other delirium studies.[25]
3D‐CAM Assessments
After the reference standard assessment, the 3D‐CAM was administered by trained research assistants (RAs) who were blinded to the results of the reference standard. To reduce the likelihood of fluctuations or temporal changes, all assessments were completed between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm and for each participant, within a 2‐hour time period (for example, 11:23 am to 1:23 pm).
Statistical Analyses to Determine the Best Single‐ and Two‐Item Screeners
To determine the best single 3D‐CAM item to identify delirium, the responses of the 20 individual items in the 3D‐CAM (see Supporting Table 1 in the online version of this article) were compared to the reference standard to determine their sensitivity and specificity. Similarly, an algorithm was used to generate all unique 2‐item combinations of the 20 items (190 unique pairs), which were compared to the reference. An error, no response, or an answer of I do not know by the patient was considered a positive screen for delirium. The 2‐item screeners were considered positive if 1 or both of the items were positive. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Subset analyses were performed to determine sensitivity and specificity of individual items and pairs of items stratified by the patient's baseline cognitive status. Two strata were createdpatients with dementia (N=56), and patients with normal baseline cognitive status or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (N=145). We chose to group MCI with normal for 2 reasons: (1) dementia is a well‐established and strong risk factor for delirium, whereas the evidence for MCI being a risk factor for delirium is less established and (2) to achieve adequate allocation of delirious cases in both strata. Last, we report the sensitivity of altered level of consciousness (LOC), which included lethargy, stupor, coma, and hypervigilance as a single screening item for delirium in the overall sample and by cognitive status. Analyses were conducted using commercially available software (SAS version 9.3; SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC).
RESULTS
Characteristics of the patients are shown in Table 1. Subjects had a mean age of 84 years, 62% were female, and 28% had a baseline dementia. Forty‐two (21%) had delirium based on the clinical reference standard. Twenty (10%) had less than a high school education and 100 (49%) had at least a college education.
Characteristic | N (%) |
---|---|
| |
Age, y, mean (SD) | 84 (5.4) |
Sex, n (%) female | 125 (62) |
White, n (%) | 177 (88) |
Education, n (%) | |
Less than high school | 20 (10) |
High school graduate | 75 (38) |
College plus | 100 (49) |
Vision interfered with interview, n (%) | 5 (2) |
Hearing interfered with interview, n (%) | 18 (9) |
English second language n (%) | 10 (5) |
Charlson, mean (SD) | 3 (2.3) |
ADL, n (% impaired) | 110 (55) |
IADL, n (% impaired) | 163 (81) |
MCI, n (%) | 50 (25) |
Dementia, n (%) | 56 (28) |
Delirium, n (%) | 42 (21) |
MoCA, mean (SD) | 19 (6.6) |
MoCA, median (range) | 20 (030) |
Single Item Screens
Table 2 reports the results of single‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, the ability to correctly identify delirium when it is present by the reference standard, and specificity, the ability to correctly identify patients without delirium when it is not present by reference standard and 95% CIs. Items are listed in descending order of sensitivity; in the case of ties, the item with the higher specificity is listed first. The screening items with the highest sensitivity for delirium are Months of the year backwards, and Four digits backwards, both with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI: 69%‐93%). Of these 2 items, Months of the year backwards had a much better specificity of 69% (95% CI: 61%‐76%), whereas Four digits backwards had a specificity of 52% (95% CI: 44%‐60%). The item What is the day of the week? had lower sensitivity at 71% (95% CI: 55%‐84%), but excellent specificity at 92% (95% CI: 87%‐96%).
Screen Item | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Months of the year backwards | 42 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.76) | 2.7 | 0.24 |
Four digits backwards | 56 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.52 (0.44‐0.60) | 1.72 | 0.32 |
What is the day of the week? | 21 | 0.71 (0.55‐0.84) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 9.46 | 0.31 |
What is the year? | 16 | 0.55 (0.39‐0.70) | 0.94 (0.9‐0.97) | 9.67 | 0.48 |
Have you felt confused during the past day? | 14 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.95 (0.9‐0.98) | 9.94 | 0.53 |
Days of the week backwards | 15 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.94 (0.89‐0.97) | 7.95 | 0.53 |
During the past day, did you see things that were not really there? | 11 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 17.98 | 0.56 |
Three digits backwards | 15 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 5.99 | 0.59 |
What type of place is this? | 9 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.99 (0.96‐1) | 30.29 | 0.63 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | 10 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 15.14 | 0.64 |
We then examined performance of single‐item screeners in patients with and without dementia (Table 3). In persons with dementia, the best single item was also Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI: 72%‐98%) and a specificity of 61% (95% CI: 41%‐78%). In persons with normal baseline cognition or MCI, the best performing single item was Four digits backwards, with sensitivity of 79% (95% CI: 49%‐95%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 42%‐60%). Months of the year backwards also performed well, with sensitivity of 71% (95% CI: 42%‐92%) and specificity of 71% (95% CI: 62%‐79%).
Test Item | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | |
| ||||||||||
Months backwards | 33 | 0.71 (0.42‐0.92) | 0.71 (0.62‐0.79) | 2.46 | 0.4 | 64 | 0.89 (0.72‐0.98) | 0.61 (0.41‐0.78) | 2.27 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | 52 | 0.79 (0.49‐0.95) | 0.51 (0.42‐0.60) | 1.61 | 0.42 | 66 | 0.86 (0.67‐0.96) | 0.54 (0.34‐0.72) | 1.85 | 0.27 |
What is the day of the week? | 10 | 0.64 (0.35‐0.87) | 0.96 (0.91‐0.99) | 16.84 | 0.37 | 50 | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 3 | 0.33 |
Two‐Item Screens
Table 4 reports the results of 2‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, specificity, and 95% CIs. Item pairs are listed in descending order of sensitivity following the same convention as in Table 2. The 2‐item screen with the highest sensitivity for delirium is the combination of What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%) and specificity of 64% (95% CI: 56%‐70%). This screen had a positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 2.59 and 0.11, respectively. The combination of What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards had the same sensitivity 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%), but lower specificity of 48% (95% CI: 40%‐56%). The combination of What type of place is this? (hospital) and Four digits backwards had a sensitivity of 90% (95% CI: 77%‐97%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 43%‐50%).
Screen Item 1 | Screen Item 2 | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 48 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.64 (0.56‐0.70) | 2.59 | 0.11 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 60 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.48 (0.4‐0.56) | 1.8 | 0.15 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 65 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.42 (0.34‐0.50) | 1.6 | 0.17 |
What type of place is this? | Four digits backwards | 58 | 0.90 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.51 (0.43‐0.50) | 1.84 | 0.19 |
What is the year? | Four digits backwards | 59 | 0.9 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.5) | 1.80 | 0.19 |
What is the day of the week? | Three digits backwards | 30 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.86 (0.79‐0.90) | 6.09 | 0.14 |
What is the year? | Months backwards | 44 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.75 | 0.18 |
What type of place is this? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
Days of the week backwards | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.67 | 0.21 |
When subjects were stratified by baseline cognition, the best 2‐item screens for normal and MCI patients was What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards, with 93% sensitivity (95% CI: 66%‐100%) and 50% specificity (95% CI: 42%‐59%). The best pair of items for patients with dementia (Table 5) was the same as the overall sample, What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, but its performance differed with a higher sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 82%‐100%) and lower specificity of 43% (95% CI: 24%‐63%). This same pair of items had 86% sensitivity (95% CI: 57%‐98%) and 69% (95% CI: 60%‐77%) specificity for persons with either normal cognition or MCI.
Test Item 1 | Test Item 2 | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | ||
| |||||||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 36 | 0.86 (0.57‐0.98) | 0.69 (0.60‐0.77) | 2.74 | 0.21 | 77 | 0.96 (0.82‐1) | 0.43 (0.24‐0.63) | 1.69 | 0.08 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 54 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.59) | 1.87 | 0.14 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 61 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.43 (0.34‐0.52) | 1.62 | 0.17 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Altered Level of Consciousness as a Screener for Delirium
Altered level of consciousness (ALOC) was uncommon in our sample, with an overall prevalence of 10/201 (4.9%). When examined as a screening item for delirium, ALOC had very poor sensitivity of 19% (95% CI: 9%‐34%) but had excellent specificity 99% (95% CI: 96%‐100%). Altered LOC also demonstrated poor screening performance when stratified by cognitive status, with a sensitivity of 14% in the normal and MCI group (95% CI: 2%‐43%) and sensitivity of 21% (95% CI: 8%‐41%) in persons with dementia.
Positive and Negative Predictive Values
Although we focused on sensitivity and specificity in evaluating 1‐ and 2‐item screeners, we also examined positive and negative predictive values. These values will vary depending on the overall prevalence of delirium, which was 21% in this dataset. The best 1‐item screener, Months of the year backwards, had a positive predictive value of 31% and negative predictive value of 94%. The best 2‐item screener, Months of the year backwards with What is the day of the week?, had a positive predictive value of 41% and negative predictive value of 97% (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article) LRs for the items are in Tables 2 through 5.
DISCUSSION
Identifying simple, efficient, bedside case‐identification methods for delirium is an essential step toward improving recognition of this highly morbid syndrome in hospitalized older adults. In this study, we identified a single cognitive item, Months of the year backwards, that identified 83% of delirium cases when compared with a reference standard diagnosis. Furthermore, we identified 2 items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week? which when used in combination identified 93% of delirium cases. The same 1 and 2 items also worked well in patients with dementia, in whom delirium is often missed. Although these items require further clinical validation, the development of an ultrabrief 2‐item test that identifies over 90% of delirium cases and can be completed in less than 1 minute (recently, we administered the best 2‐item screener to 20 consecutive general medicine patients over age 70 years, and it was completed in a median of 36.5 seconds), holds great potential for simplifying bedside delirium screening and improving the care of hospitalized older adults.
Our current findings both confirm and extend the emerging literature on best screening items for delirium. Sands and colleagues (2010)[26] tested a single test for delirium, Do you think (name of patient) has been more confused lately? in 21 subjects and achieved a sensitivity of 80%. Han and colleagues developed a screening tool in emergency‐department patients using the LOC question from the Richmond Agitation‐Sedation Scale and spelling the word lunch backwards, and achieved 98% sensitivity, but in a younger emergency department population with a low prevalence of dementia.[27] O'Regan et al. recently also found Months of the year backwards to be the best single‐screening item for delirium in a large sample, but only tested a 1‐item screen.[28] Our study extends these studies in several important ways by: (1) employing a rigorous clinical reference standard diagnosis of delirium, (2) having a large sample with a high prevalence of patients with dementia, (3) use of a general medical population, and (4) examining the best 2‐item screens in addition to the best single item.
Systematic intervention programs[29, 30, 31] that focus on improved delirium evaluation and management have the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs. However, targeting these programs to patients with delirium has proven difficult, as only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are recognized in routine clinical practice.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15] The 1‐ and 2‐item screeners we identified could play an important role in future delirium identification. The 3D‐CAM combines high sensitivity (95%) with high specificity (94%)[16] and therefore would be an excellent choice as the second step after a positive screen. The feasibility, effectiveness, and cost of administering these screeners, followed by a brief diagnostic tool such as the 3D‐CAM, should be evaluated in future work.
Our study has noteworthy strengths, including the use of a large purposefully challenging clinical sample with advanced age that included a substantial proportion with dementia, a detailed assessment, and the testing of very brief and practical tools for bedside delirium screening.[25] This study also has several important limitations. Most importantly, we presented secondary analysis of individual items and pairs of items drawn from the 3D CAM assessment; therefore, the 2‐item bedside screen requires prospective clinical validation. The reference standard was based on the DSM‐IV, because this study was conducted prior to the release of DSM‐V. In addition, the ordering of the reference standard and 3D‐CAM assessments was not randomized due to feasibility constraints. In addition, this study was cross‐sectional, involved only a single hospital, and enrolled only older medical patients during the day shift. Our sample was older (aged 75 years and older), and a younger sample may have had a different prevalence of delirium, which could affect the positive predictive value of our ultrabrief screen. We plan to test this in a sample of patients aged 70 years and older in future studies. Finally, it should be noted that these best 1‐item and 2‐item screeners miss 17% and 7% of delirium cases, respectively. In cases where this is unacceptably high, alternative approaches might be necessary.
It is important to remember that these 1‐ and 2‐item screeners are not diagnostic tools and therefore should not be used in isolation. Optimally, they will be followed by a more specific evaluation, such as the 3D‐CAM, as part of a systematic delirium identification process. For instance, in our sample (with a delirium rate of 21%), the best 2‐item screener had a positive predictive value of 41%, meaning that positive screens are more likely to be false positives than true positives (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article).[32] Nevertheless, by reducing the total number of patients who require diagnostic instrument administration, use of these ultrabrief screeners can improve efficiency and result in a net benefit to delirium case‐identification efforts.[32]
Time has been demonstrated to be a barrier to delirium identification in previous studies, but there are likely others. These may include, for instance, staff nihilism about screening making a difference, ambiguous responsibility for delirium screening and management, unsupportive system leadership, and absent payment for these activities.[31] Moreover, it is possible that the 2‐step process we propose may create an incentive for staff to avoid positive screens as they see it creating more work for themselves. We plan to identify and address such barriers in our future work.
