Ob.Gyn. News

Sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) analyses of thermography that is combined with diagnostic software demonstrate “the efficacy of the tool for breast cancer screening,” concludes an observational, comparative study from India published online Oct. 1 in JCO Global Oncology, a publication of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Siva Teja Kakileti of Niramai Health Analytix, Koramangala, Bangalore, India, and colleagues said that the product, Thermalytix, is potentially a good fit for low- and middle-income countries because it is portable and provides automated quantitative analysis of thermal images – and thus can be conducted by technicians with “minimal training.”

Conventional thermography involves manual interpretation of complex thermal images, which “often results in erroneous results owing to subjectivity,” said the study authors.

That manual interpretation of thermal images might involve looking at 200 color shades, which is “high cognitive overload for the thermographer,” explained Mr. Kakileti in an interview.

However, an American mammography expert who was approached for comment dismissed thermography – even with the new twist of software-aided diagnostic scoring by Thermalytix – as wholly inappropriate for the detection of early breast cancer, owing to inherent limitations.

“Thermal imaging of any type has no value in finding early breast cancer,” Daniel Kopans, MD, of Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital, both in Boston, said in an interview. He said that thermal imaging only detects heat on the skin and perhaps a few millimeters beneath the skin and thus misses deeper cancers, the heat from which is carried away by the vascular system.

The new study included 470 women who presented for breast screening at two centers in Bangalore, India. A total of 238 women had symptoms such as breast lump, nipple discharge, skin changes, or breast pain; the remaining 232 women were asymptomatic.

All participants underwent a Thermalytix test and one or more standard-of-care tests for breast cancer screening (such as mammography, ultrasonography, biopsy, fine-needle aspiration, or elastography). A total of 78 women, or 16.6% of the group overall, were diagnosed with a malignancy. For the overall group of 470 women, Thermalytix had a sensitivity of 91.02% (symptomatic, 89.85%; asymptomatic,100%) and a specificity of 82.39% (symptomatic, 69.04%; asymptomatic, 92.41%) in detection of breast malignancy. Thermalytix showed an overall AUC of 0.90, with an AUC of 0.82 for symptomatic and 0.98 for asymptomatic women.

The study authors characterized both the sensitivity and AUC as “high.”

The results from the study, which the authors characterized as preliminary, encouraged the study sponsor, Niramai, to start planning a large-scale, multicountry trial.

But Dr. Kopans, who serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China, suggested that this research will be fruitless. “Thermal imaging seems to raise its head every few years since it is passive, but it does not work and is a waste of money,” Dr. Kopans reiterated.

“Its use can be dangerous by dissuading women from being screened with mammography, which has been proven to save lives,” he stressed.
 

Thermalytix compared with mammography

Investigators also compared screening results in the subset of 242 women who underwent both Thermalytix and mammography. Results showed that Thermalytix had a higher sensitivity than did mammography (91.23% vs. 85.96%), but mammography had a higher specificity than Thermalytix did (94.05% vs. 68.65%).

In the asymptomatic group who underwent both tests (n = 95), four cancers were detected, and Thermalytix demonstrated superior sensitivity than mammography (100% vs. 50%), Mr. Kakileti and colleagues state.
 

Thermalytix evaluates vascularity variations too

In the subset of 228 women who did not undergo mammography (owing to dense breasts, younger age, or other reasons), Thermalytix detected tumors in all but 3 of 21 patients who went on to be diagnosed with breast cancer. The authors state that, because their artificial intelligence–based analysis uses vascularity, as well as temperature variations on the skin, to complement hot-spot detection, it is able to detect small lesions.

In the current study, 24 malignant tumors were less than 2 cm in diameter, and Thermalytix was able to identify 17 of the tumors as positive, for a 71% sensitivity rate for T1 tumors. This compared with a 68% sensitivity rate for mammography for detecting the same T1 tumors. Thermalytix also showed promising results in women younger than 40 years, for whom screening mammography is not usually recommended. The automated test picked up all 11 tumors eventually diagnosed in this younger cohort.

“Thermalytix is a portable, noninvasive, radiation-free test that has shown promising results in this preliminary study,” the investigators wrote, “[and] it can be an affordable and scalable method of screening in remote areas,” they added.

“We believe that Thermalytix ... is poised to be a promising modality for breast cancer screening,” Mr. Kakileti and colleagues summarized.
 

The FDA warns about thermography in place of mammography

The US Food and Drug Administration fairly recently warned against the use of thermography as an alternative to mammography for breast cancer screening or diagnosis, noting that it has received reports that facilities where thermography is offered often provide false information about the technology that can mislead patients into believing that it is either an alternative to or a better option than mammography.

Dr. Kopans says that other groups have invested in thermography research. “The Israelis spent millions working on a similar approach that didn’t work,” he commented.

The new software from Thermalytix, which is derived from artificial intelligence, is a “gimmick,” says the Boston radiologist. “If the basic information is not there, a computer cannot find it,” he stated, referring to what he believes are deeper-tissue tumors that are inaccessible to heat-detecting technology.

Mr. Kakileti is an employee of Nirami Health Analytix and owns stock and has filed patents with the company. Other investigators are also employed by the same company or receive research and other funding or have patents filed by the company as well. Dr. Kopans serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

Sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) analyses of thermography that is combined with diagnostic software demonstrate “the efficacy of the tool for breast cancer screening,” concludes an observational, comparative study from India published online Oct. 1 in JCO Global Oncology, a publication of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Siva Teja Kakileti of Niramai Health Analytix, Koramangala, Bangalore, India, and colleagues said that the product, Thermalytix, is potentially a good fit for low- and middle-income countries because it is portable and provides automated quantitative analysis of thermal images – and thus can be conducted by technicians with “minimal training.”

Conventional thermography involves manual interpretation of complex thermal images, which “often results in erroneous results owing to subjectivity,” said the study authors.

That manual interpretation of thermal images might involve looking at 200 color shades, which is “high cognitive overload for the thermographer,” explained Mr. Kakileti in an interview.

However, an American mammography expert who was approached for comment dismissed thermography – even with the new twist of software-aided diagnostic scoring by Thermalytix – as wholly inappropriate for the detection of early breast cancer, owing to inherent limitations.

“Thermal imaging of any type has no value in finding early breast cancer,” Daniel Kopans, MD, of Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital, both in Boston, said in an interview. He said that thermal imaging only detects heat on the skin and perhaps a few millimeters beneath the skin and thus misses deeper cancers, the heat from which is carried away by the vascular system.

The new study included 470 women who presented for breast screening at two centers in Bangalore, India. A total of 238 women had symptoms such as breast lump, nipple discharge, skin changes, or breast pain; the remaining 232 women were asymptomatic.

All participants underwent a Thermalytix test and one or more standard-of-care tests for breast cancer screening (such as mammography, ultrasonography, biopsy, fine-needle aspiration, or elastography). A total of 78 women, or 16.6% of the group overall, were diagnosed with a malignancy. For the overall group of 470 women, Thermalytix had a sensitivity of 91.02% (symptomatic, 89.85%; asymptomatic,100%) and a specificity of 82.39% (symptomatic, 69.04%; asymptomatic, 92.41%) in detection of breast malignancy. Thermalytix showed an overall AUC of 0.90, with an AUC of 0.82 for symptomatic and 0.98 for asymptomatic women.

The study authors characterized both the sensitivity and AUC as “high.”

The results from the study, which the authors characterized as preliminary, encouraged the study sponsor, Niramai, to start planning a large-scale, multicountry trial.

But Dr. Kopans, who serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China, suggested that this research will be fruitless. “Thermal imaging seems to raise its head every few years since it is passive, but it does not work and is a waste of money,” Dr. Kopans reiterated.

“Its use can be dangerous by dissuading women from being screened with mammography, which has been proven to save lives,” he stressed.
 

Thermalytix compared with mammography

Investigators also compared screening results in the subset of 242 women who underwent both Thermalytix and mammography. Results showed that Thermalytix had a higher sensitivity than did mammography (91.23% vs. 85.96%), but mammography had a higher specificity than Thermalytix did (94.05% vs. 68.65%).

In the asymptomatic group who underwent both tests (n = 95), four cancers were detected, and Thermalytix demonstrated superior sensitivity than mammography (100% vs. 50%), Mr. Kakileti and colleagues state.
 

Thermalytix evaluates vascularity variations too

In the subset of 228 women who did not undergo mammography (owing to dense breasts, younger age, or other reasons), Thermalytix detected tumors in all but 3 of 21 patients who went on to be diagnosed with breast cancer. The authors state that, because their artificial intelligence–based analysis uses vascularity, as well as temperature variations on the skin, to complement hot-spot detection, it is able to detect small lesions.

In the current study, 24 malignant tumors were less than 2 cm in diameter, and Thermalytix was able to identify 17 of the tumors as positive, for a 71% sensitivity rate for T1 tumors. This compared with a 68% sensitivity rate for mammography for detecting the same T1 tumors. Thermalytix also showed promising results in women younger than 40 years, for whom screening mammography is not usually recommended. The automated test picked up all 11 tumors eventually diagnosed in this younger cohort.

“Thermalytix is a portable, noninvasive, radiation-free test that has shown promising results in this preliminary study,” the investigators wrote, “[and] it can be an affordable and scalable method of screening in remote areas,” they added.

“We believe that Thermalytix ... is poised to be a promising modality for breast cancer screening,” Mr. Kakileti and colleagues summarized.
 

The FDA warns about thermography in place of mammography

The US Food and Drug Administration fairly recently warned against the use of thermography as an alternative to mammography for breast cancer screening or diagnosis, noting that it has received reports that facilities where thermography is offered often provide false information about the technology that can mislead patients into believing that it is either an alternative to or a better option than mammography.

Dr. Kopans says that other groups have invested in thermography research. “The Israelis spent millions working on a similar approach that didn’t work,” he commented.

The new software from Thermalytix, which is derived from artificial intelligence, is a “gimmick,” says the Boston radiologist. “If the basic information is not there, a computer cannot find it,” he stated, referring to what he believes are deeper-tissue tumors that are inaccessible to heat-detecting technology.

Mr. Kakileti is an employee of Nirami Health Analytix and owns stock and has filed patents with the company. Other investigators are also employed by the same company or receive research and other funding or have patents filed by the company as well. Dr. Kopans serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

Sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) analyses of thermography that is combined with diagnostic software demonstrate “the efficacy of the tool for breast cancer screening,” concludes an observational, comparative study from India published online Oct. 1 in JCO Global Oncology, a publication of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Siva Teja Kakileti of Niramai Health Analytix, Koramangala, Bangalore, India, and colleagues said that the product, Thermalytix, is potentially a good fit for low- and middle-income countries because it is portable and provides automated quantitative analysis of thermal images – and thus can be conducted by technicians with “minimal training.”

Conventional thermography involves manual interpretation of complex thermal images, which “often results in erroneous results owing to subjectivity,” said the study authors.

That manual interpretation of thermal images might involve looking at 200 color shades, which is “high cognitive overload for the thermographer,” explained Mr. Kakileti in an interview.

However, an American mammography expert who was approached for comment dismissed thermography – even with the new twist of software-aided diagnostic scoring by Thermalytix – as wholly inappropriate for the detection of early breast cancer, owing to inherent limitations.

“Thermal imaging of any type has no value in finding early breast cancer,” Daniel Kopans, MD, of Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital, both in Boston, said in an interview. He said that thermal imaging only detects heat on the skin and perhaps a few millimeters beneath the skin and thus misses deeper cancers, the heat from which is carried away by the vascular system.

The new study included 470 women who presented for breast screening at two centers in Bangalore, India. A total of 238 women had symptoms such as breast lump, nipple discharge, skin changes, or breast pain; the remaining 232 women were asymptomatic.

All participants underwent a Thermalytix test and one or more standard-of-care tests for breast cancer screening (such as mammography, ultrasonography, biopsy, fine-needle aspiration, or elastography). A total of 78 women, or 16.6% of the group overall, were diagnosed with a malignancy. For the overall group of 470 women, Thermalytix had a sensitivity of 91.02% (symptomatic, 89.85%; asymptomatic,100%) and a specificity of 82.39% (symptomatic, 69.04%; asymptomatic, 92.41%) in detection of breast malignancy. Thermalytix showed an overall AUC of 0.90, with an AUC of 0.82 for symptomatic and 0.98 for asymptomatic women.

The study authors characterized both the sensitivity and AUC as “high.”

The results from the study, which the authors characterized as preliminary, encouraged the study sponsor, Niramai, to start planning a large-scale, multicountry trial.

But Dr. Kopans, who serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China, suggested that this research will be fruitless. “Thermal imaging seems to raise its head every few years since it is passive, but it does not work and is a waste of money,” Dr. Kopans reiterated.