In conclusion, we identified a single screening item for delirium, Months of the year backwards, with 83% sensitivity, and a pair of items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week?, with 93% sensitivity relative to a rigorous reference standard diagnosis. These ultrabrief screening items work well in patients with and without dementia, and should require very little training of staff. Future studies should further validate these tools, and determine their translatability and scalability into programs for systematic, widespread delirium detection. Developing efficient and accurate case identification strategies is a necessary prerequisite to appropriately target delirium management protocols, enabling healthcare systems to effectively address this costly and deadly condition.
Disclosures
Author contributionsD.M.F. conceived the study idea, participated in its design and coordination, and drafted the initial manuscript. S.K.I. contributed to the study design and conceptualization, supervision, funding, preliminary analysis, and interpretation of the data, and critical revision of the manuscript. J.G. conducted the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. L.N. supervised the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. R.J. contributed to the study design and critical revision of the manuscript. J.S.S. critically revised the manuscript. E.R.M. obtained funding for the study, supervised all data collection, assisted in drafting and critically revising the manuscript, and contributed to the conceptualization, design, and supervision of the study. All authors have seen and agree with the contents of the manuscript.
This work was supported by the National Institute of Aging grant number R01AG030618 and K24AG035075 to Dr. Marcantonio. Dr. Inouye's time was supported in part by grants P01AG031720, R01AG044518, and K07AG041835 from the National Institute on Aging. Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair (Hebrew Senior Life/Harvard Medical School). Dr. Fick is partially supported from National Institute of Nursing Research grant number R01 NR011042. Dr. Saczynski was supported in part by funding from the National Institute on Aging (K01AG33643) and from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (U01HL105268). The funding agencies had no role and the authors retained full autonomy in the preparation of this article. All authors and coauthors have no financial or nonfinancial conflicts of interest to disclose regarding this article.
This article was presented at the Presidential Poster Session at the American Geriatrics Society 2014 Annual Meeting in Orlando, Florida, May 14, 2014.
Delirium (acute confusion) is common in older adults and leads to poor outcomes, such as death, clinician and caregiver burden, and prolonged cognitive and functional decline.[1, 2, 3, 4] Delirium is extremely costly, with estimates ranging from $143 to $152 billion annually (2005 US$).[5, 6] Early detection and management may improve the poor outcomes and reduce costs attributable to delirium,[3, 7] yet delirium identification in clinical practice has been challenging, particularly when translating research tools to the bedside.[8, 9, 10]As a result, only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are detected in routine care, with hypoactive delirium and delirium superimposed on dementia most likely to be missed.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15]
To address these issues, we recently developed and published the three‐dimensional Confusion Assessment Method (3D‐CAM), the 3‐minute diagnostic assessment for CAM‐defined delirium.[16] The 3D‐CAM is a structured assessment tool that includes mental status testing, patient symptom probes, and guided interviewer observations for signs of delirium. 3D‐CAM items were selected through a rigorous process to determine the most informative items for the 4 CAM diagnostic features.[17] The 3D‐CAM can be completed in 3 minutes, and has 95% sensitivity and 94% specificity relative to a reference standard.[16]
Despite the capabilities of the 3D‐CAM, there are situations when even 3 minutes is too long to devote to delirium identification. Moreover, a 2‐step approach in which a sensitive ultrabrief screen is administered, followed by the 3D‐CAM in positives, may be the most efficient approach for large‐scale delirium case identification. The aim of the current study was to use the 3D‐CAM database to identify the most sensitive single item and pair of items in the diagnosis of delirium, using the reference standard in the diagnostic accuracy analysis. We hypothesized that we could identify a single item with greater than 80% sensitivity and a pair of items with greater than 90% sensitivity for detection of delirium.
METHODS
Study Sample and Design
We analyzed data from the 3D‐CAM validation study,[16] which prospectively enrolled participants from a large urban teaching hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, using a consecutive enrollment sampling strategy. Inclusion criteria were: (1) 75 years old, (2) admitted to general or geriatric medicine services, (3) able to communicate in English, (4) without terminal conditions, (5) expected hospital stay of 2 days, (6) not a previous study participant. Experienced clinicians screened patients for eligibility. If the patient lacked capacity to provide consent, the designated surrogate decision maker was contacted. The study was approved by the institutional review board.
Reference Standard Delirium Diagnosis
The reference standard delirium diagnosis was based on an extensive (45 minutes) face‐to‐face patient interview by experienced clinician assessors (neuropsychologists or advanced practice nurses), medical record review, and input from the nurse and family members. This comprehensive assessment included: (1) reason for hospital admission, hospital course, and presence of cognitive concerns, (2) family, social, and functional history, (3) Montreal Cognitive Assessment,[18] (4) Geriatric Depression Scale,[19] (5) medical record review including scoring of comorbidities using the Charlson index,[20] determination of functional status using the basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living,[21, 22] psychoactive medications administered, and (6) a family member interview to assess the patient's baseline cognitive status that included the Eight‐Item Interview to Differentiate Aging and Dementia,[23] to assess the presence of dementia. Using all of these data, an expert panel, including the clinical assessor, the study principal investigator (E.R.M.), a geriatrician, and an experienced neuropsychologist, adjudicated the final delirium diagnoses using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM‐IV) criteria. The panel also adjudicated for the presence or absence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment based on National Institute on Aging‐Alzheimer's Association (NIA‐AA) criteria.[24] This approach has been used in other delirium studies.[25]
3D‐CAM Assessments
After the reference standard assessment, the 3D‐CAM was administered by trained research assistants (RAs) who were blinded to the results of the reference standard. To reduce the likelihood of fluctuations or temporal changes, all assessments were completed between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm and for each participant, within a 2‐hour time period (for example, 11:23 am to 1:23 pm).
Statistical Analyses to Determine the Best Single‐ and Two‐Item Screeners
To determine the best single 3D‐CAM item to identify delirium, the responses of the 20 individual items in the 3D‐CAM (see Supporting Table 1 in the online version of this article) were compared to the reference standard to determine their sensitivity and specificity. Similarly, an algorithm was used to generate all unique 2‐item combinations of the 20 items (190 unique pairs), which were compared to the reference. An error, no response, or an answer of I do not know by the patient was considered a positive screen for delirium. The 2‐item screeners were considered positive if 1 or both of the items were positive. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Subset analyses were performed to determine sensitivity and specificity of individual items and pairs of items stratified by the patient's baseline cognitive status. Two strata were createdpatients with dementia (N=56), and patients with normal baseline cognitive status or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (N=145). We chose to group MCI with normal for 2 reasons: (1) dementia is a well‐established and strong risk factor for delirium, whereas the evidence for MCI being a risk factor for delirium is less established and (2) to achieve adequate allocation of delirious cases in both strata. Last, we report the sensitivity of altered level of consciousness (LOC), which included lethargy, stupor, coma, and hypervigilance as a single screening item for delirium in the overall sample and by cognitive status. Analyses were conducted using commercially available software (SAS version 9.3; SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC).
RESULTS
Characteristics of the patients are shown in Table 1. Subjects had a mean age of 84 years, 62% were female, and 28% had a baseline dementia. Forty‐two (21%) had delirium based on the clinical reference standard. Twenty (10%) had less than a high school education and 100 (49%) had at least a college education.
Characteristic | N (%) |
---|---|
| |
Age, y, mean (SD) | 84 (5.4) |
Sex, n (%) female | 125 (62) |
White, n (%) | 177 (88) |
Education, n (%) | |
Less than high school | 20 (10) |
High school graduate | 75 (38) |
College plus | 100 (49) |
Vision interfered with interview, n (%) | 5 (2) |
Hearing interfered with interview, n (%) | 18 (9) |
English second language n (%) | 10 (5) |
Charlson, mean (SD) | 3 (2.3) |
ADL, n (% impaired) | 110 (55) |
IADL, n (% impaired) | 163 (81) |
MCI, n (%) | 50 (25) |
Dementia, n (%) | 56 (28) |
Delirium, n (%) | 42 (21) |
MoCA, mean (SD) | 19 (6.6) |
MoCA, median (range) | 20 (030) |
Single Item Screens
Table 2 reports the results of single‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, the ability to correctly identify delirium when it is present by the reference standard, and specificity, the ability to correctly identify patients without delirium when it is not present by reference standard and 95% CIs. Items are listed in descending order of sensitivity; in the case of ties, the item with the higher specificity is listed first. The screening items with the highest sensitivity for delirium are Months of the year backwards, and Four digits backwards, both with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI: 69%‐93%). Of these 2 items, Months of the year backwards had a much better specificity of 69% (95% CI: 61%‐76%), whereas Four digits backwards had a specificity of 52% (95% CI: 44%‐60%). The item What is the day of the week? had lower sensitivity at 71% (95% CI: 55%‐84%), but excellent specificity at 92% (95% CI: 87%‐96%).
Screen Item | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Months of the year backwards | 42 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.76) | 2.7 | 0.24 |
Four digits backwards | 56 | 0.83 (0.69‐0.93) | 0.52 (0.44‐0.60) | 1.72 | 0.32 |
What is the day of the week? | 21 | 0.71 (0.55‐0.84) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 9.46 | 0.31 |
What is the year? | 16 | 0.55 (0.39‐0.70) | 0.94 (0.9‐0.97) | 9.67 | 0.48 |
Have you felt confused during the past day? | 14 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.95 (0.9‐0.98) | 9.94 | 0.53 |
Days of the week backwards | 15 | 0.50 (0.34‐0.66) | 0.94 (0.89‐0.97) | 7.95 | 0.53 |
During the past day, did you see things that were not really there? | 11 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 17.98 | 0.56 |
Three digits backwards | 15 | 0.45 (0.3‐0.61) | 0.92 (0.87‐0.96) | 5.99 | 0.59 |
What type of place is this? | 9 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.99 (0.96‐1) | 30.29 | 0.63 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | 10 | 0.38 (0.24‐0.54) | 0.97 (0.94‐0.99) | 15.14 | 0.64 |
We then examined performance of single‐item screeners in patients with and without dementia (Table 3). In persons with dementia, the best single item was also Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI: 72%‐98%) and a specificity of 61% (95% CI: 41%‐78%). In persons with normal baseline cognition or MCI, the best performing single item was Four digits backwards, with sensitivity of 79% (95% CI: 49%‐95%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 42%‐60%). Months of the year backwards also performed well, with sensitivity of 71% (95% CI: 42%‐92%) and specificity of 71% (95% CI: 62%‐79%).
Test Item | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Screen Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | |
| ||||||||||
Months backwards | 33 | 0.71 (0.42‐0.92) | 0.71 (0.62‐0.79) | 2.46 | 0.4 | 64 | 0.89 (0.72‐0.98) | 0.61 (0.41‐0.78) | 2.27 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | 52 | 0.79 (0.49‐0.95) | 0.51 (0.42‐0.60) | 1.61 | 0.42 | 66 | 0.86 (0.67‐0.96) | 0.54 (0.34‐0.72) | 1.85 | 0.27 |
What is the day of the week? | 10 | 0.64 (0.35‐0.87) | 0.96 (0.91‐0.99) | 16.84 | 0.37 | 50 | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 0.75 (0.55‐0.89) | 3 | 0.33 |
Two‐Item Screens
Table 4 reports the results of 2‐item screens for delirium with sensitivity, specificity, and 95% CIs. Item pairs are listed in descending order of sensitivity following the same convention as in Table 2. The 2‐item screen with the highest sensitivity for delirium is the combination of What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, with a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%) and specificity of 64% (95% CI: 56%‐70%). This screen had a positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 2.59 and 0.11, respectively. The combination of What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards had the same sensitivity 93% (95% CI: 81%‐99%), but lower specificity of 48% (95% CI: 40%‐56%). The combination of What type of place is this? (hospital) and Four digits backwards had a sensitivity of 90% (95% CI: 77%‐97%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI: 43%‐50%).
Screen Item 1 | Screen Item 2 | Screen Positive (%)c | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 48 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.64 (0.56‐0.70) | 2.59 | 0.11 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 60 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.48 (0.4‐0.56) | 1.8 | 0.15 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 65 | 0.93 (0.81‐0.99) | 0.42 (0.34‐0.50) | 1.6 | 0.17 |
What type of place is this? | Four digits backwards | 58 | 0.90 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.51 (0.43‐0.50) | 1.84 | 0.19 |
What is the year? | Four digits backwards | 59 | 0.9 (0.77‐0.97) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.5) | 1.80 | 0.19 |
What is the day of the week? | Three digits backwards | 30 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.86 (0.79‐0.90) | 6.09 | 0.14 |
What is the year? | Months backwards | 44 | 0.88 (0.74‐0.96) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.75 | 0.18 |
What type of place is this? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
During the past day, did you think you were not in the hospital? | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.69 (0.61‐0.70) | 2.73 | 0.21 |
Days of the week backwards | Months backwards | 43 | 0.86 (0.71‐0.95) | 0.68 (0.6‐0.75) | 2.67 | 0.21 |
When subjects were stratified by baseline cognition, the best 2‐item screens for normal and MCI patients was What is the day of the week? and Four digits backwards, with 93% sensitivity (95% CI: 66%‐100%) and 50% specificity (95% CI: 42%‐59%). The best pair of items for patients with dementia (Table 5) was the same as the overall sample, What is the day of the week? and Months of the year backwards, but its performance differed with a higher sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 82%‐100%) and lower specificity of 43% (95% CI: 24%‐63%). This same pair of items had 86% sensitivity (95% CI: 57%‐98%) and 69% (95% CI: 60%‐77%) specificity for persons with either normal cognition or MCI.