“Its use can be dangerous by dissuading women from being screened with mammography, which has been proven to save lives,” he stressed.
 

Thermalytix compared with mammography

Investigators also compared screening results in the subset of 242 women who underwent both Thermalytix and mammography. Results showed that Thermalytix had a higher sensitivity than did mammography (91.23% vs. 85.96%), but mammography had a higher specificity than Thermalytix did (94.05% vs. 68.65%).

In the asymptomatic group who underwent both tests (n = 95), four cancers were detected, and Thermalytix demonstrated superior sensitivity than mammography (100% vs. 50%), Mr. Kakileti and colleagues state.
 

Thermalytix evaluates vascularity variations too

In the subset of 228 women who did not undergo mammography (owing to dense breasts, younger age, or other reasons), Thermalytix detected tumors in all but 3 of 21 patients who went on to be diagnosed with breast cancer. The authors state that, because their artificial intelligence–based analysis uses vascularity, as well as temperature variations on the skin, to complement hot-spot detection, it is able to detect small lesions.

In the current study, 24 malignant tumors were less than 2 cm in diameter, and Thermalytix was able to identify 17 of the tumors as positive, for a 71% sensitivity rate for T1 tumors. This compared with a 68% sensitivity rate for mammography for detecting the same T1 tumors. Thermalytix also showed promising results in women younger than 40 years, for whom screening mammography is not usually recommended. The automated test picked up all 11 tumors eventually diagnosed in this younger cohort.

“Thermalytix is a portable, noninvasive, radiation-free test that has shown promising results in this preliminary study,” the investigators wrote, “[and] it can be an affordable and scalable method of screening in remote areas,” they added.

“We believe that Thermalytix ... is poised to be a promising modality for breast cancer screening,” Mr. Kakileti and colleagues summarized.
 

The FDA warns about thermography in place of mammography

The US Food and Drug Administration fairly recently warned against the use of thermography as an alternative to mammography for breast cancer screening or diagnosis, noting that it has received reports that facilities where thermography is offered often provide false information about the technology that can mislead patients into believing that it is either an alternative to or a better option than mammography.

Dr. Kopans says that other groups have invested in thermography research. “The Israelis spent millions working on a similar approach that didn’t work,” he commented.

The new software from Thermalytix, which is derived from artificial intelligence, is a “gimmick,” says the Boston radiologist. “If the basic information is not there, a computer cannot find it,” he stated, referring to what he believes are deeper-tissue tumors that are inaccessible to heat-detecting technology.

Mr. Kakileti is an employee of Nirami Health Analytix and owns stock and has filed patents with the company. Other investigators are also employed by the same company or receive research and other funding or have patents filed by the company as well. Dr. Kopans serves as a consultant to DART, which produces digital breast tomosynthesis units in China.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

COVID-19 cases are surging in rural places across the Mountain States and Midwest, and when it hits health care workers, ready reinforcements aren’t easy to find.

In Montana, pandemic-induced staffing shortages have shuttered a clinic in the state’s capital, led a northwestern regional hospital to ask employees exposed to COVID-19 to continue to work and emptied a health department 400 miles to the east.

“Just one more person out and we wouldn’t be able to keep the surgeries going,” said Dr. Shelly Harkins, MD, chief medical officer of St. Peter’s Health in Helena, a city of roughly 32,000 where cases continue to spread. “When the virus is just all around you, it’s almost impossible to not be deemed a contact at some point. One case can take out a whole team of people in a blink of an eye.”

In North Dakota, where cases per resident are growing faster than any other state, hospitals may once again curtail elective surgeries and possibly seek government aid to hire more nurses if the situation gets worse, North Dakota Hospital Association President Tim Blasl said.

“How long can we run at this rate with the workforce that we have?” Blasl said. “You can have all the licensed beds you want, but if you don’t have anybody to staff those beds, it doesn’t do you any good.”

The northern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains and Upper Midwest are seeing the highest surge of COVID-19 cases in the nation, as some residents have ignored recommendations for curtailing the virus, such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings. Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin have recently ranked among the top 10 U.S. states in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents over a 7-day period, according to an analysis  by the New York Times.

Such coronavirus infections – and the quarantines that occur because of them – are exacerbating the health care worker shortage that existed in these states well before the pandemic. Unlike in the nation’s metropolitan hubs, these outbreaks are scattered across hundreds of miles. And even in these states’ biggest cities, the ranks of medical professionals are in short supply. Specialists and registered nurses are sometimes harder to track down than ventilators, N95 masks or hospital beds. Without enough care providers, patients may not be able to get the medical attention they need.

Hospitals have asked staffers to cover extra shifts and learn new skills. They have brought in temporary workers from other parts of the country and transferred some patients to less-crowded hospitals. But, at St. Peter’s Health, if the hospital’s one kidney doctor gets sick or is told to quarantine, Dr. Harkins doesn’t expect to find a backup.

“We make a point to not have excessive staff because we have an obligation to keep the cost of health care down for a community – we just don’t have a lot of slack in our rope,” Dr. Harkins said. “What we don’t account for is a mass exodus of staff for 14 days.”

Some hospitals are already at patient capacity or are nearly there. That’s not just because of the growing number of COVID-19 patients. Elective surgeries have resumed, and medical emergencies don’t pause for a pandemic.

Some Montana hospitals formed agreements with local affiliates early in the pandemic to share staff if one came up short. But now that the disease is spreading fast – and widely – the hope is that their needs don’t peak all at once.

Montana state officials keep a list of primarily in-state volunteer workers ready to travel to towns with shortages of contact tracers, nurses and more. But during a press conference on Oct. 15, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock said the state had exhausted that database, and its nationwide request for National Guard medical staffing hadn’t brought in new workers.

“If you are a registered nurse, licensed practical nurse, paramedic, EMT, CNA or contact tracer, and are able to join our workforce, please do consider joining our team,” Gov. Bullock said.

This month, Kalispell Regional Medical Center in northwestern Montana even stopped quarantining COVID-exposed staff who remain asymptomatic, a change allowed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for health facilities facing staffing shortages.

“That’s very telling for what staffing is going through right now,” said Andrea Lueck, a registered nurse at the center. “We’re so tight that employees are called off of quarantine.”

Financial pressure early in the pandemic led the hospital to furlough staff, but it had to bring most of them back to work because it needs those bodies more than ever. The regional hub is based in Flathead County, which has recorded the state’s second-highest number of active COVID-19 cases.

Mellody Sharpton, a hospital spokesperson, said hospital workers who are exposed to someone infected with the virus are tested within three to five days and monitored for symptoms. The hospital is also pulling in new workers, with 25 traveling health professionals on hand and another 25 temporary ones on the way.

But Ms. Sharpton said the best way to conserve the hospital’s workforce is to stop the disease surge in the community.

Earlier in the pandemic, Central Montana Medical Center in Lewistown, a town of fewer than 6,000, experienced an exodus of part-time workers or those close to retirement who decided their jobs weren’t worth the risk. The facility recently secured two traveling workers, but both backed out because they couldn’t find housing. And, so far, roughly 40 of the hospital’s 322 employees have missed work for reasons connected to COVID-19.

“We’re at a critical staffing shortage and have been since the beginning of COVID,” said Joanie Slaybaugh, Central Montana Medical Center’s director of human resources. “We’re small enough, everybody feels an obligation to protect themselves and to protect each other. But it doesn’t take much to take out our staff.”

Roosevelt County, where roughly 11,000 live on the northeastern edge of Montana, had one of the nation’s highest rates of new cases as of Oct. 15. But by the end of the month, the county health department will lose half of its registered nurses as one person is about to retire and another was hired through a grant that’s ending. That leaves only one registered nurse aside from its director, Patty Presser. The health department already had to close earlier during the pandemic because of COVID exposure and not enough staffers to cover the gap. Now, if Ms. Presser can’t find nurse replacements in time, she hopes volunteers will step in, though she added they typically stay for only a few weeks.

“I need someone to do immunizations for my community, and you don’t become an immunization nurse in 14 days,” she said. “We don’t have the workforce here to deal with this virus, not even right now, and then I’m going to have my best two people go.”

Back in Helena, Dr. Harkins said St. Peter’s Health had to close a specialty outpatient clinic that treats chronic diseases for two weeks at the end of September because the entire staff had to quarantine.

Now the hospital is considering having doctors take turns spending a week working from home, so that if another wave of quarantines hits in the hospital, at least one untainted person can be brought back to work. But that won’t help for some specialties, like the hospital’s sole kidney doctor.

Every time Dr. Harkins’ phone rings, she said, she takes a breath and hopes it’s not another case that will force a whole division to close.

“Because I think immediately of the hundreds of people that need that service and won’t have it for 14 days,” she said.

Kaiser Health News is a nonprofit news service covering health issues. It is an editorially independent program of KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation), which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

COVID-19 cases are surging in rural places across the Mountain States and Midwest, and when it hits health care workers, ready reinforcements aren’t easy to find.

In Montana, pandemic-induced staffing shortages have shuttered a clinic in the state’s capital, led a northwestern regional hospital to ask employees exposed to COVID-19 to continue to work and emptied a health department 400 miles to the east.

“Just one more person out and we wouldn’t be able to keep the surgeries going,” said Dr. Shelly Harkins, MD, chief medical officer of St. Peter’s Health in Helena, a city of roughly 32,000 where cases continue to spread. “When the virus is just all around you, it’s almost impossible to not be deemed a contact at some point. One case can take out a whole team of people in a blink of an eye.”

In North Dakota, where cases per resident are growing faster than any other state, hospitals may once again curtail elective surgeries and possibly seek government aid to hire more nurses if the situation gets worse, North Dakota Hospital Association President Tim Blasl said.

“How long can we run at this rate with the workforce that we have?” Blasl said. “You can have all the licensed beds you want, but if you don’t have anybody to staff those beds, it doesn’t do you any good.”

The northern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains and Upper Midwest are seeing the highest surge of COVID-19 cases in the nation, as some residents have ignored recommendations for curtailing the virus, such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings. Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin have recently ranked among the top 10 U.S. states in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents over a 7-day period, according to an analysis  by the New York Times.

Such coronavirus infections – and the quarantines that occur because of them – are exacerbating the health care worker shortage that existed in these states well before the pandemic. Unlike in the nation’s metropolitan hubs, these outbreaks are scattered across hundreds of miles. And even in these states’ biggest cities, the ranks of medical professionals are in short supply. Specialists and registered nurses are sometimes harder to track down than ventilators, N95 masks or hospital beds. Without enough care providers, patients may not be able to get the medical attention they need.

Hospitals have asked staffers to cover extra shifts and learn new skills. They have brought in temporary workers from other parts of the country and transferred some patients to less-crowded hospitals. But, at St. Peter’s Health, if the hospital’s one kidney doctor gets sick or is told to quarantine, Dr. Harkins doesn’t expect to find a backup.

“We make a point to not have excessive staff because we have an obligation to keep the cost of health care down for a community – we just don’t have a lot of slack in our rope,” Dr. Harkins said. “What we don’t account for is a mass exodus of staff for 14 days.”

Some hospitals are already at patient capacity or are nearly there. That’s not just because of the growing number of COVID-19 patients. Elective surgeries have resumed, and medical emergencies don’t pause for a pandemic.

Some Montana hospitals formed agreements with local affiliates early in the pandemic to share staff if one came up short. But now that the disease is spreading fast – and widely – the hope is that their needs don’t peak all at once.

Montana state officials keep a list of primarily in-state volunteer workers ready to travel to towns with shortages of contact tracers, nurses and more. But during a press conference on Oct. 15, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock said the state had exhausted that database, and its nationwide request for National Guard medical staffing hadn’t brought in new workers.

“If you are a registered nurse, licensed practical nurse, paramedic, EMT, CNA or contact tracer, and are able to join our workforce, please do consider joining our team,” Gov. Bullock said.

This month, Kalispell Regional Medical Center in northwestern Montana even stopped quarantining COVID-exposed staff who remain asymptomatic, a change allowed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for health facilities facing staffing shortages.

“That’s very telling for what staffing is going through right now,” said Andrea Lueck, a registered nurse at the center. “We’re so tight that employees are called off of quarantine.”

Financial pressure early in the pandemic led the hospital to furlough staff, but it had to bring most of them back to work because it needs those bodies more than ever. The regional hub is based in Flathead County, which has recorded the state’s second-highest number of active COVID-19 cases.

Mellody Sharpton, a hospital spokesperson, said hospital workers who are exposed to someone infected with the virus are tested within three to five days and monitored for symptoms. The hospital is also pulling in new workers, with 25 traveling health professionals on hand and another 25 temporary ones on the way.

But Ms. Sharpton said the best way to conserve the hospital’s workforce is to stop the disease surge in the community.