Test Item 1 | Test Item 2 | Normal/MCI Patients (n=145) | Dementia Patients (n=56) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | Item Positive (%)b | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | LR | LR | ||
| |||||||||||
What is the day of the week? | Months backwards | 36 | 0.86 (0.57‐0.98) | 0.69 (0.60‐0.77) | 2.74 | 0.21 | 77 | 0.96 (0.82‐1) | 0.43 (0.24‐0.63) | 1.69 | 0.08 |
What is the day of the week? | Four digits backwards | 54 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.5 (0.42‐0.59) | 1.87 | 0.14 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Four digits backwards | Months backwards | 61 | 0.93 (0.66‐1) | 0.43 (0.34‐0.52) | 1.62 | 0.17 | 77 | 0.93 (0.76‐0.99) | 0.39 (0.22‐0.59) | 1.53 | 0.18 |
Altered Level of Consciousness as a Screener for Delirium
Altered level of consciousness (ALOC) was uncommon in our sample, with an overall prevalence of 10/201 (4.9%). When examined as a screening item for delirium, ALOC had very poor sensitivity of 19% (95% CI: 9%‐34%) but had excellent specificity 99% (95% CI: 96%‐100%). Altered LOC also demonstrated poor screening performance when stratified by cognitive status, with a sensitivity of 14% in the normal and MCI group (95% CI: 2%‐43%) and sensitivity of 21% (95% CI: 8%‐41%) in persons with dementia.
Positive and Negative Predictive Values
Although we focused on sensitivity and specificity in evaluating 1‐ and 2‐item screeners, we also examined positive and negative predictive values. These values will vary depending on the overall prevalence of delirium, which was 21% in this dataset. The best 1‐item screener, Months of the year backwards, had a positive predictive value of 31% and negative predictive value of 94%. The best 2‐item screener, Months of the year backwards with What is the day of the week?, had a positive predictive value of 41% and negative predictive value of 97% (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article) LRs for the items are in Tables 2 through 5.
DISCUSSION
Identifying simple, efficient, bedside case‐identification methods for delirium is an essential step toward improving recognition of this highly morbid syndrome in hospitalized older adults. In this study, we identified a single cognitive item, Months of the year backwards, that identified 83% of delirium cases when compared with a reference standard diagnosis. Furthermore, we identified 2 items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week? which when used in combination identified 93% of delirium cases. The same 1 and 2 items also worked well in patients with dementia, in whom delirium is often missed. Although these items require further clinical validation, the development of an ultrabrief 2‐item test that identifies over 90% of delirium cases and can be completed in less than 1 minute (recently, we administered the best 2‐item screener to 20 consecutive general medicine patients over age 70 years, and it was completed in a median of 36.5 seconds), holds great potential for simplifying bedside delirium screening and improving the care of hospitalized older adults.
Our current findings both confirm and extend the emerging literature on best screening items for delirium. Sands and colleagues (2010)[26] tested a single test for delirium, Do you think (name of patient) has been more confused lately? in 21 subjects and achieved a sensitivity of 80%. Han and colleagues developed a screening tool in emergency‐department patients using the LOC question from the Richmond Agitation‐Sedation Scale and spelling the word lunch backwards, and achieved 98% sensitivity, but in a younger emergency department population with a low prevalence of dementia.[27] O'Regan et al. recently also found Months of the year backwards to be the best single‐screening item for delirium in a large sample, but only tested a 1‐item screen.[28] Our study extends these studies in several important ways by: (1) employing a rigorous clinical reference standard diagnosis of delirium, (2) having a large sample with a high prevalence of patients with dementia, (3) use of a general medical population, and (4) examining the best 2‐item screens in addition to the best single item.
Systematic intervention programs[29, 30, 31] that focus on improved delirium evaluation and management have the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs. However, targeting these programs to patients with delirium has proven difficult, as only 12% to 35% of delirium cases are recognized in routine clinical practice.[11, 12, 13, 14, 15] The 1‐ and 2‐item screeners we identified could play an important role in future delirium identification. The 3D‐CAM combines high sensitivity (95%) with high specificity (94%)[16] and therefore would be an excellent choice as the second step after a positive screen. The feasibility, effectiveness, and cost of administering these screeners, followed by a brief diagnostic tool such as the 3D‐CAM, should be evaluated in future work.
Our study has noteworthy strengths, including the use of a large purposefully challenging clinical sample with advanced age that included a substantial proportion with dementia, a detailed assessment, and the testing of very brief and practical tools for bedside delirium screening.[25] This study also has several important limitations. Most importantly, we presented secondary analysis of individual items and pairs of items drawn from the 3D CAM assessment; therefore, the 2‐item bedside screen requires prospective clinical validation. The reference standard was based on the DSM‐IV, because this study was conducted prior to the release of DSM‐V. In addition, the ordering of the reference standard and 3D‐CAM assessments was not randomized due to feasibility constraints. In addition, this study was cross‐sectional, involved only a single hospital, and enrolled only older medical patients during the day shift. Our sample was older (aged 75 years and older), and a younger sample may have had a different prevalence of delirium, which could affect the positive predictive value of our ultrabrief screen. We plan to test this in a sample of patients aged 70 years and older in future studies. Finally, it should be noted that these best 1‐item and 2‐item screeners miss 17% and 7% of delirium cases, respectively. In cases where this is unacceptably high, alternative approaches might be necessary.
It is important to remember that these 1‐ and 2‐item screeners are not diagnostic tools and therefore should not be used in isolation. Optimally, they will be followed by a more specific evaluation, such as the 3D‐CAM, as part of a systematic delirium identification process. For instance, in our sample (with a delirium rate of 21%), the best 2‐item screener had a positive predictive value of 41%, meaning that positive screens are more likely to be false positives than true positives (see Supporting Tables 2 and 3 in the online version of this article).[32] Nevertheless, by reducing the total number of patients who require diagnostic instrument administration, use of these ultrabrief screeners can improve efficiency and result in a net benefit to delirium case‐identification efforts.[32]
Time has been demonstrated to be a barrier to delirium identification in previous studies, but there are likely others. These may include, for instance, staff nihilism about screening making a difference, ambiguous responsibility for delirium screening and management, unsupportive system leadership, and absent payment for these activities.[31] Moreover, it is possible that the 2‐step process we propose may create an incentive for staff to avoid positive screens as they see it creating more work for themselves. We plan to identify and address such barriers in our future work.
In conclusion, we identified a single screening item for delirium, Months of the year backwards, with 83% sensitivity, and a pair of items, Months of the year backwards and What is the day of the week?, with 93% sensitivity relative to a rigorous reference standard diagnosis. These ultrabrief screening items work well in patients with and without dementia, and should require very little training of staff. Future studies should further validate these tools, and determine their translatability and scalability into programs for systematic, widespread delirium detection. Developing efficient and accurate case identification strategies is a necessary prerequisite to appropriately target delirium management protocols, enabling healthcare systems to effectively address this costly and deadly condition.
Disclosures
Author contributionsD.M.F. conceived the study idea, participated in its design and coordination, and drafted the initial manuscript. S.K.I. contributed to the study design and conceptualization, supervision, funding, preliminary analysis, and interpretation of the data, and critical revision of the manuscript. J.G. conducted the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. L.N. supervised the analysis for the study and critically revised the manuscript. R.J. contributed to the study design and critical revision of the manuscript. J.S.S. critically revised the manuscript. E.R.M. obtained funding for the study, supervised all data collection, assisted in drafting and critically revising the manuscript, and contributed to the conceptualization, design, and supervision of the study. All authors have seen and agree with the contents of the manuscript.
This work was supported by the National Institute of Aging grant number R01AG030618 and K24AG035075 to Dr. Marcantonio. Dr. Inouye's time was supported in part by grants P01AG031720, R01AG044518, and K07AG041835 from the National Institute on Aging. Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair (Hebrew Senior Life/Harvard Medical School). Dr. Fick is partially supported from National Institute of Nursing Research grant number R01 NR011042. Dr. Saczynski was supported in part by funding from the National Institute on Aging (K01AG33643) and from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (U01HL105268). The funding agencies had no role and the authors retained full autonomy in the preparation of this article. All authors and coauthors have no financial or nonfinancial conflicts of interest to disclose regarding this article.
This article was presented at the Presidential Poster Session at the American Geriatrics Society 2014 Annual Meeting in Orlando, Florida, May 14, 2014.
- Delirium in elderly patients and the risk of postdischarge mortality, institutionalization, and dementia: a meta‐analysis. JAMA. 2010;304(4):443–451. , , , , ,
- Cognitive trajectories after postoperative delirium. N Engl J Med. 2012;367(1):30–39. , , , et al.
- Delirium in elderly people. Lancet. 2014;383:911–922. , ,
- Delirium superimposed on dementia is associated with prolonged length of stay and poor outcomes in hospitalized older adults. J Hosp Med. 2013;8(9):500–505. , , ,
- One‐year health care costs associated with delirium in the elderly population. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(1):27–32. , , , ,
- The importance of delirium: Economic and societal costs. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2011;59(suppl 2):S241–S243. ,
- Delirium. Ann Intern Med. 2011;154(11):ITC6.
- Fostering implementation of health services research findings into practice: a consolidated framework for advancing implementation science. Implement Sci. 2009;4:50. , , , , ,
- Mixed‐methods approach to understanding nurses' clinical reasoning in recognizing delirium in hospitalized older adults. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2014;45:1–13. , , ,
- Educational interventions to improve recognition of delirium: a systematic review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2013;61(11):1983–1993. , ,
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: accuracy of nurse documentation. J Gerontol Nurs. 2012;38(1):32–42. ,
- Detection of delirium by bedside nurses using the confusion assessment method. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2006;54:685–689. , , , et al.
- Documentation of delirium in elderly patients with hip fracture. J Gerontol Nurs. 2002;28(11):23–29. , , , et al.
- Recorded delirium in a national sample of elderly inpatients: potential implications for recognition. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol. 2003;16(1):32–38. , , ,
- A tale of two methods: chart and interview methods for identifying delirium. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2014;62(3):518–524. , , , et al.
- 3D‐CAM: Derivation and validation of a 3‐minute diagnostic interview for CAM‐defined delirium: a cross‐sectional diagnostic test study. Ann Intern Med. 2014;161(8):554–561. , , , et al.
- Selecting optimal screening items for delirium: an application of item response theory. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2013;13:8. , , , et al.
- The Montreal Cognitive Assessment, MoCA: a brief screening tool for mild cognitive impairment. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2005;53(4):695–699. , , , et al.
- Geriatric Depression Scale. Psychopharmacol Bull. 1988;24(4):709–711.
- A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40(5):373–383. , , ,
- Studies of illness in the aged: the index of ADL: a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. JAMA. 1963;185:914–919. , , , ,
- Assessment of older people: self‐maintaining and instrumental activities of daily living. Gerontologist. 1969;9(3):179–186. ,
- The AD8: a brief informant interview to detect dementia. Neurology. 2005;65(4):559–564. , , , et al.
- The diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease: recommendations from the National Institute on Aging‐Alzheimer's Association workgroups on diagnostic guidelines for Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimers Dement. 2011;7(3):263–269. , , , et al.
- Delirium diagnosis methodology used in research: a survey‐based study. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2014;22(12):1513–1521. , , , et al.
- Single Question in Delirium (SQiD): testing its efficacy against psychiatrist interview, the Confusion Assessment Method and the Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale. Palliat Med. 2010;24(6):561–565. , , , ,
- Diagnosing delirium in older emergency department patients: validity and reliability of the delirium triage screen and the brief confusion assessment method. Ann Emerg Med. 2013;62(5):457–465. , , , et al.
- Attention! A good bedside test for delirium? J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2014;85(10):1122–1131. , , , et al.
- A model for management of delirious postacute care patients. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2005;53(10):1817–1825. , , , ,
- Computerized decision support for delirium superimposed on dementia in older adults: a pilot study. J Gerontol Nurs. 2011;37(4):39–47. , , ,
- Barriers and facilitators to implementing delirium rounds in a clinical trial across three diverse hospital settings. Clin Nurs Res. 2014;23(2):201–215. , , , et al.
- Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychol Bull. 1955;52(3):194. ,
- Delirium in elderly patients and the risk of postdischarge mortality, institutionalization, and dementia: a meta‐analysis. JAMA. 2010;304(4):443–451. , , , , ,
- Cognitive trajectories after postoperative delirium. N Engl J Med. 2012;367(1):30–39. , , , et al.
- Delirium in elderly people. Lancet. 2014;383:911–922. , ,
- Delirium superimposed on dementia is associated with prolonged length of stay and poor outcomes in hospitalized older adults. J Hosp Med. 2013;8(9):500–505. , , ,
- One‐year health care costs associated with delirium in the elderly population. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(1):27–32. , , , ,
- The importance of delirium: Economic and societal costs. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2011;59(suppl 2):S241–S243. ,
- Delirium. Ann Intern Med. 2011;154(11):ITC6.
- Fostering implementation of health services research findings into practice: a consolidated framework for advancing implementation science. Implement Sci. 2009;4:50. , , , , ,
- Mixed‐methods approach to understanding nurses' clinical reasoning in recognizing delirium in hospitalized older adults. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2014;45:1–13. , , ,
- Educational interventions to improve recognition of delirium: a systematic review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2013;61(11):1983–1993. , ,
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: accuracy of nurse documentation. J Gerontol Nurs. 2012;38(1):32–42. ,
- Detection of delirium by bedside nurses using the confusion assessment method. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2006;54:685–689. , , , et al.
- Documentation of delirium in elderly patients with hip fracture. J Gerontol Nurs. 2002;28(11):23–29. , , , et al.
- Recorded delirium in a national sample of elderly inpatients: potential implications for recognition. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol. 2003;16(1):32–38. , , ,
- A tale of two methods: chart and interview methods for identifying delirium. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2014;62(3):518–524. , , , et al.
- 3D‐CAM: Derivation and validation of a 3‐minute diagnostic interview for CAM‐defined delirium: a cross‐sectional diagnostic test study. Ann Intern Med. 2014;161(8):554–561. , , , et al.
- Selecting optimal screening items for delirium: an application of item response theory. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2013;13:8. , , , et al.
- The Montreal Cognitive Assessment, MoCA: a brief screening tool for mild cognitive impairment. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2005;53(4):695–699. , , , et al.
- Geriatric Depression Scale. Psychopharmacol Bull. 1988;24(4):709–711.
- A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40(5):373–383. , , ,
- Studies of illness in the aged: the index of ADL: a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. JAMA. 1963;185:914–919. , , , ,
- Assessment of older people: self‐maintaining and instrumental activities of daily living. Gerontologist. 1969;9(3):179–186. ,
- The AD8: a brief informant interview to detect dementia. Neurology. 2005;65(4):559–564. , , , et al.
- The diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease: recommendations from the National Institute on Aging‐Alzheimer's Association workgroups on diagnostic guidelines for Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimers Dement. 2011;7(3):263–269. , , , et al.
- Delirium diagnosis methodology used in research: a survey‐based study. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2014;22(12):1513–1521. , , , et al.
- Single Question in Delirium (SQiD): testing its efficacy against psychiatrist interview, the Confusion Assessment Method and the Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale. Palliat Med. 2010;24(6):561–565. , , , ,
- Diagnosing delirium in older emergency department patients: validity and reliability of the delirium triage screen and the brief confusion assessment method. Ann Emerg Med. 2013;62(5):457–465. , , , et al.
- Attention! A good bedside test for delirium? J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2014;85(10):1122–1131. , , , et al.
- A model for management of delirious postacute care patients. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2005;53(10):1817–1825. , , , ,
- Computerized decision support for delirium superimposed on dementia in older adults: a pilot study. J Gerontol Nurs. 2011;37(4):39–47. , , ,
- Barriers and facilitators to implementing delirium rounds in a clinical trial across three diverse hospital settings. Clin Nurs Res. 2014;23(2):201–215. , , , et al.
- Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychol Bull. 1955;52(3):194. ,
© 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine
Delirium Superimposed on Dementia
Much attention has been given recently to hospitalized older adults, the critical 30‐day period, and posthospital syndrome.[1] What is missing from this dialogue is the contribution and significance of underlying cognitive impairment. By 2050, 14 million older persons in the United States are expected to have dementia.[2] Increasing numbers of older adults diagnosed with dementia are hospitalized and are at increased risk of developing delirium; in fact, delirium occurs in over half of hospitalized persons with dementia.[3] Further, current evidence suggests that delirium may accelerate the clinical course and trajectory of cognitive decline, and may be associated with considerably worse long‐term outcomes, including prolonged hospitalization, rehospitalization within 30 days, nursing home placement, and death.[3, 4, 5, 6] However, the problem of delirium superimposed on dementia (DSD) remains a neglected area of investigation in hospitalized patients. Delirium is superimposed on dementia when an acute change in mental status (characterized by a fluctuating course, inattention, and either disorganized thinking or altered level of consciousness) is layered on top of preexisting dementia.[4]
Despite the poor outcomes and high prevalence of DSD, little is known about the natural history in hospitalized older adults with dementia. Delirium studies often exclude persons with dementia, even though the prevalence of DSD is extremely high in both community (13%19%) and hospital (40%89%) populations and associated with higher costs and utilization compared to dementia and delirium alone.[4, 5, 7] In 1 study, annual costs for DSD were $9566 compared to $7557 for dementia alone.[7] The few risk‐factor studies of DSD were conducted in intensive care unit (ICU) or long‐term care settings.[8, 9]
The purpose of this study was to describe the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes associated with incident delirium in a prospective cohort of hospitalized older adults with dementia. The study aims were to: (1) estimate the incidence of new delirium in hospitalized persons with dementia, (2) identify the risk factors associated with incident delirium superimposed on dementia in this sample, (3) describe the outcomes associated with development of delirium, and (4) evaluate the contributions of delirium severity and duration to outcomes.
METHODS
This 24‐month prospective cohort study recruited and enrolled consecutive hospital admissions with dementia in a 300‐bed community hospital in central Pennsylvania from July 2006 through November 2008. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a 1‐month posthospitalization interview with patients and their caregivers in the community setting. Patients were included if they spoke English, had been hospitalized fewer than 24 hours, and met the screening criteria for dementia. Patients were excluded if they had any significant neurological condition associated with cognitive impairment other than dementia (eg, brain tumor), a major acute psychiatric disorder, were unable to communicate, or had no caregiver to interview. The interviewers included experienced research assistants (RAs) who were either registered nurses or trained in a health‐related field. All staff training of instruments were done with scripted training manuals and video training using manuals for the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM). After training was completed, final inter‐rater reliability assessments were conducted until staff reached 100% agreement. The RAs were blinded to the aims and completed over 10 hours of training. Inter‐rater reliability checks were conducted on 10% of the sample in the field with >90% agreement attained on all instruments. This study was reviewed by and approved by The Pennsylvania State University institutional review board, and consent was received from all subjects.
Study Measures
Dementia was defined by meeting all 3 criteria of a Modified Blessed Dementia Rating Score of >3, an Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly of 3.3, and documented dementia symptoms of at least 6 months' duration prior to current illness.[10, 11, 12] The Mini‐Mental State Examination (MMSE), purchased from Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc. (Lutz, FL), was used to measure change from day to day and aid in the measurement of delirium, but was not used to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Both the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale[13] and the Global Deterioration Scale (GDS)[14] were used to measure dementia stage and severity.
Delirium and delirium severity were defined according to the validated CAM algorithm;[15] the Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98 was used for delirium severity.[16] In a recent review, the CAM showed an overall sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 89%.[17] In the present study, delirium was measured in a comprehensive and structured interview that involved the MMSE and CAM criteria, and was based on a 24‐hour period of observations, interviews with nurses and family members, and chart review. The CAM was completed daily during patient hospitalization and the follow‐up interviews. The CAM assesses 4 criteria including acute and fluctuating nature, inattention, disorganized thought, and altered level of consciousness. Delirium was recorded by the research staff as present or absent each day based on full CAM criteria. Because the goal of the present study focused on full CAM delirium, subsyndromal delirium was not presented in this article.
Delirium duration was defined as the number of days with a positive rating. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a single interview at 1‐month posthospitalization with patients and their caregivers. Most interviews were in person.
Delirium Risk Factors
Central nervous system‐active drug use was defined by 2005 American Hospital Formulary Services classification.[18] The Beers criteria were used to define potentially inappropriate medication use.[19] The Cornell scale for depression in persons with dementia was used, with a cut point of 12 indicating depression.[20] Functional status change was measured via the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) and Lawton Instrumental Activities Of Daily Living (IADLs) change scores.[21] Comorbid conditions were classified with a weighted index that took into account both the number and seriousness of different comorbid diseases.[22] Pain was measured using the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia (PAINAD) scale.[23] Dehydration was defined using the blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio and/or any chart diagnosis of dehydration. Admission lab values (BUN/creatinine) were abstracted from the medical records.
Primary Outcomes
The primary outcomes measured were full CAM delirium, index hospitalization length of stay, cognitive decline (change in MMSE and GDS scores), death, and functional status change (change from baseline to discharge score). One‐month mortality was measured by chart review and follow‐up family interviews performed at 1 month via telephone or in‐person interviews. Mortality was not verified by additional methods.
Statistical Analysis
All statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC), and statistical significance was assessed using an level of 0.05 unless otherwise noted. Descriptive statistics were calculated on all characteristics by incident delirium status.
Potential risk factors for incident delirium were examined using [2] and t tests, where appropriate. Simple proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident delirium. A stepwise model‐building procedure under a proportional hazards model was used to build a final model for incident delirium that contained all variables that were statistically significant at the 0.05 level or that had an RR of 1.5 or greater. Adjusted RR and corresponding 95% CI were determined. The outcome in each model was the number of days from admission to an incident delirium diagnosis. Subjects without incident delirium were censored using their length of stay as the total number of days they were at risk for developing delirium.
Finally, to examine the relationships between incident delirium, maximum incident delirium severity and the number of inpatient days positive for delirium with the outcomes of death, impaired in 2 or more IADLs at follow‐up, impaired in 2 or more ADLs at follow‐up, length of stay, change in IADLs from admission to follow‐up, and change in ADLs from admission to follow‐up, logistic regression (for the dichotomous outcome of mortality), analysis of covariance or linear regression (depending on the whether the independent variable was categorical or continuous) was performed controlling for age, gender, and GDS score.
RESULTS
Of 256 eligible patients, dual consent was obtained from 154 patient and 154 family research subjects (308 consents). The refusal rate was 39% (n=102). Fourteen subjects were consented and enrolled but later dropped out due to family/proxy concerns regarding the patient's ability to participate in interviews. Thus, the final sample included 139 patients.
Descriptive statistics for baseline measures are given in Table 1. Briefly, the average age of subjects was 83 years (standard deviation [SD]=7); 41% were male; 57% were single, divorced, or widowed; and the average number of years of education was 12 years (SD=3). Thirty‐three percent were dehydrated on admission, and 33% had fallen within 2 weeks prior to admission. Thirty‐four percent had an infection at baseline, and 36% had some sensory impairment.
Factor | Delirium, N=44, 31.7% | No Delirium, N=95, 68.3% | Relative Risk | 95% CI | P Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Demographic covariates | |||||
Age, y, mean (SD) | 85.9 (5.9) | 82.4 (7.0) | 1.07 | 1.021.12 | 0.0051 |
Male gender, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 33 (34.7) | 1.83 | 1.013.31 | 0.0456 |
Single/divorced/widowed, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 56 (60.2) | 0.81 | 0.451.47 | 0.4882 |
Education, y, mean (SD) | 12.6 (3.2) | 12.1 (3.0) | 1.06 | 0.951.17 | 0.3146 |
Clinical covariates | |||||
Dehydration, n (%) | 12 (30.8) | 30 (33.7) | 0.88 | 0.451.74 | 0.7152 |
Fall in last 2 weeks, n (%) | 14 (41.2) | 21 (29.6) | 1.73* | 0.873.43 | 0.1186 |
Infection, n (%) | 13 (40.6) | 21 (30.9) | 1.42 | 0.702.88 | 0.3328 |
Sensory impairment, n (%) | 16 (36.4) | 33 (34.7) | 1.04 | 0.561.91 | 0.9132 |
Lawton score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.3 (2.0) | 0.84 | 0.701.01 | 0.0592 |
Katz impaired score, mean (SD) | 2.3 (2.0) | 3.4 (2.1) | 0.82 | 0.710.95 | 0.0072 |
Charlson score, mean (SD) | 2.5 (1.8) | 2.3 (1.4) | 1.06 | 0.861.30 | 0.6013 |
BUN, mean (SD) | 28.2 (17.6) | 25.6 (15.3) | 1.01 | 0.991.03 | 0.4175 |
Creatinine, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.4 (6.8) | 0.99 | 0.901.08 | 0.7356 |
Cornell Depression score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (0.8) | 1.2 (0.9) | 1.35 | 0.991.83 | 0.0553 |
Global Deterioration score, mean (SD) | 4.7 (1.2) | 3.9 (1.3) | 1.45* | 1.141.86 | 0.0027 |
PAINAD score, mean (SD) | 2.1 (3.0) | 2.0 (2.9) | 1.01 | 0.911.12 | 0.8540 |
Total number of regular medications, mean (SD) | 11.5 (4.6) | 11.0 (5.0) | 1.00 | 0.941.67 | 0.9771 |
Total number of Beers medications, mean (SD) | 0.3 (0.7) | 0.4 (0.7) | 0.76 | 0.461.27 | 0.2933 |
Cognitive impairment covariates | |||||
MMSE score, mean (SD) | 12.7 (6.8) | 17.1 (6.6) | 0.94 | 0.900.98 | 0.0019 |
Blessed score, mean (SD) | 9.5 (3.5) | 7.7 (2.9) | 1.14 | 1.041.24 | 0.0038 |
Measures of deliriumcovariates for follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Maximum incident delirium severity, mean (SD) | 15.4 (5.6) | 8.7 (6.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Inpatient days with positive CAM, mean (SD) | 2.0 (1.1) | 0.2 (1.4) | <0.0001 | ||
Follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Mortality, n (%) | 11 (25.0) | 9 (9.5) | 0.0153 | ||
Length of stay, mean (SD) | 9.1 (4.4) | 5.7 (4.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Change in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.4 (1.5) | 0.2 (1.8) | 0.5094 | ||
Change in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.3 (1.7) | 0.4 (1.6) | 0.6919 |
The overall incidence of delirium was 32% (44/139) and the range of days to incident delirium was 1 to 8 days. During the baseline period (Table 1), subjects with delirium were older, more likely to be male, had lower Katz impairment scores, higher GDS score, lower MMSE scores on admission, and higher Blessed scores than subjects without delirium. Slightly more persons with delirium had a prior fall, although the RR was not statistically significant. Length of stay measured at discharge was significantly higher for those with delirium (mean=9.1) than those without delirium (mean=5.7) (P<0.0001). Subjects with delirium were more likely to have died at 1 month than those without delirium (P=0.0153).