Earlier in the pandemic, Central Montana Medical Center in Lewistown, a town of fewer than 6,000, experienced an exodus of part-time workers or those close to retirement who decided their jobs weren’t worth the risk. The facility recently secured two traveling workers, but both backed out because they couldn’t find housing. And, so far, roughly 40 of the hospital’s 322 employees have missed work for reasons connected to COVID-19.

“We’re at a critical staffing shortage and have been since the beginning of COVID,” said Joanie Slaybaugh, Central Montana Medical Center’s director of human resources. “We’re small enough, everybody feels an obligation to protect themselves and to protect each other. But it doesn’t take much to take out our staff.”

Roosevelt County, where roughly 11,000 live on the northeastern edge of Montana, had one of the nation’s highest rates of new cases as of Oct. 15. But by the end of the month, the county health department will lose half of its registered nurses as one person is about to retire and another was hired through a grant that’s ending. That leaves only one registered nurse aside from its director, Patty Presser. The health department already had to close earlier during the pandemic because of COVID exposure and not enough staffers to cover the gap. Now, if Ms. Presser can’t find nurse replacements in time, she hopes volunteers will step in, though she added they typically stay for only a few weeks.

“I need someone to do immunizations for my community, and you don’t become an immunization nurse in 14 days,” she said. “We don’t have the workforce here to deal with this virus, not even right now, and then I’m going to have my best two people go.”

Back in Helena, Dr. Harkins said St. Peter’s Health had to close a specialty outpatient clinic that treats chronic diseases for two weeks at the end of September because the entire staff had to quarantine.

Now the hospital is considering having doctors take turns spending a week working from home, so that if another wave of quarantines hits in the hospital, at least one untainted person can be brought back to work. But that won’t help for some specialties, like the hospital’s sole kidney doctor.

Every time Dr. Harkins’ phone rings, she said, she takes a breath and hopes it’s not another case that will force a whole division to close.

“Because I think immediately of the hundreds of people that need that service and won’t have it for 14 days,” she said.

Kaiser Health News is a nonprofit news service covering health issues. It is an editorially independent program of KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation), which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

COVID-19 cases are surging in rural places across the Mountain States and Midwest, and when it hits health care workers, ready reinforcements aren’t easy to find.

In Montana, pandemic-induced staffing shortages have shuttered a clinic in the state’s capital, led a northwestern regional hospital to ask employees exposed to COVID-19 to continue to work and emptied a health department 400 miles to the east.

“Just one more person out and we wouldn’t be able to keep the surgeries going,” said Dr. Shelly Harkins, MD, chief medical officer of St. Peter’s Health in Helena, a city of roughly 32,000 where cases continue to spread. “When the virus is just all around you, it’s almost impossible to not be deemed a contact at some point. One case can take out a whole team of people in a blink of an eye.”

In North Dakota, where cases per resident are growing faster than any other state, hospitals may once again curtail elective surgeries and possibly seek government aid to hire more nurses if the situation gets worse, North Dakota Hospital Association President Tim Blasl said.

“How long can we run at this rate with the workforce that we have?” Blasl said. “You can have all the licensed beds you want, but if you don’t have anybody to staff those beds, it doesn’t do you any good.”

The northern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains and Upper Midwest are seeing the highest surge of COVID-19 cases in the nation, as some residents have ignored recommendations for curtailing the virus, such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings. Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin have recently ranked among the top 10 U.S. states in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents over a 7-day period, according to an analysis  by the New York Times.

Such coronavirus infections – and the quarantines that occur because of them – are exacerbating the health care worker shortage that existed in these states well before the pandemic. Unlike in the nation’s metropolitan hubs, these outbreaks are scattered across hundreds of miles. And even in these states’ biggest cities, the ranks of medical professionals are in short supply. Specialists and registered nurses are sometimes harder to track down than ventilators, N95 masks or hospital beds. Without enough care providers, patients may not be able to get the medical attention they need.

Hospitals have asked staffers to cover extra shifts and learn new skills. They have brought in temporary workers from other parts of the country and transferred some patients to less-crowded hospitals. But, at St. Peter’s Health, if the hospital’s one kidney doctor gets sick or is told to quarantine, Dr. Harkins doesn’t expect to find a backup.

“We make a point to not have excessive staff because we have an obligation to keep the cost of health care down for a community – we just don’t have a lot of slack in our rope,” Dr. Harkins said. “What we don’t account for is a mass exodus of staff for 14 days.”

Some hospitals are already at patient capacity or are nearly there. That’s not just because of the growing number of COVID-19 patients. Elective surgeries have resumed, and medical emergencies don’t pause for a pandemic.

Some Montana hospitals formed agreements with local affiliates early in the pandemic to share staff if one came up short. But now that the disease is spreading fast – and widely – the hope is that their needs don’t peak all at once.

Montana state officials keep a list of primarily in-state volunteer workers ready to travel to towns with shortages of contact tracers, nurses and more. But during a press conference on Oct. 15, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock said the state had exhausted that database, and its nationwide request for National Guard medical staffing hadn’t brought in new workers.

“If you are a registered nurse, licensed practical nurse, paramedic, EMT, CNA or contact tracer, and are able to join our workforce, please do consider joining our team,” Gov. Bullock said.

This month, Kalispell Regional Medical Center in northwestern Montana even stopped quarantining COVID-exposed staff who remain asymptomatic, a change allowed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for health facilities facing staffing shortages.

“That’s very telling for what staffing is going through right now,” said Andrea Lueck, a registered nurse at the center. “We’re so tight that employees are called off of quarantine.”

Financial pressure early in the pandemic led the hospital to furlough staff, but it had to bring most of them back to work because it needs those bodies more than ever. The regional hub is based in Flathead County, which has recorded the state’s second-highest number of active COVID-19 cases.

Mellody Sharpton, a hospital spokesperson, said hospital workers who are exposed to someone infected with the virus are tested within three to five days and monitored for symptoms. The hospital is also pulling in new workers, with 25 traveling health professionals on hand and another 25 temporary ones on the way.

But Ms. Sharpton said the best way to conserve the hospital’s workforce is to stop the disease surge in the community.

Earlier in the pandemic, Central Montana Medical Center in Lewistown, a town of fewer than 6,000, experienced an exodus of part-time workers or those close to retirement who decided their jobs weren’t worth the risk. The facility recently secured two traveling workers, but both backed out because they couldn’t find housing. And, so far, roughly 40 of the hospital’s 322 employees have missed work for reasons connected to COVID-19.

“We’re at a critical staffing shortage and have been since the beginning of COVID,” said Joanie Slaybaugh, Central Montana Medical Center’s director of human resources. “We’re small enough, everybody feels an obligation to protect themselves and to protect each other. But it doesn’t take much to take out our staff.”

Roosevelt County, where roughly 11,000 live on the northeastern edge of Montana, had one of the nation’s highest rates of new cases as of Oct. 15. But by the end of the month, the county health department will lose half of its registered nurses as one person is about to retire and another was hired through a grant that’s ending. That leaves only one registered nurse aside from its director, Patty Presser. The health department already had to close earlier during the pandemic because of COVID exposure and not enough staffers to cover the gap. Now, if Ms. Presser can’t find nurse replacements in time, she hopes volunteers will step in, though she added they typically stay for only a few weeks.

“I need someone to do immunizations for my community, and you don’t become an immunization nurse in 14 days,” she said. “We don’t have the workforce here to deal with this virus, not even right now, and then I’m going to have my best two people go.”

Back in Helena, Dr. Harkins said St. Peter’s Health had to close a specialty outpatient clinic that treats chronic diseases for two weeks at the end of September because the entire staff had to quarantine.

Now the hospital is considering having doctors take turns spending a week working from home, so that if another wave of quarantines hits in the hospital, at least one untainted person can be brought back to work. But that won’t help for some specialties, like the hospital’s sole kidney doctor.

Every time Dr. Harkins’ phone rings, she said, she takes a breath and hopes it’s not another case that will force a whole division to close.

“Because I think immediately of the hundreds of people that need that service and won’t have it for 14 days,” she said.

Kaiser Health News is a nonprofit news service covering health issues. It is an editorially independent program of KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation), which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

Sugary and artificially sweetened drinks are each associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, according to results from a large prospective cohort study.

© Irochka/Fotolia.com

However, the design of that study fails to take into account other sources of dietary sugar, according to one expert.

In a research letter published online Oct. 26 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Eloi Chazelas, a PhD candidate at Sorbonne Paris Nord University in Paris, and colleagues, shared results from nearly 105,000 subjects (79% women, mean age 43 at baseline, median follow up 6.6 years) enrolled in the NutriNet-Santé cohort study.

In this observational study, which began recruiting in 2009, dietary patterns are self-reported by subjects, while health outcomes are validated by investigators.

Mr. Chazelas and his colleagues identified 1,379 first incident cases of stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, and angioplasty in the cohort during 2009-2019. Cases that occurred during the first 3 years’ follow up were excluded from the analysis, to avoid potential reverse causality bias.

After adjustment for a wide range of dietary, demographic and health confounders, the investigators found that high consumers of sugary drinks or artificially sweetened drinks saw 20% and 32% higher risk of such events, respectively, compared with people who reported drinking neither beverage type (hazard ratio: 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.40, P for trend < .0009 and HR: 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73, P for trend < .03).

Sugary drinks were defined as containing 5% or more of sugars, including natural fruit juices. The high consumers in the study had a median intake of 185 mL per day of sugary drinks, or 176 mL per day for artificially sweetened drinks. Natural noncaloric sweeteners such as Stevia were included in the artificially sweetened group.

The findings, Mr. Chazelas and colleagues wrote in their analysis, add to evidence that artificially sweetened beverages “might not be a healthy substitute for sugary drinks.” While research has suggested that artificial sweeteners induce glucose intolerance by disturbing gut microbiota, they noted, more and bigger studies are needed to understand the mechanisms by which they might bear on cardiovascular disease risk.

Robert A. Vogel, MD, of the University of Colorado Denver, urged caution in interpreting the researchers’ results. In an interview, Dr. Vogel, a preventive cardiologist, said that it is “notoriously difficult” to evaluate what a food or food group does to the body outside of a carefully controlled trial. What little randomized trial evidence exists comparing the health effects of artificially sweetened and sugary drinks includes a 2012 trial in children that found diet drinks associated with reductions in body fat – if anything a positive indication for heart health.

SOURCE: Chazelas et al. JACC 2020;76(18):2175-80.

Sugary and artificially sweetened drinks are each associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, according to results from a large prospective cohort study.

© Irochka/Fotolia.com

However, the design of that study fails to take into account other sources of dietary sugar, according to one expert.

In a research letter published online Oct. 26 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Eloi Chazelas, a PhD candidate at Sorbonne Paris Nord University in Paris, and colleagues, shared results from nearly 105,000 subjects (79% women, mean age 43 at baseline, median follow up 6.6 years) enrolled in the NutriNet-Santé cohort study.

In this observational study, which began recruiting in 2009, dietary patterns are self-reported by subjects, while health outcomes are validated by investigators.

Mr. Chazelas and his colleagues identified 1,379 first incident cases of stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, and angioplasty in the cohort during 2009-2019. Cases that occurred during the first 3 years’ follow up were excluded from the analysis, to avoid potential reverse causality bias.

After adjustment for a wide range of dietary, demographic and health confounders, the investigators found that high consumers of sugary drinks or artificially sweetened drinks saw 20% and 32% higher risk of such events, respectively, compared with people who reported drinking neither beverage type (hazard ratio: 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.40, P for trend < .0009 and HR: 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73, P for trend < .03).

Sugary drinks were defined as containing 5% or more of sugars, including natural fruit juices. The high consumers in the study had a median intake of 185 mL per day of sugary drinks, or 176 mL per day for artificially sweetened drinks. Natural noncaloric sweeteners such as Stevia were included in the artificially sweetened group.

The findings, Mr. Chazelas and colleagues wrote in their analysis, add to evidence that artificially sweetened beverages “might not be a healthy substitute for sugary drinks.” While research has suggested that artificial sweeteners induce glucose intolerance by disturbing gut microbiota, they noted, more and bigger studies are needed to understand the mechanisms by which they might bear on cardiovascular disease risk.

Robert A. Vogel, MD, of the University of Colorado Denver, urged caution in interpreting the researchers’ results. In an interview, Dr. Vogel, a preventive cardiologist, said that it is “notoriously difficult” to evaluate what a food or food group does to the body outside of a carefully controlled trial. What little randomized trial evidence exists comparing the health effects of artificially sweetened and sugary drinks includes a 2012 trial in children that found diet drinks associated with reductions in body fat – if anything a positive indication for heart health.