In addition, we analyzed the adjusted relative risk estimates for the final model of incident delirium. Significant risk factors or risk factors with RR estimates at least 1.5 (or <0.66 if protective [Table 1]) that were examined in a more comprehensive multiple proportional hazards model included age, gender, having had a fall in the last 2 weeks, number of impaired ADLs (based on Katz), GDS scores, MMSE scores at baseline, and Blessed scores at baseline. The final proportional hazards included gender and GDS score. Males were nearly 1.8 times as likely to develop delirium than females, and for every 1 unit increase in the GDS, subjects were 1.5 times more likely to develop delirium.
Finally, Table 2 gives the results of examining outcomes related to incident delirium measures. For mortality, there were no statistically significant predictors of death after controlling for age, gender, or GDS. For length of stay, subjects with incident delirium had significantly longer lengths of stay, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the length of stay increased by 0.4 days, and as the number of inpatient days with delirium increased by 1 day the length of stay increased by 1.8 days. For change in the impaired Katz ADLs from admission to follow‐up, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the change in impaired Katz ADLs increased by 0.05 units.
Variable | |||
---|---|---|---|
Outcome mortality | Level | Adjusted Estimate of Associationa | P Value |
| |||
Incident delirium, OR (95% CI)b | Yes | 2.33 (0.82‐6.61) | 0.1130 |
No | 1.00 | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, OR (95% CI)b | 1.05 (0.961.14) | 0.2719 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, OR (95% CI)b | 1.15 (0.891.49) | 0.2871 | |
Outcome LOS | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 9.2 (0.7) | <0.0001 |
No | 5.6 (0.5) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.43 (0.06) | <0.0001 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 1.80 (0.21) | <0.0001 | |
Outcomechange in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.51 (0.33) | 0.3787 |
No | 0.15 (0.20) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.003 (0.03) | 0.9260 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.16 (0.11) | 0.1497 | |
Outcomechange in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.19 (0.26) | 0.5086 |
No | 0.40 (0.17) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.05 (0.03) | 0.0437 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.13 (0.09) | 0.1717 |
DISCUSSION
The most compelling finding from this study is the high incidence of delirium in hospitalized older adults with dementia and the association with poor clinical outcomes in those who develop delirium superimposed on dementia. DSD is difficult to detect and prevent; persons with DSD are at risk for poor quality of life. Those with delirium had a 25% short‐term mortality rate (P=0.0153), substantially increased length of stay (9.1 vs 5.1 days with an odds ratio of 1.8) and poorer physical function at discharge and follow‐up. At 1 month follow‐up, subjects with delirium had greater functional decline and lower GDS scores than those without delirium.
The incidence of delirium in this study was high (32%). Being delirious any time was associated with death and poor function. Delirium was also associated with the stage of the persons' baseline dementia, advanced age, lower MMSE scores, and falling before admission.
Previous studies have found delirium associated with increased mortality. Three studies found that within 1 year of a delirium episode, a significant number of persons died or were institutionalized.[24, 25, 26] Other research has reported death within 1 year of documented delirium episodes, and a 3‐fold increased rate of death in the ICU.[24, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32] This study is 1 of only a few to focus on increased mortality with DSD and to focus uniquely on hospitalized patients with delirium and dementia.
The main risk factors for delirium in this study were male sex and severity of dementia. Our results, combined with those from other recent studies by Voyer and colleagues,[8, 33, 34] point to the critical importance of screening for dementia in hospitalized older adults as dementia severity is a significant indicator of delirium severity. For instance, Voyer and colleagues[34] reported that persons with mild dementia were likely to experience a mild delirium, whereas those with a more severe level of dementia were more likely to experience moderate to severe delirium. Our findings show that those who experienced episodes of delirium represented a highly vulnerable population with advanced dementia, sensory impairment, more falls and dehydration at admission, and higher Blessed scores. A recent study by Saczynski and colleagues[35] found 40% of patients who had experienced postoperative delirium did not return to their baseline at 6 months. Clearly, preventing delirium should be a critical priority to prevent such deterioration in the highly vulnerable population of hospitalized patients with dementia.
Patients in this study were on a mean of over 11 medications. One‐third of dementia patients in our study had also experienced a fall and dehydration at baseline. Other studies have found a relationship between cognitive decline, falling, and medications.[36] Many of these patients came into the hospital with potentially modifiable and preventable community or ambulatory care conditions of polypharmacy, falling, sensory impairment, and dehydration.
Importantly, in our study, length of stay was significantly higher (9.1 vs 5.7) for those with delirium compared to those without delirium. This finding is alarming when examining the economic impact of preventing delirium. Previous studies have found the cost of delirious episodes rivals those for diabetes and heart disease, and that decreasing length of stay by just 1 day would save over $20 million dollars per year.[4, 37]
In summary, this study is 1 of the first to report a high incidence of DSD and poorer outcomes for persons who experience delirium compared to those with dementia alone. This is 1 of only a few studies examining unique risk factors and delirium severity for DSD in the acute care setting. Findings from the current study report potential risk factors for development of incident delirium and highlight the challenge of preventing DSD before and during hospitalization. The generalizability of this study may be limited by the use of a nondiverse study population drawn from a single hospital in the northeast United States, though the use of a community hospital increases the relevance to real‐world practice settings. Determination of baseline cognitive status and the differentiation of delirium and dementia are difficult, but validated, state‐of‐the‐art methods were used that have been applied in previous studies.
This study provides fundamental methodological improvements over previous work, and advances the science by providing valuable data on the natural history, correlates, and outcomes of DSD. The strengths of this study include the prospective cohort design, the daily assessment for delirium based on a 24‐hour period, methods for determining cognitive status at baseline in this difficult population, and utilizing strict blinding of the well‐trained outcome assessors.
This study lays the groundwork for future studies to improve care for persons with dementia who present to acute care and to plan prevention programs for delirium before they are admitted to the hospital. We must be able to translate best practice for DSD into the acute care and community settings to prevent or minimize effects of delirium in persons with dementia. Interventions to increase early detection of delirium by hospital staff have the potential to decrease the severity and duration of delirium and prevent unnecessary suffering and costs from the complications of delirium and preventable readmissions to the hospital.
Thus, this study holds substantial clinical and economic implications for this population in the acute care setting, and will direct future studies leading to changes in real‐world practice settings for persons with dementia.
Disclosures
Drs. Fick, Inouye, and Steis acknowledge support for this project described by grants number R03 AG023216 (DMF) and number P01AG031720 (SKI) from the National Institute of Aging (NIA). This study and its contents are solely the responsibilities of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health/NIA. The principal investigator, Dr. Fick, had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. The authors report no conflicts of interest.
funding section: Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair.
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Much attention has been given recently to hospitalized older adults, the critical 30‐day period, and posthospital syndrome.[1] What is missing from this dialogue is the contribution and significance of underlying cognitive impairment. By 2050, 14 million older persons in the United States are expected to have dementia.[2] Increasing numbers of older adults diagnosed with dementia are hospitalized and are at increased risk of developing delirium; in fact, delirium occurs in over half of hospitalized persons with dementia.[3] Further, current evidence suggests that delirium may accelerate the clinical course and trajectory of cognitive decline, and may be associated with considerably worse long‐term outcomes, including prolonged hospitalization, rehospitalization within 30 days, nursing home placement, and death.[3, 4, 5, 6] However, the problem of delirium superimposed on dementia (DSD) remains a neglected area of investigation in hospitalized patients. Delirium is superimposed on dementia when an acute change in mental status (characterized by a fluctuating course, inattention, and either disorganized thinking or altered level of consciousness) is layered on top of preexisting dementia.[4]
Despite the poor outcomes and high prevalence of DSD, little is known about the natural history in hospitalized older adults with dementia. Delirium studies often exclude persons with dementia, even though the prevalence of DSD is extremely high in both community (13%19%) and hospital (40%89%) populations and associated with higher costs and utilization compared to dementia and delirium alone.[4, 5, 7] In 1 study, annual costs for DSD were $9566 compared to $7557 for dementia alone.[7] The few risk‐factor studies of DSD were conducted in intensive care unit (ICU) or long‐term care settings.[8, 9]
The purpose of this study was to describe the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes associated with incident delirium in a prospective cohort of hospitalized older adults with dementia. The study aims were to: (1) estimate the incidence of new delirium in hospitalized persons with dementia, (2) identify the risk factors associated with incident delirium superimposed on dementia in this sample, (3) describe the outcomes associated with development of delirium, and (4) evaluate the contributions of delirium severity and duration to outcomes.
METHODS
This 24‐month prospective cohort study recruited and enrolled consecutive hospital admissions with dementia in a 300‐bed community hospital in central Pennsylvania from July 2006 through November 2008. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a 1‐month posthospitalization interview with patients and their caregivers in the community setting. Patients were included if they spoke English, had been hospitalized fewer than 24 hours, and met the screening criteria for dementia. Patients were excluded if they had any significant neurological condition associated with cognitive impairment other than dementia (eg, brain tumor), a major acute psychiatric disorder, were unable to communicate, or had no caregiver to interview. The interviewers included experienced research assistants (RAs) who were either registered nurses or trained in a health‐related field. All staff training of instruments were done with scripted training manuals and video training using manuals for the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM). After training was completed, final inter‐rater reliability assessments were conducted until staff reached 100% agreement. The RAs were blinded to the aims and completed over 10 hours of training. Inter‐rater reliability checks were conducted on 10% of the sample in the field with >90% agreement attained on all instruments. This study was reviewed by and approved by The Pennsylvania State University institutional review board, and consent was received from all subjects.
Study Measures
Dementia was defined by meeting all 3 criteria of a Modified Blessed Dementia Rating Score of >3, an Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly of 3.3, and documented dementia symptoms of at least 6 months' duration prior to current illness.[10, 11, 12] The Mini‐Mental State Examination (MMSE), purchased from Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc. (Lutz, FL), was used to measure change from day to day and aid in the measurement of delirium, but was not used to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Both the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale[13] and the Global Deterioration Scale (GDS)[14] were used to measure dementia stage and severity.
Delirium and delirium severity were defined according to the validated CAM algorithm;[15] the Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98 was used for delirium severity.[16] In a recent review, the CAM showed an overall sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 89%.[17] In the present study, delirium was measured in a comprehensive and structured interview that involved the MMSE and CAM criteria, and was based on a 24‐hour period of observations, interviews with nurses and family members, and chart review. The CAM was completed daily during patient hospitalization and the follow‐up interviews. The CAM assesses 4 criteria including acute and fluctuating nature, inattention, disorganized thought, and altered level of consciousness. Delirium was recorded by the research staff as present or absent each day based on full CAM criteria. Because the goal of the present study focused on full CAM delirium, subsyndromal delirium was not presented in this article.
Delirium duration was defined as the number of days with a positive rating. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a single interview at 1‐month posthospitalization with patients and their caregivers. Most interviews were in person.
Delirium Risk Factors
Central nervous system‐active drug use was defined by 2005 American Hospital Formulary Services classification.[18] The Beers criteria were used to define potentially inappropriate medication use.[19] The Cornell scale for depression in persons with dementia was used, with a cut point of 12 indicating depression.[20] Functional status change was measured via the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) and Lawton Instrumental Activities Of Daily Living (IADLs) change scores.[21] Comorbid conditions were classified with a weighted index that took into account both the number and seriousness of different comorbid diseases.[22] Pain was measured using the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia (PAINAD) scale.[23] Dehydration was defined using the blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio and/or any chart diagnosis of dehydration. Admission lab values (BUN/creatinine) were abstracted from the medical records.
Primary Outcomes
The primary outcomes measured were full CAM delirium, index hospitalization length of stay, cognitive decline (change in MMSE and GDS scores), death, and functional status change (change from baseline to discharge score). One‐month mortality was measured by chart review and follow‐up family interviews performed at 1 month via telephone or in‐person interviews. Mortality was not verified by additional methods.
Statistical Analysis
All statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC), and statistical significance was assessed using an level of 0.05 unless otherwise noted. Descriptive statistics were calculated on all characteristics by incident delirium status.