SOURCE: Chazelas et al. JACC 2020;76(18):2175-80.

Sugary and artificially sweetened drinks are each associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, according to results from a large prospective cohort study.

© Irochka/Fotolia.com

However, the design of that study fails to take into account other sources of dietary sugar, according to one expert.

In a research letter published online Oct. 26 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Eloi Chazelas, a PhD candidate at Sorbonne Paris Nord University in Paris, and colleagues, shared results from nearly 105,000 subjects (79% women, mean age 43 at baseline, median follow up 6.6 years) enrolled in the NutriNet-Santé cohort study.

In this observational study, which began recruiting in 2009, dietary patterns are self-reported by subjects, while health outcomes are validated by investigators.

Mr. Chazelas and his colleagues identified 1,379 first incident cases of stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, and angioplasty in the cohort during 2009-2019. Cases that occurred during the first 3 years’ follow up were excluded from the analysis, to avoid potential reverse causality bias.

After adjustment for a wide range of dietary, demographic and health confounders, the investigators found that high consumers of sugary drinks or artificially sweetened drinks saw 20% and 32% higher risk of such events, respectively, compared with people who reported drinking neither beverage type (hazard ratio: 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.40, P for trend < .0009 and HR: 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73, P for trend < .03).

Sugary drinks were defined as containing 5% or more of sugars, including natural fruit juices. The high consumers in the study had a median intake of 185 mL per day of sugary drinks, or 176 mL per day for artificially sweetened drinks. Natural noncaloric sweeteners such as Stevia were included in the artificially sweetened group.

The findings, Mr. Chazelas and colleagues wrote in their analysis, add to evidence that artificially sweetened beverages “might not be a healthy substitute for sugary drinks.” While research has suggested that artificial sweeteners induce glucose intolerance by disturbing gut microbiota, they noted, more and bigger studies are needed to understand the mechanisms by which they might bear on cardiovascular disease risk.

Robert A. Vogel, MD, of the University of Colorado Denver, urged caution in interpreting the researchers’ results. In an interview, Dr. Vogel, a preventive cardiologist, said that it is “notoriously difficult” to evaluate what a food or food group does to the body outside of a carefully controlled trial. What little randomized trial evidence exists comparing the health effects of artificially sweetened and sugary drinks includes a 2012 trial in children that found diet drinks associated with reductions in body fat – if anything a positive indication for heart health.

SOURCE: Chazelas et al. JACC 2020;76(18):2175-80.

Some medical societies feature sessions at their annual meetings that feel like they’re 24 hours long, yet few have the courage to schedule a session that actually runs all day and all night. But the five societies sponsoring the IDWeek conference had that courage. The first 24 hours of the meeting was devoted to the most pressing infectious-disease crisis of the last 100 years: the COVID-19 pandemic. They called it “COVID-19: Chasing the Sun.”

Dr. Fauci predicts a vaccine answer in mid-November

In the first segment, at 10 am Eastern time, Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, began the day by noting that five of the six companies the US invested in to develop a vaccine are conducting phase 3 trials. He said, “we feel confident that we will have an answer likely in mid-November to the beginning of December as to whether we have a safe and effective vaccine”. He added he was “cautiously optimistic” that “we will have a safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year, which we can begin to distribute as we go into 2021.” He highlighted the COVID-19 Prevention Network website for more information on the trials.

Glaring racial health disparities in U.S.

Some of the most glaring health disparities surrounding COVID-19 in the United States were described by Carlos del Rio, MD, professor of medicine at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. He pointed out that while white people have about 23 cases per 10,000 population, Blacks have about 62 cases per 10,000, and Latinos have 73 cases per 10,000. While whites don’t see a huge jump in cases until age 80, he said, “among Blacks and Latinos you start seeing that huge increase at a younger age. In fact, starting at age 20, you start seeing a major, major change.”

COVID-19 diagnostics

Audrey Odom John, MD, PhD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is working on a new way of diagnosing COVID-19 infection in children by testing their breath. “We’re really taking advantage of a fundamental biological fact, which is that people stink,” she said. Breath shows the health of the body as a whole, “and it’s easy to see how breath volatiles might arise from a respiratory infection.” Testing breath is easy and inexpensive, which makes it particularly attractive as a potential test globally, she said.

Long-term effects of COVID-19

Post-COVID illness threatens to overwhelm the health system in the United States, even if only 1% of the 8 million people who have been infected have some sort of long-term deficit, “which would be a very conservative estimate,” said John O’Horo, MD, MPH, with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. Neurologic dysfunction is going to be a “fairly significant thing to keep an eye on,” he added. Preeti Malani, MD, chief health officer in infectious diseases at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, said the emotional aspects of the illness are “striking” and may be the major long-term effect for most patients.

Challenging cases in COVID-19: Through fire and water

In a case presented to panelists during an afternoon session, a Mexican-born woman, 42, presents to urgent care with fever, dyspnea, dry cough, and pleuritic pain, for over a week. Multiple family members have had recent respiratory illness as well. She is obese, on no medications, was not traveling. She’s a nonsmoker and lives in a multigenerational household in the Mission District of San Francisco. Her heart rate is 116, respiratory rate is 36, and her oxygen saturation on room air is 77%. She is admitted to a local hospital and quickly declines, is intubated and started on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). One day later she is transferred to a hospital for consideration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Panelists were asked a variety of questions about how they would treat this patient. For example, would they continue HCQ? Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, an infectious disease expert from Newport Beach, Calif., answered that she would not continue the HCQ because of lack of evidence and potential harms. Asked whether she would start remdesivir, Dr. Kullar said she would steer her away from that if the patient developed renal failure. Co-moderator Peter Chin-Hong, MD, a medical educator with the University of California, San Francisco, noted that contact tracing will be important as the patient returns to her housing-dense community.
 

In-hospital infection prevention

The CDC acknowledged aerosol spread of COVID-19 this month, but David Weber, MD, MPH, professor in infectious diseases at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, “this does not change anything we need to do in the hospital,” as long as protective pandemic protocols continue to be followed.

There is no evidence, he noted, that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted far enough that a hospitalized patient could infect people in other rooms or corridors or floors. Opening windows in COVID-19 patients’ rooms is “not an option,” he said, and could be harmful as fungal elements in outside air may introduce new pathogens. The degree to which improved ventilation systems reduce transmission has not been identified and studies are needed to look at that, he said.
 

Preventing COVID transmission in the community

Mary-Margaret Fill, MD, deputy state epidemiologist in Tennessee, highlighted COVID-19’s spread in prisons. As of mid-October, she said, there are more than 147,000 cases among the U.S. prison population and there have been 1,246 deaths. This translates to a case rate of about 9800 cases per 100,000 people, she said, “double the highest case rate for any state in the country and over three times greater than our national case rate of about 2,500 cases per 100,000 persons.”

Testing varies widely, she noted. For instance, some states test only new prisoners, and some test only when they are symptomatic. One of the strategies to fight this spread is having staff, who go in and out of the community, be assigned to work with only certain groups at a prison. Another is widespread testing of all prisoners. And when prisoners have to leave the prison for care or court dates, a third strategy would be quarantining them upon their return.
 

COVID-19 vaccines

As the session stretched into the evening in the United States, Mary Marovich, MD, director of vaccine research, AIDS division, with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health, said while each of the government-funded vaccine studies has its own trial, there are standardized objectives for direct comparisons. The studies are being conducted within the same clinical trial networks, and collaborative laboratories apply the same immunoassays and define the infections in the same way. They are all randomized, placebo-controlled trials and all but one have a 30,000-volunteer sample size. She said that while a vaccine is the goal to end the pandemic, monoclonal antibodies, such as those in convalescent plasma, “may serve as a critical bridge.”

The good, the bad, and the ugly during COVID-19 in Latin America

Latin America and the Caribbean are currently the regions hardest hit by COVID-19. Gustavo D. Lopardo, of the Asociacion Panamericana de Infectologia, noted that even before the pandemic Latin America suffered from widespread poverty and inequality. While overcrowding and poverty are determining factors in the spread of the virus, diabetes and obesity – both highly prevalent – are worsening COVID outcomes.

The countries of the region have dealt with asynchronous waves of transmission within their borders by implementing different containment strategies, with dissimilar results. The presenters covered the spectrum of the pandemic, from the “ugly” in Peru, which has the highest mortality rate in the region, to the “good” in Uruguay, where testing is “winning against COVID-19.” Paradoxically, Chile has both the highest cumulative incidence and the lowest case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the region.

In the social and political turmoil imposed by COVID-19, Clóvis Arns da Cunha, MD, president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and professor at the Federal University of Paraná, pointed out that “fake news [has become] a public health problem in Brazil” and elsewhere.
 

Diagnostics and therapeutics in Latin America

Eleven of the 15 countries with the highest death rate in the world are located in Latin America or the Caribbean. Dr. Arns de Cunha pointed out that tests are hard to come by and inadequate diagnostic testing is a major problem. Latin American countries have not been able to compete with the United States and Europe in purchasing polymerase chain reaction test kits from China and South Korea. The test is the best diagnostic tool in the first week of symptoms, but its scale-up has proved to be a challenge in Latin America.

Furthermore, the most sensitive serological markers, CLIA and ECLIA, which perform best after 2 weeks of symptom onset, are not widely available in Latin America where many patients do not have access to the public health system. The detection of silent hypoxemia in symptomatic patients with COVID-19 can save lives; hence, Arns da Cunha praised the program that distributed 100,000 digital oximeters to hundreds of cities in Brazil, targeting vulnerable populations.
 

The COVID-19 experience in Japan

Takuya Yamagishi, MD, PhD, chief of the Antimicrobial Resistance Research Center at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan, played an instrumental role in the epidemiological investigation that took place on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in February 2020. That COVID-19 outbreak is the largest disease outbreak involving a cruise ship to date, with 712 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 13 deaths.

The ship-based quarantine prompted a massive public health response with unique challenges. In those early days, investigators uncovered important facts about COVID-19 epidemiology, generating hot debates regarding the public health strategy at the time. Notably, the majority of asymptomatically infected persons remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection, transmission from asymptomatic cases was almost as likely as transmission from symptomatic cases, and isolation of passengers in their cabins prevented inter-cabin transmission but not intra-cabin transmission.
 

Swift response in Asia Pacific region

Infectious-disease experts from Taiwan, Singapore, and Australia, who have been at the forefront of clinical care, research, and policy-making, spoke about their experiences.

Taiwan was one of the first countries to adopt a swift response to COVID-19, shortly after they recognized an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in China and long before the WHO declared a public health emergency, said Ping-Ing Lee, MD, PhD, from the National Taiwan University Children’s Hospital.

The country began onboard health checks on flights from Wuhan as early as Dec. 31, 2019. Dr. Lee attributed Taiwan’s success in prevention and control of COVID-19 to the rigorous use of face masks and environmental disinfection procedures. Regarding the country’s antilockdown stance, he said, “Lockdown may be effective; however, it is associated with a tremendous economic loss.”

In his presentation on remdesivir vs corticosteroids, David Lye, MBBS, said, “I think remdesivir as an antiviral seems to work well given early, but steroids will need to be studied further in terms of its conflicting evidence in multiple well-designed RCTs as well as [their] potential side effects.” He is director of the Infectious Disease Research and Training Office, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore.

Allen C. Cheng, MBBS, PhD, of Monash University in Melbourne, noted that “control is possible. We seemed to have controlled this twice at the moment with fairly draconian action, but every day does matter.”
 

China past the first wave

China has already passed the first wave, explained Lei Zhou, MD, of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, but there are still some small-scale resurgences. So far a total of four waves have been identified. She also mentioned that contact tracing is intense and highlighted the case of Xinfadi Market in Beijing, the site of an outbreak in June 2020.

Gui-Qiang Wang, MD, from the Department of Infectious Disease, Peking University First Hospital, emphasized the importance of a chest CT for the diagnosis of COVID-19. “In the early stage of the disease, patients may not show any symptoms; however, on CT scan you can see pneumonia. Also, early intervention of high-risk groups and monitoring of warning indicators for disease progression is extremely important,” he said.

“Early antiviral therapy is expected to stop progression, but still needs evaluation,” he said. “Convalescent plasma is safe and effective, but its source is limited; steroid therapy needs to explore appropriate population and timing; and thymosin α is safe, and its effect on outcomes needs large-sample clinical trial.”

Time to Call for an ‘Arab CDC?’

The eastern Mediterranean is geographically, politically, economically, and religiously a very distinct and sensitive region, and “COVID-19 is an added insult to this already frail region of the world,” said Zaid Haddadin, MD, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tenn.

Poor healthcare and poor public health services are a consequence of weak and fragile governments and infrastructure, the result of war and regional conflicts in many countries. Millions of war refugees live in camps with high population densities and shared facilities, which makes social distancing and community mitigation very challenging. Moreover, the culture includes frequent large social gatherings. Millions of pilgrims visit holy sites in different cities in these countries. There is also movement due to trade and tourism. Travel restrictions are challenging, and there is limited comprehension of precautionary measures.

Najwa Khuri-Bulos, professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at the University of Jordan, was part of a task force headed by the country’s Ministry of Health. A lockdown was implemented, which helped flatten the curve, but the loosening of restrictions has led to a recent increase in cases. She said, “No country can succeed in controlling spread without the regional collaboration. Perhaps it is time to adopt the call for an Arab CDC.”
 

Africa is “not out of the woods yet”

The Africa CDC has three key pillars as the foundation for their COVID-19 strategy: preventing transmission, preventing deaths, and preventing social harm, according to Raji Tajudeen, MBBS, FWACP, MPH, head of the agency’s Public Health Institutes and Research Division. Africa, with 1.5 million cases of COVID-19, accounts for 5% of global cases. With a recovery rate of 83% and a case fatality rate of 2.4%, the African continent has fared much better than the rest of the world. “Significant improvements have been made, but we are not out of the woods yet,” he cautioned.

Richard Lessells, PhD, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal, agreed. “Unfortunately, South Africa has not been spared from the worst effects of this pandemic despite what you might read in the press and scientific coverage.” He added, “Over 50% of cases and up to two thirds of the deaths in the African region are coming from South Africa.” A bigger challenge for South Africa has been maintaining essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially since it is also at the heart of the HIV pandemic. On the brighter side, HIV itself has not emerged as a risk factor for COVID-19 infection or severe disease in South Africa.

Dimie Ogoina, MBBS, FWACP, president of the Nigerian Infectious Diseases Society, stated that COVID-19 has significantly affected access to healthcare in Nigeria, particularly immunizations and antenatal care. Immunization uptake is likely to have dropped by 50% in the country.
 

Diagnostic pitfalls in COVID-19

Technical errors associated with the SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic pipeline are a major source of variations in diagnosis, explained Jim Huggett, PhD, senior lecturer, analytical microbiology, University of Surrey, Guildford, England. He believes that PCR assays are currently too biased for a single cutoff to be broadly used, and false-positive signals are most likely because of contamination.

Dana Wolf, MD, Clinical Virology Unit, Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center in Israel, presented a large-scale data analysis of more than 133,000 pooled samples. Such a pooling strategy appeared to be highly efficient for a wide range of prevalence rates (<1% to 6%). “Our empirical evidence strongly projects on the feasibility and benefits of pooling in the current pandemic setting, to enhance continued surveillance, control, and community reopening,” she said.

Corine Geurts van Kessel, MD, PhD, Department of Virology, Erasmus University Rotterdam (the Netherlands), discussing antibodies testing for SARS-CoV-2, pointed out that disease severity can affect testing accuracy. “Reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity,” she said.
 

Misinformation in the first digital pandemic

The world is not only facing a devastating pandemic, but also an alarming “infodemic” of misinformation. Between January and March 2020, a new COVID-19–related tweet appeared on Twitter every 45 milliseconds. Müge Çevik, MD, MSc, MRCP, an infectious disease clinician, scientist, and science communicator, said that “the greatest challenge for science communication is reaching the audience.”

People have always been skeptical of science reporting by journalists and would rather have scientists communicate with them directly, she noted. Science communication plays a dual role. “On one hand is the need to promote science to a wide audience in order to inform and educate and inspire the next generation of scientists, and on the other hand there is also a need to engage effectively in public dialogue,” she added. Dr. Çevik and colleagues think that “The responsibility of academics should not end with finding the truth. It should end after communicating it.”
 

Treatment in the ICU

Matteo Bassetti, MD, with the University of Genoa (Italy), who was asked about when to use remdesivir in the intensive care unit and for how long, said, “In the majority of cases, 5 days is probably enough.” However, if there is high viremia, he said, physicians may choose to continue the regimen beyond 5 days. Data show it is important to prescribe this drug for patients with oxygen support in an early phase, within 10 days of the first symptoms, he added. “In the late phase, there is a very limited role for remdesivir, as we know that we are already out of the viremic phase.” He also emphasized that there is no role for hydroxychloroquine or lopinavir-ritonavir.

Breaking the chains of transmission

During the wrap-up session, former US CDC Director Tom Frieden, MD, said, “We’re not even halfway through it” about the pandemic trajectory. “And we have to be very clear that the risk of explosive spread will not end with a vaccine.” He is now president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives.

Different parts of the world will have very different experiences, Dr. Frieden said, noting that Africa, where 4% of the population is older than 65, has a very different risk level than Europe and the United States, where 10%-20% of people are in older age groups.

“We need a one-two punch,” he noted, first preventing spread, and when it does happen, boxing it in. Mask wearing is essential. “States in the US that mandated universal mask-wearing experienced much more rapid declines (in cases) for every 5 days the mandate was in place.”

Michael Ryan, MD, executive director for the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, added, “We need to collectively recommit to winning this game. We know how to break the chains of transmission. We need recommitment to a scientific, societal, and political strategy, and an alliance – a contract – between those entities to try to move us forward.”

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Some medical societies feature sessions at their annual meetings that feel like they’re 24 hours long, yet few have the courage to schedule a session that actually runs all day and all night. But the five societies sponsoring the IDWeek conference had that courage. The first 24 hours of the meeting was devoted to the most pressing infectious-disease crisis of the last 100 years: the COVID-19 pandemic. They called it “COVID-19: Chasing the Sun.”

Dr. Fauci predicts a vaccine answer in mid-November

In the first segment, at 10 am Eastern time, Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, began the day by noting that five of the six companies the US invested in to develop a vaccine are conducting phase 3 trials. He said, “we feel confident that we will have an answer likely in mid-November to the beginning of December as to whether we have a safe and effective vaccine”. He added he was “cautiously optimistic” that “we will have a safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year, which we can begin to distribute as we go into 2021.” He highlighted the COVID-19 Prevention Network website for more information on the trials.

Glaring racial health disparities in U.S.

Some of the most glaring health disparities surrounding COVID-19 in the United States were described by Carlos del Rio, MD, professor of medicine at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. He pointed out that while white people have about 23 cases per 10,000 population, Blacks have about 62 cases per 10,000, and Latinos have 73 cases per 10,000. While whites don’t see a huge jump in cases until age 80, he said, “among Blacks and Latinos you start seeing that huge increase at a younger age. In fact, starting at age 20, you start seeing a major, major change.”

COVID-19 diagnostics

Audrey Odom John, MD, PhD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is working on a new way of diagnosing COVID-19 infection in children by testing their breath. “We’re really taking advantage of a fundamental biological fact, which is that people stink,” she said. Breath shows the health of the body as a whole, “and it’s easy to see how breath volatiles might arise from a respiratory infection.” Testing breath is easy and inexpensive, which makes it particularly attractive as a potential test globally, she said.

Long-term effects of COVID-19

Post-COVID illness threatens to overwhelm the health system in the United States, even if only 1% of the 8 million people who have been infected have some sort of long-term deficit, “which would be a very conservative estimate,” said John O’Horo, MD, MPH, with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. Neurologic dysfunction is going to be a “fairly significant thing to keep an eye on,” he added. Preeti Malani, MD, chief health officer in infectious diseases at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, said the emotional aspects of the illness are “striking” and may be the major long-term effect for most patients.

Challenging cases in COVID-19: Through fire and water

In a case presented to panelists during an afternoon session, a Mexican-born woman, 42, presents to urgent care with fever, dyspnea, dry cough, and pleuritic pain, for over a week. Multiple family members have had recent respiratory illness as well. She is obese, on no medications, was not traveling. She’s a nonsmoker and lives in a multigenerational household in the Mission District of San Francisco. Her heart rate is 116, respiratory rate is 36, and her oxygen saturation on room air is 77%. She is admitted to a local hospital and quickly declines, is intubated and started on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). One day later she is transferred to a hospital for consideration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Panelists were asked a variety of questions about how they would treat this patient. For example, would they continue HCQ? Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, an infectious disease expert from Newport Beach, Calif., answered that she would not continue the HCQ because of lack of evidence and potential harms. Asked whether she would start remdesivir, Dr. Kullar said she would steer her away from that if the patient developed renal failure. Co-moderator Peter Chin-Hong, MD, a medical educator with the University of California, San Francisco, noted that contact tracing will be important as the patient returns to her housing-dense community.
 

In-hospital infection prevention

The CDC acknowledged aerosol spread of COVID-19 this month, but David Weber, MD, MPH, professor in infectious diseases at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, “this does not change anything we need to do in the hospital,” as long as protective pandemic protocols continue to be followed.

There is no evidence, he noted, that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted far enough that a hospitalized patient could infect people in other rooms or corridors or floors. Opening windows in COVID-19 patients’ rooms is “not an option,” he said, and could be harmful as fungal elements in outside air may introduce new pathogens. The degree to which improved ventilation systems reduce transmission has not been identified and studies are needed to look at that, he said.
 

Preventing COVID transmission in the community

Mary-Margaret Fill, MD, deputy state epidemiologist in Tennessee, highlighted COVID-19’s spread in prisons. As of mid-October, she said, there are more than 147,000 cases among the U.S. prison population and there have been 1,246 deaths. This translates to a case rate of about 9800 cases per 100,000 people, she said, “double the highest case rate for any state in the country and over three times greater than our national case rate of about 2,500 cases per 100,000 persons.”

Testing varies widely, she noted. For instance, some states test only new prisoners, and some test only when they are symptomatic. One of the strategies to fight this spread is having staff, who go in and out of the community, be assigned to work with only certain groups at a prison. Another is widespread testing of all prisoners. And when prisoners have to leave the prison for care or court dates, a third strategy would be quarantining them upon their return.
 

COVID-19 vaccines

As the session stretched into the evening in the United States, Mary Marovich, MD, director of vaccine research, AIDS division, with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health, said while each of the government-funded vaccine studies has its own trial, there are standardized objectives for direct comparisons. The studies are being conducted within the same clinical trial networks, and collaborative laboratories apply the same immunoassays and define the infections in the same way. They are all randomized, placebo-controlled trials and all but one have a 30,000-volunteer sample size. She said that while a vaccine is the goal to end the pandemic, monoclonal antibodies, such as those in convalescent plasma, “may serve as a critical bridge.”

The good, the bad, and the ugly during COVID-19 in Latin America

Latin America and the Caribbean are currently the regions hardest hit by COVID-19. Gustavo D. Lopardo, of the Asociacion Panamericana de Infectologia, noted that even before the pandemic Latin America suffered from widespread poverty and inequality. While overcrowding and poverty are determining factors in the spread of the virus, diabetes and obesity – both highly prevalent – are worsening COVID outcomes.

The countries of the region have dealt with asynchronous waves of transmission within their borders by implementing different containment strategies, with dissimilar results. The presenters covered the spectrum of the pandemic, from the “ugly” in Peru, which has the highest mortality rate in the region, to the “good” in Uruguay, where testing is “winning against COVID-19.” Paradoxically, Chile has both the highest cumulative incidence and the lowest case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the region.

In the social and political turmoil imposed by COVID-19, Clóvis Arns da Cunha, MD, president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and professor at the Federal University of Paraná, pointed out that “fake news [has become] a public health problem in Brazil” and elsewhere.
 

Diagnostics and therapeutics in Latin America

Eleven of the 15 countries with the highest death rate in the world are located in Latin America or the Caribbean. Dr. Arns de Cunha pointed out that tests are hard to come by and inadequate diagnostic testing is a major problem. Latin American countries have not been able to compete with the United States and Europe in purchasing polymerase chain reaction test kits from China and South Korea. The test is the best diagnostic tool in the first week of symptoms, but its scale-up has proved to be a challenge in Latin America.

Furthermore, the most sensitive serological markers, CLIA and ECLIA, which perform best after 2 weeks of symptom onset, are not widely available in Latin America where many patients do not have access to the public health system. The detection of silent hypoxemia in symptomatic patients with COVID-19 can save lives; hence, Arns da Cunha praised the program that distributed 100,000 digital oximeters to hundreds of cities in Brazil, targeting vulnerable populations.
 

The COVID-19 experience in Japan

Takuya Yamagishi, MD, PhD, chief of the Antimicrobial Resistance Research Center at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan, played an instrumental role in the epidemiological investigation that took place on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in February 2020. That COVID-19 outbreak is the largest disease outbreak involving a cruise ship to date, with 712 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 13 deaths.