Potential risk factors for incident delirium were examined using [2] and t tests, where appropriate. Simple proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident delirium. A stepwise model‐building procedure under a proportional hazards model was used to build a final model for incident delirium that contained all variables that were statistically significant at the 0.05 level or that had an RR of 1.5 or greater. Adjusted RR and corresponding 95% CI were determined. The outcome in each model was the number of days from admission to an incident delirium diagnosis. Subjects without incident delirium were censored using their length of stay as the total number of days they were at risk for developing delirium.
Finally, to examine the relationships between incident delirium, maximum incident delirium severity and the number of inpatient days positive for delirium with the outcomes of death, impaired in 2 or more IADLs at follow‐up, impaired in 2 or more ADLs at follow‐up, length of stay, change in IADLs from admission to follow‐up, and change in ADLs from admission to follow‐up, logistic regression (for the dichotomous outcome of mortality), analysis of covariance or linear regression (depending on the whether the independent variable was categorical or continuous) was performed controlling for age, gender, and GDS score.
RESULTS
Of 256 eligible patients, dual consent was obtained from 154 patient and 154 family research subjects (308 consents). The refusal rate was 39% (n=102). Fourteen subjects were consented and enrolled but later dropped out due to family/proxy concerns regarding the patient's ability to participate in interviews. Thus, the final sample included 139 patients.
Descriptive statistics for baseline measures are given in Table 1. Briefly, the average age of subjects was 83 years (standard deviation [SD]=7); 41% were male; 57% were single, divorced, or widowed; and the average number of years of education was 12 years (SD=3). Thirty‐three percent were dehydrated on admission, and 33% had fallen within 2 weeks prior to admission. Thirty‐four percent had an infection at baseline, and 36% had some sensory impairment.
Factor | Delirium, N=44, 31.7% | No Delirium, N=95, 68.3% | Relative Risk | 95% CI | P Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Demographic covariates | |||||
Age, y, mean (SD) | 85.9 (5.9) | 82.4 (7.0) | 1.07 | 1.021.12 | 0.0051 |
Male gender, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 33 (34.7) | 1.83 | 1.013.31 | 0.0456 |
Single/divorced/widowed, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 56 (60.2) | 0.81 | 0.451.47 | 0.4882 |
Education, y, mean (SD) | 12.6 (3.2) | 12.1 (3.0) | 1.06 | 0.951.17 | 0.3146 |
Clinical covariates | |||||
Dehydration, n (%) | 12 (30.8) | 30 (33.7) | 0.88 | 0.451.74 | 0.7152 |
Fall in last 2 weeks, n (%) | 14 (41.2) | 21 (29.6) | 1.73* | 0.873.43 | 0.1186 |
Infection, n (%) | 13 (40.6) | 21 (30.9) | 1.42 | 0.702.88 | 0.3328 |
Sensory impairment, n (%) | 16 (36.4) | 33 (34.7) | 1.04 | 0.561.91 | 0.9132 |
Lawton score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.3 (2.0) | 0.84 | 0.701.01 | 0.0592 |
Katz impaired score, mean (SD) | 2.3 (2.0) | 3.4 (2.1) | 0.82 | 0.710.95 | 0.0072 |
Charlson score, mean (SD) | 2.5 (1.8) | 2.3 (1.4) | 1.06 | 0.861.30 | 0.6013 |
BUN, mean (SD) | 28.2 (17.6) | 25.6 (15.3) | 1.01 | 0.991.03 | 0.4175 |
Creatinine, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.4 (6.8) | 0.99 | 0.901.08 | 0.7356 |
Cornell Depression score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (0.8) | 1.2 (0.9) | 1.35 | 0.991.83 | 0.0553 |
Global Deterioration score, mean (SD) | 4.7 (1.2) | 3.9 (1.3) | 1.45* | 1.141.86 | 0.0027 |
PAINAD score, mean (SD) | 2.1 (3.0) | 2.0 (2.9) | 1.01 | 0.911.12 | 0.8540 |
Total number of regular medications, mean (SD) | 11.5 (4.6) | 11.0 (5.0) | 1.00 | 0.941.67 | 0.9771 |
Total number of Beers medications, mean (SD) | 0.3 (0.7) | 0.4 (0.7) | 0.76 | 0.461.27 | 0.2933 |
Cognitive impairment covariates | |||||
MMSE score, mean (SD) | 12.7 (6.8) | 17.1 (6.6) | 0.94 | 0.900.98 | 0.0019 |
Blessed score, mean (SD) | 9.5 (3.5) | 7.7 (2.9) | 1.14 | 1.041.24 | 0.0038 |
Measures of deliriumcovariates for follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Maximum incident delirium severity, mean (SD) | 15.4 (5.6) | 8.7 (6.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Inpatient days with positive CAM, mean (SD) | 2.0 (1.1) | 0.2 (1.4) | <0.0001 | ||
Follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Mortality, n (%) | 11 (25.0) | 9 (9.5) | 0.0153 | ||
Length of stay, mean (SD) | 9.1 (4.4) | 5.7 (4.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Change in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.4 (1.5) | 0.2 (1.8) | 0.5094 | ||
Change in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.3 (1.7) | 0.4 (1.6) | 0.6919 |
The overall incidence of delirium was 32% (44/139) and the range of days to incident delirium was 1 to 8 days. During the baseline period (Table 1), subjects with delirium were older, more likely to be male, had lower Katz impairment scores, higher GDS score, lower MMSE scores on admission, and higher Blessed scores than subjects without delirium. Slightly more persons with delirium had a prior fall, although the RR was not statistically significant. Length of stay measured at discharge was significantly higher for those with delirium (mean=9.1) than those without delirium (mean=5.7) (P<0.0001). Subjects with delirium were more likely to have died at 1 month than those without delirium (P=0.0153).
In addition, we analyzed the adjusted relative risk estimates for the final model of incident delirium. Significant risk factors or risk factors with RR estimates at least 1.5 (or <0.66 if protective [Table 1]) that were examined in a more comprehensive multiple proportional hazards model included age, gender, having had a fall in the last 2 weeks, number of impaired ADLs (based on Katz), GDS scores, MMSE scores at baseline, and Blessed scores at baseline. The final proportional hazards included gender and GDS score. Males were nearly 1.8 times as likely to develop delirium than females, and for every 1 unit increase in the GDS, subjects were 1.5 times more likely to develop delirium.
Finally, Table 2 gives the results of examining outcomes related to incident delirium measures. For mortality, there were no statistically significant predictors of death after controlling for age, gender, or GDS. For length of stay, subjects with incident delirium had significantly longer lengths of stay, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the length of stay increased by 0.4 days, and as the number of inpatient days with delirium increased by 1 day the length of stay increased by 1.8 days. For change in the impaired Katz ADLs from admission to follow‐up, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the change in impaired Katz ADLs increased by 0.05 units.
Variable | |||
---|---|---|---|
Outcome mortality | Level | Adjusted Estimate of Associationa | P Value |
| |||
Incident delirium, OR (95% CI)b | Yes | 2.33 (0.82‐6.61) | 0.1130 |
No | 1.00 | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, OR (95% CI)b | 1.05 (0.961.14) | 0.2719 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, OR (95% CI)b | 1.15 (0.891.49) | 0.2871 | |
Outcome LOS | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 9.2 (0.7) | <0.0001 |
No | 5.6 (0.5) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.43 (0.06) | <0.0001 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 1.80 (0.21) | <0.0001 | |
Outcomechange in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.51 (0.33) | 0.3787 |
No | 0.15 (0.20) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.003 (0.03) | 0.9260 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.16 (0.11) | 0.1497 | |
Outcomechange in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.19 (0.26) | 0.5086 |
No | 0.40 (0.17) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.05 (0.03) | 0.0437 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.13 (0.09) | 0.1717 |
DISCUSSION
The most compelling finding from this study is the high incidence of delirium in hospitalized older adults with dementia and the association with poor clinical outcomes in those who develop delirium superimposed on dementia. DSD is difficult to detect and prevent; persons with DSD are at risk for poor quality of life. Those with delirium had a 25% short‐term mortality rate (P=0.0153), substantially increased length of stay (9.1 vs 5.1 days with an odds ratio of 1.8) and poorer physical function at discharge and follow‐up. At 1 month follow‐up, subjects with delirium had greater functional decline and lower GDS scores than those without delirium.
The incidence of delirium in this study was high (32%). Being delirious any time was associated with death and poor function. Delirium was also associated with the stage of the persons' baseline dementia, advanced age, lower MMSE scores, and falling before admission.
Previous studies have found delirium associated with increased mortality. Three studies found that within 1 year of a delirium episode, a significant number of persons died or were institutionalized.[24, 25, 26] Other research has reported death within 1 year of documented delirium episodes, and a 3‐fold increased rate of death in the ICU.[24, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32] This study is 1 of only a few to focus on increased mortality with DSD and to focus uniquely on hospitalized patients with delirium and dementia.
The main risk factors for delirium in this study were male sex and severity of dementia. Our results, combined with those from other recent studies by Voyer and colleagues,[8, 33, 34] point to the critical importance of screening for dementia in hospitalized older adults as dementia severity is a significant indicator of delirium severity. For instance, Voyer and colleagues[34] reported that persons with mild dementia were likely to experience a mild delirium, whereas those with a more severe level of dementia were more likely to experience moderate to severe delirium. Our findings show that those who experienced episodes of delirium represented a highly vulnerable population with advanced dementia, sensory impairment, more falls and dehydration at admission, and higher Blessed scores. A recent study by Saczynski and colleagues[35] found 40% of patients who had experienced postoperative delirium did not return to their baseline at 6 months. Clearly, preventing delirium should be a critical priority to prevent such deterioration in the highly vulnerable population of hospitalized patients with dementia.
Patients in this study were on a mean of over 11 medications. One‐third of dementia patients in our study had also experienced a fall and dehydration at baseline. Other studies have found a relationship between cognitive decline, falling, and medications.[36] Many of these patients came into the hospital with potentially modifiable and preventable community or ambulatory care conditions of polypharmacy, falling, sensory impairment, and dehydration.
Importantly, in our study, length of stay was significantly higher (9.1 vs 5.7) for those with delirium compared to those without delirium. This finding is alarming when examining the economic impact of preventing delirium. Previous studies have found the cost of delirious episodes rivals those for diabetes and heart disease, and that decreasing length of stay by just 1 day would save over $20 million dollars per year.[4, 37]
In summary, this study is 1 of the first to report a high incidence of DSD and poorer outcomes for persons who experience delirium compared to those with dementia alone. This is 1 of only a few studies examining unique risk factors and delirium severity for DSD in the acute care setting. Findings from the current study report potential risk factors for development of incident delirium and highlight the challenge of preventing DSD before and during hospitalization. The generalizability of this study may be limited by the use of a nondiverse study population drawn from a single hospital in the northeast United States, though the use of a community hospital increases the relevance to real‐world practice settings. Determination of baseline cognitive status and the differentiation of delirium and dementia are difficult, but validated, state‐of‐the‐art methods were used that have been applied in previous studies.
This study provides fundamental methodological improvements over previous work, and advances the science by providing valuable data on the natural history, correlates, and outcomes of DSD. The strengths of this study include the prospective cohort design, the daily assessment for delirium based on a 24‐hour period, methods for determining cognitive status at baseline in this difficult population, and utilizing strict blinding of the well‐trained outcome assessors.
This study lays the groundwork for future studies to improve care for persons with dementia who present to acute care and to plan prevention programs for delirium before they are admitted to the hospital. We must be able to translate best practice for DSD into the acute care and community settings to prevent or minimize effects of delirium in persons with dementia. Interventions to increase early detection of delirium by hospital staff have the potential to decrease the severity and duration of delirium and prevent unnecessary suffering and costs from the complications of delirium and preventable readmissions to the hospital.
Thus, this study holds substantial clinical and economic implications for this population in the acute care setting, and will direct future studies leading to changes in real‐world practice settings for persons with dementia.
Disclosures
Drs. Fick, Inouye, and Steis acknowledge support for this project described by grants number R03 AG023216 (DMF) and number P01AG031720 (SKI) from the National Institute of Aging (NIA). This study and its contents are solely the responsibilities of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health/NIA. The principal investigator, Dr. Fick, had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. The authors report no conflicts of interest.
funding section: Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair.