The ship-based quarantine prompted a massive public health response with unique challenges. In those early days, investigators uncovered important facts about COVID-19 epidemiology, generating hot debates regarding the public health strategy at the time. Notably, the majority of asymptomatically infected persons remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection, transmission from asymptomatic cases was almost as likely as transmission from symptomatic cases, and isolation of passengers in their cabins prevented inter-cabin transmission but not intra-cabin transmission.
 

Swift response in Asia Pacific region

Infectious-disease experts from Taiwan, Singapore, and Australia, who have been at the forefront of clinical care, research, and policy-making, spoke about their experiences.

Taiwan was one of the first countries to adopt a swift response to COVID-19, shortly after they recognized an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in China and long before the WHO declared a public health emergency, said Ping-Ing Lee, MD, PhD, from the National Taiwan University Children’s Hospital.

The country began onboard health checks on flights from Wuhan as early as Dec. 31, 2019. Dr. Lee attributed Taiwan’s success in prevention and control of COVID-19 to the rigorous use of face masks and environmental disinfection procedures. Regarding the country’s antilockdown stance, he said, “Lockdown may be effective; however, it is associated with a tremendous economic loss.”

In his presentation on remdesivir vs corticosteroids, David Lye, MBBS, said, “I think remdesivir as an antiviral seems to work well given early, but steroids will need to be studied further in terms of its conflicting evidence in multiple well-designed RCTs as well as [their] potential side effects.” He is director of the Infectious Disease Research and Training Office, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore.

Allen C. Cheng, MBBS, PhD, of Monash University in Melbourne, noted that “control is possible. We seemed to have controlled this twice at the moment with fairly draconian action, but every day does matter.”
 

China past the first wave

China has already passed the first wave, explained Lei Zhou, MD, of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, but there are still some small-scale resurgences. So far a total of four waves have been identified. She also mentioned that contact tracing is intense and highlighted the case of Xinfadi Market in Beijing, the site of an outbreak in June 2020.

Gui-Qiang Wang, MD, from the Department of Infectious Disease, Peking University First Hospital, emphasized the importance of a chest CT for the diagnosis of COVID-19. “In the early stage of the disease, patients may not show any symptoms; however, on CT scan you can see pneumonia. Also, early intervention of high-risk groups and monitoring of warning indicators for disease progression is extremely important,” he said.

“Early antiviral therapy is expected to stop progression, but still needs evaluation,” he said. “Convalescent plasma is safe and effective, but its source is limited; steroid therapy needs to explore appropriate population and timing; and thymosin α is safe, and its effect on outcomes needs large-sample clinical trial.”

Time to Call for an ‘Arab CDC?’

The eastern Mediterranean is geographically, politically, economically, and religiously a very distinct and sensitive region, and “COVID-19 is an added insult to this already frail region of the world,” said Zaid Haddadin, MD, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tenn.

Poor healthcare and poor public health services are a consequence of weak and fragile governments and infrastructure, the result of war and regional conflicts in many countries. Millions of war refugees live in camps with high population densities and shared facilities, which makes social distancing and community mitigation very challenging. Moreover, the culture includes frequent large social gatherings. Millions of pilgrims visit holy sites in different cities in these countries. There is also movement due to trade and tourism. Travel restrictions are challenging, and there is limited comprehension of precautionary measures.

Najwa Khuri-Bulos, professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at the University of Jordan, was part of a task force headed by the country’s Ministry of Health. A lockdown was implemented, which helped flatten the curve, but the loosening of restrictions has led to a recent increase in cases. She said, “No country can succeed in controlling spread without the regional collaboration. Perhaps it is time to adopt the call for an Arab CDC.”
 

Africa is “not out of the woods yet”

The Africa CDC has three key pillars as the foundation for their COVID-19 strategy: preventing transmission, preventing deaths, and preventing social harm, according to Raji Tajudeen, MBBS, FWACP, MPH, head of the agency’s Public Health Institutes and Research Division. Africa, with 1.5 million cases of COVID-19, accounts for 5% of global cases. With a recovery rate of 83% and a case fatality rate of 2.4%, the African continent has fared much better than the rest of the world. “Significant improvements have been made, but we are not out of the woods yet,” he cautioned.

Richard Lessells, PhD, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal, agreed. “Unfortunately, South Africa has not been spared from the worst effects of this pandemic despite what you might read in the press and scientific coverage.” He added, “Over 50% of cases and up to two thirds of the deaths in the African region are coming from South Africa.” A bigger challenge for South Africa has been maintaining essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially since it is also at the heart of the HIV pandemic. On the brighter side, HIV itself has not emerged as a risk factor for COVID-19 infection or severe disease in South Africa.

Dimie Ogoina, MBBS, FWACP, president of the Nigerian Infectious Diseases Society, stated that COVID-19 has significantly affected access to healthcare in Nigeria, particularly immunizations and antenatal care. Immunization uptake is likely to have dropped by 50% in the country.
 

Diagnostic pitfalls in COVID-19

Technical errors associated with the SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic pipeline are a major source of variations in diagnosis, explained Jim Huggett, PhD, senior lecturer, analytical microbiology, University of Surrey, Guildford, England. He believes that PCR assays are currently too biased for a single cutoff to be broadly used, and false-positive signals are most likely because of contamination.

Dana Wolf, MD, Clinical Virology Unit, Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center in Israel, presented a large-scale data analysis of more than 133,000 pooled samples. Such a pooling strategy appeared to be highly efficient for a wide range of prevalence rates (<1% to 6%). “Our empirical evidence strongly projects on the feasibility and benefits of pooling in the current pandemic setting, to enhance continued surveillance, control, and community reopening,” she said.

Corine Geurts van Kessel, MD, PhD, Department of Virology, Erasmus University Rotterdam (the Netherlands), discussing antibodies testing for SARS-CoV-2, pointed out that disease severity can affect testing accuracy. “Reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity,” she said.
 

Misinformation in the first digital pandemic

The world is not only facing a devastating pandemic, but also an alarming “infodemic” of misinformation. Between January and March 2020, a new COVID-19–related tweet appeared on Twitter every 45 milliseconds. Müge Çevik, MD, MSc, MRCP, an infectious disease clinician, scientist, and science communicator, said that “the greatest challenge for science communication is reaching the audience.”

People have always been skeptical of science reporting by journalists and would rather have scientists communicate with them directly, she noted. Science communication plays a dual role. “On one hand is the need to promote science to a wide audience in order to inform and educate and inspire the next generation of scientists, and on the other hand there is also a need to engage effectively in public dialogue,” she added. Dr. Çevik and colleagues think that “The responsibility of academics should not end with finding the truth. It should end after communicating it.”
 

Treatment in the ICU

Matteo Bassetti, MD, with the University of Genoa (Italy), who was asked about when to use remdesivir in the intensive care unit and for how long, said, “In the majority of cases, 5 days is probably enough.” However, if there is high viremia, he said, physicians may choose to continue the regimen beyond 5 days. Data show it is important to prescribe this drug for patients with oxygen support in an early phase, within 10 days of the first symptoms, he added. “In the late phase, there is a very limited role for remdesivir, as we know that we are already out of the viremic phase.” He also emphasized that there is no role for hydroxychloroquine or lopinavir-ritonavir.

Breaking the chains of transmission

During the wrap-up session, former US CDC Director Tom Frieden, MD, said, “We’re not even halfway through it” about the pandemic trajectory. “And we have to be very clear that the risk of explosive spread will not end with a vaccine.” He is now president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives.

Different parts of the world will have very different experiences, Dr. Frieden said, noting that Africa, where 4% of the population is older than 65, has a very different risk level than Europe and the United States, where 10%-20% of people are in older age groups.

“We need a one-two punch,” he noted, first preventing spread, and when it does happen, boxing it in. Mask wearing is essential. “States in the US that mandated universal mask-wearing experienced much more rapid declines (in cases) for every 5 days the mandate was in place.”

Michael Ryan, MD, executive director for the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, added, “We need to collectively recommit to winning this game. We know how to break the chains of transmission. We need recommitment to a scientific, societal, and political strategy, and an alliance – a contract – between those entities to try to move us forward.”

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Some medical societies feature sessions at their annual meetings that feel like they’re 24 hours long, yet few have the courage to schedule a session that actually runs all day and all night. But the five societies sponsoring the IDWeek conference had that courage. The first 24 hours of the meeting was devoted to the most pressing infectious-disease crisis of the last 100 years: the COVID-19 pandemic. They called it “COVID-19: Chasing the Sun.”

Dr. Fauci predicts a vaccine answer in mid-November

In the first segment, at 10 am Eastern time, Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, began the day by noting that five of the six companies the US invested in to develop a vaccine are conducting phase 3 trials. He said, “we feel confident that we will have an answer likely in mid-November to the beginning of December as to whether we have a safe and effective vaccine”. He added he was “cautiously optimistic” that “we will have a safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year, which we can begin to distribute as we go into 2021.” He highlighted the COVID-19 Prevention Network website for more information on the trials.

Glaring racial health disparities in U.S.

Some of the most glaring health disparities surrounding COVID-19 in the United States were described by Carlos del Rio, MD, professor of medicine at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. He pointed out that while white people have about 23 cases per 10,000 population, Blacks have about 62 cases per 10,000, and Latinos have 73 cases per 10,000. While whites don’t see a huge jump in cases until age 80, he said, “among Blacks and Latinos you start seeing that huge increase at a younger age. In fact, starting at age 20, you start seeing a major, major change.”

COVID-19 diagnostics

Audrey Odom John, MD, PhD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is working on a new way of diagnosing COVID-19 infection in children by testing their breath. “We’re really taking advantage of a fundamental biological fact, which is that people stink,” she said. Breath shows the health of the body as a whole, “and it’s easy to see how breath volatiles might arise from a respiratory infection.” Testing breath is easy and inexpensive, which makes it particularly attractive as a potential test globally, she said.

Long-term effects of COVID-19

Post-COVID illness threatens to overwhelm the health system in the United States, even if only 1% of the 8 million people who have been infected have some sort of long-term deficit, “which would be a very conservative estimate,” said John O’Horo, MD, MPH, with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. Neurologic dysfunction is going to be a “fairly significant thing to keep an eye on,” he added. Preeti Malani, MD, chief health officer in infectious diseases at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, said the emotional aspects of the illness are “striking” and may be the major long-term effect for most patients.

Challenging cases in COVID-19: Through fire and water

In a case presented to panelists during an afternoon session, a Mexican-born woman, 42, presents to urgent care with fever, dyspnea, dry cough, and pleuritic pain, for over a week. Multiple family members have had recent respiratory illness as well. She is obese, on no medications, was not traveling. She’s a nonsmoker and lives in a multigenerational household in the Mission District of San Francisco. Her heart rate is 116, respiratory rate is 36, and her oxygen saturation on room air is 77%. She is admitted to a local hospital and quickly declines, is intubated and started on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). One day later she is transferred to a hospital for consideration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Panelists were asked a variety of questions about how they would treat this patient. For example, would they continue HCQ? Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, an infectious disease expert from Newport Beach, Calif., answered that she would not continue the HCQ because of lack of evidence and potential harms. Asked whether she would start remdesivir, Dr. Kullar said she would steer her away from that if the patient developed renal failure. Co-moderator Peter Chin-Hong, MD, a medical educator with the University of California, San Francisco, noted that contact tracing will be important as the patient returns to her housing-dense community.
 

In-hospital infection prevention

The CDC acknowledged aerosol spread of COVID-19 this month, but David Weber, MD, MPH, professor in infectious diseases at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, “this does not change anything we need to do in the hospital,” as long as protective pandemic protocols continue to be followed.

There is no evidence, he noted, that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted far enough that a hospitalized patient could infect people in other rooms or corridors or floors. Opening windows in COVID-19 patients’ rooms is “not an option,” he said, and could be harmful as fungal elements in outside air may introduce new pathogens. The degree to which improved ventilation systems reduce transmission has not been identified and studies are needed to look at that, he said.
 

Preventing COVID transmission in the community

Mary-Margaret Fill, MD, deputy state epidemiologist in Tennessee, highlighted COVID-19’s spread in prisons. As of mid-October, she said, there are more than 147,000 cases among the U.S. prison population and there have been 1,246 deaths. This translates to a case rate of about 9800 cases per 100,000 people, she said, “double the highest case rate for any state in the country and over three times greater than our national case rate of about 2,500 cases per 100,000 persons.”

Testing varies widely, she noted. For instance, some states test only new prisoners, and some test only when they are symptomatic. One of the strategies to fight this spread is having staff, who go in and out of the community, be assigned to work with only certain groups at a prison. Another is widespread testing of all prisoners. And when prisoners have to leave the prison for care or court dates, a third strategy would be quarantining them upon their return.
 

COVID-19 vaccines

As the session stretched into the evening in the United States, Mary Marovich, MD, director of vaccine research, AIDS division, with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health, said while each of the government-funded vaccine studies has its own trial, there are standardized objectives for direct comparisons. The studies are being conducted within the same clinical trial networks, and collaborative laboratories apply the same immunoassays and define the infections in the same way. They are all randomized, placebo-controlled trials and all but one have a 30,000-volunteer sample size. She said that while a vaccine is the goal to end the pandemic, monoclonal antibodies, such as those in convalescent plasma, “may serve as a critical bridge.”

The good, the bad, and the ugly during COVID-19 in Latin America

Latin America and the Caribbean are currently the regions hardest hit by COVID-19. Gustavo D. Lopardo, of the Asociacion Panamericana de Infectologia, noted that even before the pandemic Latin America suffered from widespread poverty and inequality. While overcrowding and poverty are determining factors in the spread of the virus, diabetes and obesity – both highly prevalent – are worsening COVID outcomes.

The countries of the region have dealt with asynchronous waves of transmission within their borders by implementing different containment strategies, with dissimilar results. The presenters covered the spectrum of the pandemic, from the “ugly” in Peru, which has the highest mortality rate in the region, to the “good” in Uruguay, where testing is “winning against COVID-19.” Paradoxically, Chile has both the highest cumulative incidence and the lowest case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the region.

In the social and political turmoil imposed by COVID-19, Clóvis Arns da Cunha, MD, president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and professor at the Federal University of Paraná, pointed out that “fake news [has become] a public health problem in Brazil” and elsewhere.
 

Diagnostics and therapeutics in Latin America

Eleven of the 15 countries with the highest death rate in the world are located in Latin America or the Caribbean. Dr. Arns de Cunha pointed out that tests are hard to come by and inadequate diagnostic testing is a major problem. Latin American countries have not been able to compete with the United States and Europe in purchasing polymerase chain reaction test kits from China and South Korea. The test is the best diagnostic tool in the first week of symptoms, but its scale-up has proved to be a challenge in Latin America.

Furthermore, the most sensitive serological markers, CLIA and ECLIA, which perform best after 2 weeks of symptom onset, are not widely available in Latin America where many patients do not have access to the public health system. The detection of silent hypoxemia in symptomatic patients with COVID-19 can save lives; hence, Arns da Cunha praised the program that distributed 100,000 digital oximeters to hundreds of cities in Brazil, targeting vulnerable populations.
 

The COVID-19 experience in Japan

Takuya Yamagishi, MD, PhD, chief of the Antimicrobial Resistance Research Center at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan, played an instrumental role in the epidemiological investigation that took place on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in February 2020. That COVID-19 outbreak is the largest disease outbreak involving a cruise ship to date, with 712 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 13 deaths.

The ship-based quarantine prompted a massive public health response with unique challenges. In those early days, investigators uncovered important facts about COVID-19 epidemiology, generating hot debates regarding the public health strategy at the time. Notably, the majority of asymptomatically infected persons remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection, transmission from asymptomatic cases was almost as likely as transmission from symptomatic cases, and isolation of passengers in their cabins prevented inter-cabin transmission but not intra-cabin transmission.
 

Swift response in Asia Pacific region

Infectious-disease experts from Taiwan, Singapore, and Australia, who have been at the forefront of clinical care, research, and policy-making, spoke about their experiences.

Taiwan was one of the first countries to adopt a swift response to COVID-19, shortly after they recognized an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in China and long before the WHO declared a public health emergency, said Ping-Ing Lee, MD, PhD, from the National Taiwan University Children’s Hospital.

The country began onboard health checks on flights from Wuhan as early as Dec. 31, 2019. Dr. Lee attributed Taiwan’s success in prevention and control of COVID-19 to the rigorous use of face masks and environmental disinfection procedures. Regarding the country’s antilockdown stance, he said, “Lockdown may be effective; however, it is associated with a tremendous economic loss.”

In his presentation on remdesivir vs corticosteroids, David Lye, MBBS, said, “I think remdesivir as an antiviral seems to work well given early, but steroids will need to be studied further in terms of its conflicting evidence in multiple well-designed RCTs as well as [their] potential side effects.” He is director of the Infectious Disease Research and Training Office, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore.

Allen C. Cheng, MBBS, PhD, of Monash University in Melbourne, noted that “control is possible. We seemed to have controlled this twice at the moment with fairly draconian action, but every day does matter.”
 

China past the first wave

China has already passed the first wave, explained Lei Zhou, MD, of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, but there are still some small-scale resurgences. So far a total of four waves have been identified. She also mentioned that contact tracing is intense and highlighted the case of Xinfadi Market in Beijing, the site of an outbreak in June 2020.

Gui-Qiang Wang, MD, from the Department of Infectious Disease, Peking University First Hospital, emphasized the importance of a chest CT for the diagnosis of COVID-19. “In the early stage of the disease, patients may not show any symptoms; however, on CT scan you can see pneumonia. Also, early intervention of high-risk groups and monitoring of warning indicators for disease progression is extremely important,” he said.

“Early antiviral therapy is expected to stop progression, but still needs evaluation,” he said. “Convalescent plasma is safe and effective, but its source is limited; steroid therapy needs to explore appropriate population and timing; and thymosin α is safe, and its effect on outcomes needs large-sample clinical trial.”

Time to Call for an ‘Arab CDC?’

The eastern Mediterranean is geographically, politically, economically, and religiously a very distinct and sensitive region, and “COVID-19 is an added insult to this already frail region of the world,” said Zaid Haddadin, MD, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tenn.

Poor healthcare and poor public health services are a consequence of weak and fragile governments and infrastructure, the result of war and regional conflicts in many countries. Millions of war refugees live in camps with high population densities and shared facilities, which makes social distancing and community mitigation very challenging. Moreover, the culture includes frequent large social gatherings. Millions of pilgrims visit holy sites in different cities in these countries. There is also movement due to trade and tourism. Travel restrictions are challenging, and there is limited comprehension of precautionary measures.

Najwa Khuri-Bulos, professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at the University of Jordan, was part of a task force headed by the country’s Ministry of Health. A lockdown was implemented, which helped flatten the curve, but the loosening of restrictions has led to a recent increase in cases. She said, “No country can succeed in controlling spread without the regional collaboration. Perhaps it is time to adopt the call for an Arab CDC.”
 

Africa is “not out of the woods yet”

The Africa CDC has three key pillars as the foundation for their COVID-19 strategy: preventing transmission, preventing deaths, and preventing social harm, according to Raji Tajudeen, MBBS, FWACP, MPH, head of the agency’s Public Health Institutes and Research Division. Africa, with 1.5 million cases of COVID-19, accounts for 5% of global cases. With a recovery rate of 83% and a case fatality rate of 2.4%, the African continent has fared much better than the rest of the world. “Significant improvements have been made, but we are not out of the woods yet,” he cautioned.

Richard Lessells, PhD, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal, agreed. “Unfortunately, South Africa has not been spared from the worst effects of this pandemic despite what you might read in the press and scientific coverage.” He added, “Over 50% of cases and up to two thirds of the deaths in the African region are coming from South Africa.” A bigger challenge for South Africa has been maintaining essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially since it is also at the heart of the HIV pandemic. On the brighter side, HIV itself has not emerged as a risk factor for COVID-19 infection or severe disease in South Africa.

Dimie Ogoina, MBBS, FWACP, president of the Nigerian Infectious Diseases Society, stated that COVID-19 has significantly affected access to healthcare in Nigeria, particularly immunizations and antenatal care. Immunization uptake is likely to have dropped by 50% in the country.
 

Diagnostic pitfalls in COVID-19

Technical errors associated with the SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic pipeline are a major source of variations in diagnosis, explained Jim Huggett, PhD, senior lecturer, analytical microbiology, University of Surrey, Guildford, England. He believes that PCR assays are currently too biased for a single cutoff to be broadly used, and false-positive signals are most likely because of contamination.

Dana Wolf, MD, Clinical Virology Unit, Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center in Israel, presented a large-scale data analysis of more than 133,000 pooled samples. Such a pooling strategy appeared to be highly efficient for a wide range of prevalence rates (<1% to 6%). “Our empirical evidence strongly projects on the feasibility and benefits of pooling in the current pandemic setting, to enhance continued surveillance, control, and community reopening,” she said.

Corine Geurts van Kessel, MD, PhD, Department of Virology, Erasmus University Rotterdam (the Netherlands), discussing antibodies testing for SARS-CoV-2, pointed out that disease severity can affect testing accuracy. “Reinfection cases tell us that we cannot rely on immunity acquired by natural infection to confer herd immunity,” she said.
 

Misinformation in the first digital pandemic

The world is not only facing a devastating pandemic, but also an alarming “infodemic” of misinformation. Between January and March 2020, a new COVID-19–related tweet appeared on Twitter every 45 milliseconds. Müge Çevik, MD, MSc, MRCP, an infectious disease clinician, scientist, and science communicator, said that “the greatest challenge for science communication is reaching the audience.”

People have always been skeptical of science reporting by journalists and would rather have scientists communicate with them directly, she noted. Science communication plays a dual role. “On one hand is the need to promote science to a wide audience in order to inform and educate and inspire the next generation of scientists, and on the other hand there is also a need to engage effectively in public dialogue,” she added. Dr. Çevik and colleagues think that “The responsibility of academics should not end with finding the truth. It should end after communicating it.”
 

Treatment in the ICU

Matteo Bassetti, MD, with the University of Genoa (Italy), who was asked about when to use remdesivir in the intensive care unit and for how long, said, “In the majority of cases, 5 days is probably enough.” However, if there is high viremia, he said, physicians may choose to continue the regimen beyond 5 days. Data show it is important to prescribe this drug for patients with oxygen support in an early phase, within 10 days of the first symptoms, he added. “In the late phase, there is a very limited role for remdesivir, as we know that we are already out of the viremic phase.” He also emphasized that there is no role for hydroxychloroquine or lopinavir-ritonavir.

Breaking the chains of transmission

During the wrap-up session, former US CDC Director Tom Frieden, MD, said, “We’re not even halfway through it” about the pandemic trajectory. “And we have to be very clear that the risk of explosive spread will not end with a vaccine.” He is now president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives.

Different parts of the world will have very different experiences, Dr. Frieden said, noting that Africa, where 4% of the population is older than 65, has a very different risk level than Europe and the United States, where 10%-20% of people are in older age groups.

“We need a one-two punch,” he noted, first preventing spread, and when it does happen, boxing it in. Mask wearing is essential. “States in the US that mandated universal mask-wearing experienced much more rapid declines (in cases) for every 5 days the mandate was in place.”

Michael Ryan, MD, executive director for the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, added, “We need to collectively recommit to winning this game. We know how to break the chains of transmission. We need recommitment to a scientific, societal, and political strategy, and an alliance – a contract – between those entities to try to move us forward.”

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Although the efficacy of two pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimens containing differing prodrug formulations of tenofovir are virtually identical, the balance between benefit and risk tips in favor of the combination using the older formulation, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), a pharmacology researcher said.

An analysis of the pharmacologic profiles of TDF plus emtricitabine (FTC; Truvada and generic) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) plus FTC (Descovy) shows that the risk of decreased bone mineral density and renal toxicity with TDF are significantly lower than those of weight gain and related metabolic and cardiovascular problems associated with the newer tenofovir formulation TAF, according to pharmacology research fellow Andrew Hill, MD, PhD, from the University of Liverpool (England).

“I think when we’re comparing these two drugs overall, we have a clear benefit/risk, and we need to take both of these potential toxicities seriously, “ he said in an online presentation during IDWeek 2020, an annual scientific meeting on infectious diseases held virtually this year.

“But in my view, treating women – Black women – with TAF/FTC is a bad thing,” he continued. “I think it’s going lead to more harm, more myocardial infarctions, more cases of diabetes, and potentially more adverse birth outcomes, and I think that is a risk that is not worth taking, given that the apparent benefit in terms of bone mineral density and renal markers is a hypothesis at best, and is not translated into hard clinical endpoints.”
 

Adverse event profiles

Dr. Hill compared the side effect profiles of the two agents when used both in antiretroviral therapy (ART) in combination the integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (DTG; Tivicay), and in PrEP.

World Health Organization guidelines for first-line ART recommend the use of TDF/FTC/DTG, reserving TAF plus lamivudine (3TC) and DTG for use in special circumstances only, Dr. Hill noted.

He pointed to a pooled analysis of data from eight randomized, controlled trials of treatment-naive people living with HIV who started on ART from 2003 to 2015. The authors found that demographic factors associated with weight gain included lower CD4 cell counter, higher levels of HIV type 1 RNA, no injection drug use, female sex, and Black race.

They also found that, among nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, TAF was associated with more weight gain than TDF, abacavir, or zidovudine.