Much attention has been given recently to hospitalized older adults, the critical 30‐day period, and posthospital syndrome.[1] What is missing from this dialogue is the contribution and significance of underlying cognitive impairment. By 2050, 14 million older persons in the United States are expected to have dementia.[2] Increasing numbers of older adults diagnosed with dementia are hospitalized and are at increased risk of developing delirium; in fact, delirium occurs in over half of hospitalized persons with dementia.[3] Further, current evidence suggests that delirium may accelerate the clinical course and trajectory of cognitive decline, and may be associated with considerably worse long‐term outcomes, including prolonged hospitalization, rehospitalization within 30 days, nursing home placement, and death.[3, 4, 5, 6] However, the problem of delirium superimposed on dementia (DSD) remains a neglected area of investigation in hospitalized patients. Delirium is superimposed on dementia when an acute change in mental status (characterized by a fluctuating course, inattention, and either disorganized thinking or altered level of consciousness) is layered on top of preexisting dementia.[4]
Despite the poor outcomes and high prevalence of DSD, little is known about the natural history in hospitalized older adults with dementia. Delirium studies often exclude persons with dementia, even though the prevalence of DSD is extremely high in both community (13%19%) and hospital (40%89%) populations and associated with higher costs and utilization compared to dementia and delirium alone.[4, 5, 7] In 1 study, annual costs for DSD were $9566 compared to $7557 for dementia alone.[7] The few risk‐factor studies of DSD were conducted in intensive care unit (ICU) or long‐term care settings.[8, 9]
The purpose of this study was to describe the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes associated with incident delirium in a prospective cohort of hospitalized older adults with dementia. The study aims were to: (1) estimate the incidence of new delirium in hospitalized persons with dementia, (2) identify the risk factors associated with incident delirium superimposed on dementia in this sample, (3) describe the outcomes associated with development of delirium, and (4) evaluate the contributions of delirium severity and duration to outcomes.
METHODS
This 24‐month prospective cohort study recruited and enrolled consecutive hospital admissions with dementia in a 300‐bed community hospital in central Pennsylvania from July 2006 through November 2008. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a 1‐month posthospitalization interview with patients and their caregivers in the community setting. Patients were included if they spoke English, had been hospitalized fewer than 24 hours, and met the screening criteria for dementia. Patients were excluded if they had any significant neurological condition associated with cognitive impairment other than dementia (eg, brain tumor), a major acute psychiatric disorder, were unable to communicate, or had no caregiver to interview. The interviewers included experienced research assistants (RAs) who were either registered nurses or trained in a health‐related field. All staff training of instruments were done with scripted training manuals and video training using manuals for the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM). After training was completed, final inter‐rater reliability assessments were conducted until staff reached 100% agreement. The RAs were blinded to the aims and completed over 10 hours of training. Inter‐rater reliability checks were conducted on 10% of the sample in the field with >90% agreement attained on all instruments. This study was reviewed by and approved by The Pennsylvania State University institutional review board, and consent was received from all subjects.
Study Measures
Dementia was defined by meeting all 3 criteria of a Modified Blessed Dementia Rating Score of >3, an Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly of 3.3, and documented dementia symptoms of at least 6 months' duration prior to current illness.[10, 11, 12] The Mini‐Mental State Examination (MMSE), purchased from Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc. (Lutz, FL), was used to measure change from day to day and aid in the measurement of delirium, but was not used to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Both the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale[13] and the Global Deterioration Scale (GDS)[14] were used to measure dementia stage and severity.
Delirium and delirium severity were defined according to the validated CAM algorithm;[15] the Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98 was used for delirium severity.[16] In a recent review, the CAM showed an overall sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 89%.[17] In the present study, delirium was measured in a comprehensive and structured interview that involved the MMSE and CAM criteria, and was based on a 24‐hour period of observations, interviews with nurses and family members, and chart review. The CAM was completed daily during patient hospitalization and the follow‐up interviews. The CAM assesses 4 criteria including acute and fluctuating nature, inattention, disorganized thought, and altered level of consciousness. Delirium was recorded by the research staff as present or absent each day based on full CAM criteria. Because the goal of the present study focused on full CAM delirium, subsyndromal delirium was not presented in this article.
Delirium duration was defined as the number of days with a positive rating. Data were collected daily from patients during hospitalization, followed by a single interview at 1‐month posthospitalization with patients and their caregivers. Most interviews were in person.
Delirium Risk Factors
Central nervous system‐active drug use was defined by 2005 American Hospital Formulary Services classification.[18] The Beers criteria were used to define potentially inappropriate medication use.[19] The Cornell scale for depression in persons with dementia was used, with a cut point of 12 indicating depression.[20] Functional status change was measured via the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) and Lawton Instrumental Activities Of Daily Living (IADLs) change scores.[21] Comorbid conditions were classified with a weighted index that took into account both the number and seriousness of different comorbid diseases.[22] Pain was measured using the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia (PAINAD) scale.[23] Dehydration was defined using the blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio and/or any chart diagnosis of dehydration. Admission lab values (BUN/creatinine) were abstracted from the medical records.
Primary Outcomes
The primary outcomes measured were full CAM delirium, index hospitalization length of stay, cognitive decline (change in MMSE and GDS scores), death, and functional status change (change from baseline to discharge score). One‐month mortality was measured by chart review and follow‐up family interviews performed at 1 month via telephone or in‐person interviews. Mortality was not verified by additional methods.
Statistical Analysis
All statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC), and statistical significance was assessed using an level of 0.05 unless otherwise noted. Descriptive statistics were calculated on all characteristics by incident delirium status.
Potential risk factors for incident delirium were examined using [2] and t tests, where appropriate. Simple proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident delirium. A stepwise model‐building procedure under a proportional hazards model was used to build a final model for incident delirium that contained all variables that were statistically significant at the 0.05 level or that had an RR of 1.5 or greater. Adjusted RR and corresponding 95% CI were determined. The outcome in each model was the number of days from admission to an incident delirium diagnosis. Subjects without incident delirium were censored using their length of stay as the total number of days they were at risk for developing delirium.
Finally, to examine the relationships between incident delirium, maximum incident delirium severity and the number of inpatient days positive for delirium with the outcomes of death, impaired in 2 or more IADLs at follow‐up, impaired in 2 or more ADLs at follow‐up, length of stay, change in IADLs from admission to follow‐up, and change in ADLs from admission to follow‐up, logistic regression (for the dichotomous outcome of mortality), analysis of covariance or linear regression (depending on the whether the independent variable was categorical or continuous) was performed controlling for age, gender, and GDS score.
RESULTS
Of 256 eligible patients, dual consent was obtained from 154 patient and 154 family research subjects (308 consents). The refusal rate was 39% (n=102). Fourteen subjects were consented and enrolled but later dropped out due to family/proxy concerns regarding the patient's ability to participate in interviews. Thus, the final sample included 139 patients.
Descriptive statistics for baseline measures are given in Table 1. Briefly, the average age of subjects was 83 years (standard deviation [SD]=7); 41% were male; 57% were single, divorced, or widowed; and the average number of years of education was 12 years (SD=3). Thirty‐three percent were dehydrated on admission, and 33% had fallen within 2 weeks prior to admission. Thirty‐four percent had an infection at baseline, and 36% had some sensory impairment.
Factor | Delirium, N=44, 31.7% | No Delirium, N=95, 68.3% | Relative Risk | 95% CI | P Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Demographic covariates | |||||
Age, y, mean (SD) | 85.9 (5.9) | 82.4 (7.0) | 1.07 | 1.021.12 | 0.0051 |
Male gender, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 33 (34.7) | 1.83 | 1.013.31 | 0.0456 |
Single/divorced/widowed, n (%) | 23 (52.3) | 56 (60.2) | 0.81 | 0.451.47 | 0.4882 |
Education, y, mean (SD) | 12.6 (3.2) | 12.1 (3.0) | 1.06 | 0.951.17 | 0.3146 |
Clinical covariates | |||||
Dehydration, n (%) | 12 (30.8) | 30 (33.7) | 0.88 | 0.451.74 | 0.7152 |
Fall in last 2 weeks, n (%) | 14 (41.2) | 21 (29.6) | 1.73* | 0.873.43 | 0.1186 |
Infection, n (%) | 13 (40.6) | 21 (30.9) | 1.42 | 0.702.88 | 0.3328 |
Sensory impairment, n (%) | 16 (36.4) | 33 (34.7) | 1.04 | 0.561.91 | 0.9132 |
Lawton score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.3 (2.0) | 0.84 | 0.701.01 | 0.0592 |
Katz impaired score, mean (SD) | 2.3 (2.0) | 3.4 (2.1) | 0.82 | 0.710.95 | 0.0072 |
Charlson score, mean (SD) | 2.5 (1.8) | 2.3 (1.4) | 1.06 | 0.861.30 | 0.6013 |
BUN, mean (SD) | 28.2 (17.6) | 25.6 (15.3) | 1.01 | 0.991.03 | 0.4175 |
Creatinine, mean (SD) | 1.6 (1.3) | 2.4 (6.8) | 0.99 | 0.901.08 | 0.7356 |
Cornell Depression score, mean (SD) | 1.6 (0.8) | 1.2 (0.9) | 1.35 | 0.991.83 | 0.0553 |
Global Deterioration score, mean (SD) | 4.7 (1.2) | 3.9 (1.3) | 1.45* | 1.141.86 | 0.0027 |
PAINAD score, mean (SD) | 2.1 (3.0) | 2.0 (2.9) | 1.01 | 0.911.12 | 0.8540 |
Total number of regular medications, mean (SD) | 11.5 (4.6) | 11.0 (5.0) | 1.00 | 0.941.67 | 0.9771 |
Total number of Beers medications, mean (SD) | 0.3 (0.7) | 0.4 (0.7) | 0.76 | 0.461.27 | 0.2933 |
Cognitive impairment covariates | |||||
MMSE score, mean (SD) | 12.7 (6.8) | 17.1 (6.6) | 0.94 | 0.900.98 | 0.0019 |
Blessed score, mean (SD) | 9.5 (3.5) | 7.7 (2.9) | 1.14 | 1.041.24 | 0.0038 |
Measures of deliriumcovariates for follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Maximum incident delirium severity, mean (SD) | 15.4 (5.6) | 8.7 (6.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Inpatient days with positive CAM, mean (SD) | 2.0 (1.1) | 0.2 (1.4) | <0.0001 | ||
Follow‐up outcomes | |||||
Mortality, n (%) | 11 (25.0) | 9 (9.5) | 0.0153 | ||
Length of stay, mean (SD) | 9.1 (4.4) | 5.7 (4.1) | <0.0001 | ||
Change in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.4 (1.5) | 0.2 (1.8) | 0.5094 | ||
Change in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up, mean (SD) | 0.3 (1.7) | 0.4 (1.6) | 0.6919 |
The overall incidence of delirium was 32% (44/139) and the range of days to incident delirium was 1 to 8 days. During the baseline period (Table 1), subjects with delirium were older, more likely to be male, had lower Katz impairment scores, higher GDS score, lower MMSE scores on admission, and higher Blessed scores than subjects without delirium. Slightly more persons with delirium had a prior fall, although the RR was not statistically significant. Length of stay measured at discharge was significantly higher for those with delirium (mean=9.1) than those without delirium (mean=5.7) (P<0.0001). Subjects with delirium were more likely to have died at 1 month than those without delirium (P=0.0153).
In addition, we analyzed the adjusted relative risk estimates for the final model of incident delirium. Significant risk factors or risk factors with RR estimates at least 1.5 (or <0.66 if protective [Table 1]) that were examined in a more comprehensive multiple proportional hazards model included age, gender, having had a fall in the last 2 weeks, number of impaired ADLs (based on Katz), GDS scores, MMSE scores at baseline, and Blessed scores at baseline. The final proportional hazards included gender and GDS score. Males were nearly 1.8 times as likely to develop delirium than females, and for every 1 unit increase in the GDS, subjects were 1.5 times more likely to develop delirium.
Finally, Table 2 gives the results of examining outcomes related to incident delirium measures. For mortality, there were no statistically significant predictors of death after controlling for age, gender, or GDS. For length of stay, subjects with incident delirium had significantly longer lengths of stay, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the length of stay increased by 0.4 days, and as the number of inpatient days with delirium increased by 1 day the length of stay increased by 1.8 days. For change in the impaired Katz ADLs from admission to follow‐up, as incident delirium severity increased by 1 unit the change in impaired Katz ADLs increased by 0.05 units.
Variable | |||
---|---|---|---|
Outcome mortality | Level | Adjusted Estimate of Associationa | P Value |
| |||
Incident delirium, OR (95% CI)b | Yes | 2.33 (0.82‐6.61) | 0.1130 |
No | 1.00 | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, OR (95% CI)b | 1.05 (0.961.14) | 0.2719 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, OR (95% CI)b | 1.15 (0.891.49) | 0.2871 | |
Outcome LOS | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 9.2 (0.7) | <0.0001 |
No | 5.6 (0.5) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.43 (0.06) | <0.0001 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 1.80 (0.21) | <0.0001 | |
Outcomechange in Lawton IADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.51 (0.33) | 0.3787 |
No | 0.15 (0.20) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.003 (0.03) | 0.9260 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.16 (0.11) | 0.1497 | |
Outcomechange in Katz impaired ADLs from admission to follow‐up | |||
Incident delirium, mean (SE)c | Yes | 0.19 (0.26) | 0.5086 |
No | 0.40 (0.17) | ||
Maximum incident delirium severity, slope (SE)d | 0.05 (0.03) | 0.0437 | |
Number of inpatient days with positive delirium, slope (SE)d | 0.13 (0.09) | 0.1717 |
DISCUSSION
The most compelling finding from this study is the high incidence of delirium in hospitalized older adults with dementia and the association with poor clinical outcomes in those who develop delirium superimposed on dementia. DSD is difficult to detect and prevent; persons with DSD are at risk for poor quality of life. Those with delirium had a 25% short‐term mortality rate (P=0.0153), substantially increased length of stay (9.1 vs 5.1 days with an odds ratio of 1.8) and poorer physical function at discharge and follow‐up. At 1 month follow‐up, subjects with delirium had greater functional decline and lower GDS scores than those without delirium.
The incidence of delirium in this study was high (32%). Being delirious any time was associated with death and poor function. Delirium was also associated with the stage of the persons' baseline dementia, advanced age, lower MMSE scores, and falling before admission.
Previous studies have found delirium associated with increased mortality. Three studies found that within 1 year of a delirium episode, a significant number of persons died or were institutionalized.[24, 25, 26] Other research has reported death within 1 year of documented delirium episodes, and a 3‐fold increased rate of death in the ICU.[24, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32] This study is 1 of only a few to focus on increased mortality with DSD and to focus uniquely on hospitalized patients with delirium and dementia.
The main risk factors for delirium in this study were male sex and severity of dementia. Our results, combined with those from other recent studies by Voyer and colleagues,[8, 33, 34] point to the critical importance of screening for dementia in hospitalized older adults as dementia severity is a significant indicator of delirium severity. For instance, Voyer and colleagues[34] reported that persons with mild dementia were likely to experience a mild delirium, whereas those with a more severe level of dementia were more likely to experience moderate to severe delirium. Our findings show that those who experienced episodes of delirium represented a highly vulnerable population with advanced dementia, sensory impairment, more falls and dehydration at admission, and higher Blessed scores. A recent study by Saczynski and colleagues[35] found 40% of patients who had experienced postoperative delirium did not return to their baseline at 6 months. Clearly, preventing delirium should be a critical priority to prevent such deterioration in the highly vulnerable population of hospitalized patients with dementia.
Patients in this study were on a mean of over 11 medications. One‐third of dementia patients in our study had also experienced a fall and dehydration at baseline. Other studies have found a relationship between cognitive decline, falling, and medications.[36] Many of these patients came into the hospital with potentially modifiable and preventable community or ambulatory care conditions of polypharmacy, falling, sensory impairment, and dehydration.
Importantly, in our study, length of stay was significantly higher (9.1 vs 5.7) for those with delirium compared to those without delirium. This finding is alarming when examining the economic impact of preventing delirium. Previous studies have found the cost of delirious episodes rivals those for diabetes and heart disease, and that decreasing length of stay by just 1 day would save over $20 million dollars per year.[4, 37]
In summary, this study is 1 of the first to report a high incidence of DSD and poorer outcomes for persons who experience delirium compared to those with dementia alone. This is 1 of only a few studies examining unique risk factors and delirium severity for DSD in the acute care setting. Findings from the current study report potential risk factors for development of incident delirium and highlight the challenge of preventing DSD before and during hospitalization. The generalizability of this study may be limited by the use of a nondiverse study population drawn from a single hospital in the northeast United States, though the use of a community hospital increases the relevance to real‐world practice settings. Determination of baseline cognitive status and the differentiation of delirium and dementia are difficult, but validated, state‐of‐the‐art methods were used that have been applied in previous studies.
This study provides fundamental methodological improvements over previous work, and advances the science by providing valuable data on the natural history, correlates, and outcomes of DSD. The strengths of this study include the prospective cohort design, the daily assessment for delirium based on a 24‐hour period, methods for determining cognitive status at baseline in this difficult population, and utilizing strict blinding of the well‐trained outcome assessors.
This study lays the groundwork for future studies to improve care for persons with dementia who present to acute care and to plan prevention programs for delirium before they are admitted to the hospital. We must be able to translate best practice for DSD into the acute care and community settings to prevent or minimize effects of delirium in persons with dementia. Interventions to increase early detection of delirium by hospital staff have the potential to decrease the severity and duration of delirium and prevent unnecessary suffering and costs from the complications of delirium and preventable readmissions to the hospital.
Thus, this study holds substantial clinical and economic implications for this population in the acute care setting, and will direct future studies leading to changes in real‐world practice settings for persons with dementia.
Disclosures
Drs. Fick, Inouye, and Steis acknowledge support for this project described by grants number R03 AG023216 (DMF) and number P01AG031720 (SKI) from the National Institute of Aging (NIA). This study and its contents are solely the responsibilities of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health/NIA. The principal investigator, Dr. Fick, had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. The authors report no conflicts of interest.
funding section: Dr. Inouye holds the Milton and Shirley F. Levy Family Chair.
- Post‐hospital syndrome—an acquired, transient condition of generalized risk. N Engl J Med. 2013;368(2):100–102. .
- Alzheimer's Association. Alzheimer's disease facts and figures. Alzheimers Dement. 2012;8(2):131–168.
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: accuracy of nurse documentation. J Gerontol Nurs. 2012;38(1):32–42. , .
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: a systematic review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2002;50(10):1723–1732. , , .
- Delirium accelerates cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease. Neurology. 2009;72(18):1570–1575. , , , et al.
- Adverse outcomes after hospitalization and delirium in persons with Alzheimer disease. Ann Intern Med. 2012;156(12):848–856, W296. , , , et al.
- Delirium superimposed on dementia in a community‐dwelling managed care population: a 3‐year retrospective study of occurrence, costs, and utilization. J Gerontol. 2005;60A(6):748–753. , , , .
- Factors associated with delirium severity among older persons with dementia. J Neurosci Nurs. 2011;43(2):62–69. , , , .
- Delirium in the intensive care unit. Crit Care 2008;12(suppl 3):S3. , , .
- Correlations of Mini‐Mental State and Modified Rating Scale to measures of transitional health status in dementia. J Gerontol. 1987;42(1):33–36. , , .
- Population‐based norms for the Mini‐Mental State Examination by age and educational level. JAMA. 1993;269(18):2386–2391. , , , .
- The mini‐mental state examination: a comprehensive review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1992;40(9):922–935. , .
- A new clinical scale for the staging of dementia. Br J Psychiatry. 1982;140:566–572. , , , , .
- The GDS/FAST staging system. Int Psychogeriatr. 1997;9(suppl 1):167–171. , .
- Clarifying confusion: the confusion assessment method. A new method for detection of delirium. Ann Intern Med. 1990;113(12):941–948. , , , , , .
- Validation of the Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98: comparison with the delirium rating scale and the cognitive test for delirium. J Neuropsychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2001;13(2):229–242. , , , , , .
- The confusion assessment method: a systematic review of current usage. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2008;56(5):823–830. , , , .
- American Society of Health‐System Pharmacists. AHFS Drug Information. Bethesda, MD: American Society of Health‐System Pharmacists; 2005.
- Updating the Beers criteria for potentially inappropriate medication use in older adults: results of a US consensus panel of experts [published correction appears in Arch Intern Med. 2004;164:298]. Arch Intern Med 2003;163(22):2716–2724. , , , , , .
- Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia. Biol Psychiatry. 1988;23(3):271–284. , , , .
- Assessing self‐maintenance: activities of daily living, mobility, and instrumental activities of daily living. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1983;31(12):721–726. .
- A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40(5):373–383. , , , .
- Development and psychometric evaluation of the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia (PAINAD) scale. J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2003;4(1):9–15. , , .
- Prevalence and outcomes of delirium in community and non‐acute care settings in people without dementia: a report from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. BMC Med. 2006;4:15. , , .
- Prognostic significance of delirium in frail older people. Dementia. 2005;19(2‐3):158–163. , , , .
- Delirium in elderly patients and the risk of postdischarge mortality, institutionalization, and dementia: a meta‐analysis. JAMA. 2010;304(4):443–451. , , , , , .
- Delirium as a predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit. JAMA. 2004;291(14):1753–1762. , , , et al.
- Delirium subtypes and 1‐year mortality among elderly patients discharged from a post‐acute rehabilitation facility. J Gerontol. 2007;62A(10):1182–1183. , , , .
- Delirium in older patients admitted to general internal medicine. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol. 2006;19(2):83–90. , , , , , .
- Association between psychomotor activity delirium subtypes and mortality among newly admitted postacute facility patients. J Gerontol. 2007;62A(2):174–179. , , , .
- Premature death associated with delirium at 1‐year follow‐up. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:1657–1662. , , , , , .
- Older adults discharged from the hospital with delirium: 1‐year outcomes. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2006;54(8):1245–1250. , , , et al.
- Influence of prior cognitive impairment on the severity of delirium symptoms among older patients. J Neurosci Nurs. 2006;38(2):90–101. , , , .
- Factors associated with delirium severity among older patients. J Clin Nurs. 2007;16:819–831. , , , , .
- Cognitive trajectories after postoperative delirium. N Engl J Med. 2012;367(1):30–39. , , , et al.
- Effect of central nervous system medication use on decline in cognition in community‐dwelling older adults: findings from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2009;57(2):243–250. , , , et al.
- One‐year health care costs associated with delirium in the elderly population. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(1):27. , , , , .
- Post‐hospital syndrome—an acquired, transient condition of generalized risk. N Engl J Med. 2013;368(2):100–102. .
- Alzheimer's Association. Alzheimer's disease facts and figures. Alzheimers Dement. 2012;8(2):131–168.
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: accuracy of nurse documentation. J Gerontol Nurs. 2012;38(1):32–42. , .
- Delirium superimposed on dementia: a systematic review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2002;50(10):1723–1732. , , .
- Delirium accelerates cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease. Neurology. 2009;72(18):1570–1575. , , , et al.
- Adverse outcomes after hospitalization and delirium in persons with Alzheimer disease. Ann Intern Med. 2012;156(12):848–856, W296. , , , et al.
- Delirium superimposed on dementia in a community‐dwelling managed care population: a 3‐year retrospective study of occurrence, costs, and utilization. J Gerontol. 2005;60A(6):748–753. , , , .
- Factors associated with delirium severity among older persons with dementia. J Neurosci Nurs. 2011;43(2):62–69. , , , .
- Delirium in the intensive care unit. Crit Care 2008;12(suppl 3):S3. , , .
- Correlations of Mini‐Mental State and Modified Rating Scale to measures of transitional health status in dementia. J Gerontol. 1987;42(1):33–36. , , .
- Population‐based norms for the Mini‐Mental State Examination by age and educational level. JAMA. 1993;269(18):2386–2391. , , , .
- The mini‐mental state examination: a comprehensive review. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1992;40(9):922–935. , .
- A new clinical scale for the staging of dementia. Br J Psychiatry. 1982;140:566–572. , , , , .
- The GDS/FAST staging system. Int Psychogeriatr. 1997;9(suppl 1):167–171. , .
- Clarifying confusion: the confusion assessment method. A new method for detection of delirium. Ann Intern Med. 1990;113(12):941–948. , , , , , .
- Validation of the Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98: comparison with the delirium rating scale and the cognitive test for delirium. J Neuropsychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2001;13(2):229–242. , , , , , .
- The confusion assessment method: a systematic review of current usage. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2008;56(5):823–830. , , , .
- American Society of Health‐System Pharmacists. AHFS Drug Information. Bethesda, MD: American Society of Health‐System Pharmacists; 2005.
- Updating the Beers criteria for potentially inappropriate medication use in older adults: results of a US consensus panel of experts [published correction appears in Arch Intern Med. 2004;164:298]. Arch Intern Med 2003;163(22):2716–2724. , , , , , .
- Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia. Biol Psychiatry. 1988;23(3):271–284. , , , .
- Assessing self‐maintenance: activities of daily living, mobility, and instrumental activities of daily living. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1983;31(12):721–726. .
- A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40(5):373–383. , , , .
- Development and psychometric evaluation of the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia (PAINAD) scale. J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2003;4(1):9–15. , , .
- Prevalence and outcomes of delirium in community and non‐acute care settings in people without dementia: a report from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. BMC Med. 2006;4:15. , , .
- Prognostic significance of delirium in frail older people. Dementia. 2005;19(2‐3):158–163. , , , .
- Delirium in elderly patients and the risk of postdischarge mortality, institutionalization, and dementia: a meta‐analysis. JAMA. 2010;304(4):443–451. , , , , , .
- Delirium as a predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit. JAMA. 2004;291(14):1753–1762. , , , et al.
- Delirium subtypes and 1‐year mortality among elderly patients discharged from a post‐acute rehabilitation facility. J Gerontol. 2007;62A(10):1182–1183. , , , .
- Delirium in older patients admitted to general internal medicine. J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol. 2006;19(2):83–90. , , , , , .
- Association between psychomotor activity delirium subtypes and mortality among newly admitted postacute facility patients. J Gerontol. 2007;62A(2):174–179. , , , .
- Premature death associated with delirium at 1‐year follow‐up. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:1657–1662. , , , , , .
- Older adults discharged from the hospital with delirium: 1‐year outcomes. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2006;54(8):1245–1250. , , , et al.
- Influence of prior cognitive impairment on the severity of delirium symptoms among older patients. J Neurosci Nurs. 2006;38(2):90–101. , , , .
- Factors associated with delirium severity among older patients. J Clin Nurs. 2007;16:819–831. , , , , .
- Cognitive trajectories after postoperative delirium. N Engl J Med. 2012;367(1):30–39. , , , et al.
- Effect of central nervous system medication use on decline in cognition in community‐dwelling older adults: findings from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2009;57(2):243–250. , , , et al.
- One‐year health care costs associated with delirium in the elderly population. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(1):27. , , , , .
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