“This pattern is seen consistently across studies both of pre-exposure prophylaxis or treatment comparing tenofovir with either TAF or other nucleoside analogs,” he said.

The greater weight gain with TAF versus TDF was seen in both treatment trials and in the DISCOVER PrEP trial.

In addition, in a crossover trial conducted in Germany, patients who switched from TDF to TAF had an approximately 2 kg increase in body weight.

TAF has also been associated with higher grade 3 or 4 glucose and LDL cholesterol than TDF in clinical trials for the treatment of hepatitis B infections, and with higher LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol levels as well as diabetes in patients treated with the drugs in combination in the EMERALD HIV trial.

Clinical trials also tend to underestimate the real-world population of persons at highest risk for adverse events from TAF, Dr. Hill said, noting that the percentage of Black women in phase 3 trials for dolutegravir was 9%, compared with 42% among persons infected with HIV worldwide. The respective percentages for Black men are 16% versus 30%. These differences are similar across clinical trial programs for other ART agents.

“Generally, it’s women and Black people who seem to be at greatest risk for safety issues,” he said.

In the ADVANCE trial comparing TAF/FTC/DTG with TDF/FTC/DTG and a control arm of TDF, FTC and efavirenz, the mean change in weight among men after 3 years on the TAF-based regimen was a gain of 7.2 kg (15.9 lbs), compared with 5.5 kg (12 lbs) with TDF, and 2.6 kg (5.7 lbs) with the efavirenz-containing regimen.

In women enrolled in the same trial, the respective mean weight gains were 12.3 kg (27 lbs), 7.4 kg (16.3 lbs), and 5.5 kg (12 lbs).

“All of our analyses so far have shown that the weight continues to go up. We’re actually seeing people doubling in their body weight. We’ve seen some women come into clinic and their doctors don’t even recognize them because they’ve put on so much weight,” he said.

In women, most of the gain in weight occurs as limb or trunk fat, with a predominance of visceral fat.

People taking TAF in the trial were also at significantly greater risk for developing the metabolic syndrome, and at week 96, 27% of women on TAF/FTC/DTG had treatment-emergent obesity, compared with 17% for those on TDF/FTC/DTG and 11% for those on TDF/FTC/EFV. In men, the respective 96-week rates of treatment-emergent obesity were 7%, 3%, and 2%.

Clinical obesity itself is a risk factor for obstetric complications and birth outcomes, Alzheimer’s disease, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension and cancer, and an average 4-year reduction in life expectancy, Dr. Hill said. “I think it’s actually very unlikely that the [World Health Organization] guidelines will now change and allow the widespread use of TAF/FTC in combination with integrase inhibitors worldwide given these potential implications.”
 

Modern times

The bad rap that TDF gets for its alleged effects on bone mineral density and kidneys comes from studies where the drug was given in a boosted regimen that can amplify tenofovir toxicities, Dr. Hill said.

He noted that data from Gilead Sciences shows through 7 years of therapy in previously ART-naive patients, the combination of TDF/3TC/EFV showed sustained durable efficacy, no discontinuations to renal adverse effects, and no evidence of clinically relevant bone effects.

“I think we need to be very careful when we look at tenofovir and TAF. We need to look at the more modern way that these drugs are used, which is not with pharmacokinetic boosters anymore, and in that situation the toxicity profile of tenofovir/3TC – the original TDF – is very favorable,” he said.

Robert Goldstein, MD, PhD, an infectious disease specialist and medical director of the transgender health program at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who comoderated the session where Dr. Hill presented his data, said that his clinical experience mirrors the pharmacokinetic findings.

“I certainly have strong feelings about the use of TDF in pre-exposure prophylaxis,” he said in an interview. “TDF is an effective and safe formulation of tenofovir to be used in pre-exposure prophylaxis, and one that we have more experience with. It’s the formulation of tenofovir that I use for all of my patients who are on pre-exposure prophylaxis, and I think it is the most cost-effective.’

No funding source was reported. Andrew Hill consults for Tibotec on clinical trial programs for darunavir, etravirine, and rilpivirine. Dr. Goldstein reported having no relevant disclosures.

Although the efficacy of two pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimens containing differing prodrug formulations of tenofovir are virtually identical, the balance between benefit and risk tips in favor of the combination using the older formulation, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), a pharmacology researcher said.

An analysis of the pharmacologic profiles of TDF plus emtricitabine (FTC; Truvada and generic) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) plus FTC (Descovy) shows that the risk of decreased bone mineral density and renal toxicity with TDF are significantly lower than those of weight gain and related metabolic and cardiovascular problems associated with the newer tenofovir formulation TAF, according to pharmacology research fellow Andrew Hill, MD, PhD, from the University of Liverpool (England).

“I think when we’re comparing these two drugs overall, we have a clear benefit/risk, and we need to take both of these potential toxicities seriously, “ he said in an online presentation during IDWeek 2020, an annual scientific meeting on infectious diseases held virtually this year.

“But in my view, treating women – Black women – with TAF/FTC is a bad thing,” he continued. “I think it’s going lead to more harm, more myocardial infarctions, more cases of diabetes, and potentially more adverse birth outcomes, and I think that is a risk that is not worth taking, given that the apparent benefit in terms of bone mineral density and renal markers is a hypothesis at best, and is not translated into hard clinical endpoints.”
 

Adverse event profiles

Dr. Hill compared the side effect profiles of the two agents when used both in antiretroviral therapy (ART) in combination the integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (DTG; Tivicay), and in PrEP.

World Health Organization guidelines for first-line ART recommend the use of TDF/FTC/DTG, reserving TAF plus lamivudine (3TC) and DTG for use in special circumstances only, Dr. Hill noted.

He pointed to a pooled analysis of data from eight randomized, controlled trials of treatment-naive people living with HIV who started on ART from 2003 to 2015. The authors found that demographic factors associated with weight gain included lower CD4 cell counter, higher levels of HIV type 1 RNA, no injection drug use, female sex, and Black race.

They also found that, among nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, TAF was associated with more weight gain than TDF, abacavir, or zidovudine.

“This pattern is seen consistently across studies both of pre-exposure prophylaxis or treatment comparing tenofovir with either TAF or other nucleoside analogs,” he said.

The greater weight gain with TAF versus TDF was seen in both treatment trials and in the DISCOVER PrEP trial.

In addition, in a crossover trial conducted in Germany, patients who switched from TDF to TAF had an approximately 2 kg increase in body weight.

TAF has also been associated with higher grade 3 or 4 glucose and LDL cholesterol than TDF in clinical trials for the treatment of hepatitis B infections, and with higher LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol levels as well as diabetes in patients treated with the drugs in combination in the EMERALD HIV trial.

Clinical trials also tend to underestimate the real-world population of persons at highest risk for adverse events from TAF, Dr. Hill said, noting that the percentage of Black women in phase 3 trials for dolutegravir was 9%, compared with 42% among persons infected with HIV worldwide. The respective percentages for Black men are 16% versus 30%. These differences are similar across clinical trial programs for other ART agents.

“Generally, it’s women and Black people who seem to be at greatest risk for safety issues,” he said.

In the ADVANCE trial comparing TAF/FTC/DTG with TDF/FTC/DTG and a control arm of TDF, FTC and efavirenz, the mean change in weight among men after 3 years on the TAF-based regimen was a gain of 7.2 kg (15.9 lbs), compared with 5.5 kg (12 lbs) with TDF, and 2.6 kg (5.7 lbs) with the efavirenz-containing regimen.

In women enrolled in the same trial, the respective mean weight gains were 12.3 kg (27 lbs), 7.4 kg (16.3 lbs), and 5.5 kg (12 lbs).

“All of our analyses so far have shown that the weight continues to go up. We’re actually seeing people doubling in their body weight. We’ve seen some women come into clinic and their doctors don’t even recognize them because they’ve put on so much weight,” he said.

In women, most of the gain in weight occurs as limb or trunk fat, with a predominance of visceral fat.

People taking TAF in the trial were also at significantly greater risk for developing the metabolic syndrome, and at week 96, 27% of women on TAF/FTC/DTG had treatment-emergent obesity, compared with 17% for those on TDF/FTC/DTG and 11% for those on TDF/FTC/EFV. In men, the respective 96-week rates of treatment-emergent obesity were 7%, 3%, and 2%.

Clinical obesity itself is a risk factor for obstetric complications and birth outcomes, Alzheimer’s disease, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension and cancer, and an average 4-year reduction in life expectancy, Dr. Hill said. “I think it’s actually very unlikely that the [World Health Organization] guidelines will now change and allow the widespread use of TAF/FTC in combination with integrase inhibitors worldwide given these potential implications.”
 

Modern times

The bad rap that TDF gets for its alleged effects on bone mineral density and kidneys comes from studies where the drug was given in a boosted regimen that can amplify tenofovir toxicities, Dr. Hill said.

He noted that data from Gilead Sciences shows through 7 years of therapy in previously ART-naive patients, the combination of TDF/3TC/EFV showed sustained durable efficacy, no discontinuations to renal adverse effects, and no evidence of clinically relevant bone effects.

“I think we need to be very careful when we look at tenofovir and TAF. We need to look at the more modern way that these drugs are used, which is not with pharmacokinetic boosters anymore, and in that situation the toxicity profile of tenofovir/3TC – the original TDF – is very favorable,” he said.

Robert Goldstein, MD, PhD, an infectious disease specialist and medical director of the transgender health program at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who comoderated the session where Dr. Hill presented his data, said that his clinical experience mirrors the pharmacokinetic findings.

“I certainly have strong feelings about the use of TDF in pre-exposure prophylaxis,” he said in an interview. “TDF is an effective and safe formulation of tenofovir to be used in pre-exposure prophylaxis, and one that we have more experience with. It’s the formulation of tenofovir that I use for all of my patients who are on pre-exposure prophylaxis, and I think it is the most cost-effective.’

No funding source was reported. Andrew Hill consults for Tibotec on clinical trial programs for darunavir, etravirine, and rilpivirine. Dr. Goldstein reported having no relevant disclosures.

Although the efficacy of two pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimens containing differing prodrug formulations of tenofovir are virtually identical, the balance between benefit and risk tips in favor of the combination using the older formulation, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), a pharmacology researcher said.

An analysis of the pharmacologic profiles of TDF plus emtricitabine (FTC; Truvada and generic) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) plus FTC (Descovy) shows that the risk of decreased bone mineral density and renal toxicity with TDF are significantly lower than those of weight gain and related metabolic and cardiovascular problems associated with the newer tenofovir formulation TAF, according to pharmacology research fellow Andrew Hill, MD, PhD, from the University of Liverpool (England).

“I think when we’re comparing these two drugs overall, we have a clear benefit/risk, and we need to take both of these potential toxicities seriously, “ he said in an online presentation during IDWeek 2020, an annual scientific meeting on infectious diseases held virtually this year.

“But in my view, treating women – Black women – with TAF/FTC is a bad thing,” he continued. “I think it’s going lead to more harm, more myocardial infarctions, more cases of diabetes, and potentially more adverse birth outcomes, and I think that is a risk that is not worth taking, given that the apparent benefit in terms of bone mineral density and renal markers is a hypothesis at best, and is not translated into hard clinical endpoints.”
 

Adverse event profiles

Dr. Hill compared the side effect profiles of the two agents when used both in antiretroviral therapy (ART) in combination the integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (DTG; Tivicay), and in PrEP.

World Health Organization guidelines for first-line ART recommend the use of TDF/FTC/DTG, reserving TAF plus lamivudine (3TC) and DTG for use in special circumstances only, Dr. Hill noted.

He pointed to a pooled analysis of data from eight randomized, controlled trials of treatment-naive people living with HIV who started on ART from 2003 to 2015. The authors found that demographic factors associated with weight gain included lower CD4 cell counter, higher levels of HIV type 1 RNA, no injection drug use, female sex, and Black race.

They also found that, among nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, TAF was associated with more weight gain than TDF, abacavir, or zidovudine.

“This pattern is seen consistently across studies both of pre-exposure prophylaxis or treatment comparing tenofovir with either TAF or other nucleoside analogs,” he said.

The greater weight gain with TAF versus TDF was seen in both treatment trials and in the DISCOVER PrEP trial.

In addition, in a crossover trial conducted in Germany, patients who switched from TDF to TAF had an approximately 2 kg increase in body weight.

TAF has also been associated with higher grade 3 or 4 glucose and LDL cholesterol than TDF in clinical trials for the treatment of hepatitis B infections, and with higher LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol levels as well as diabetes in patients treated with the drugs in combination in the EMERALD HIV trial.

Clinical trials also tend to underestimate the real-world population of persons at highest risk for adverse events from TAF, Dr. Hill said, noting that the percentage of Black women in phase 3 trials for dolutegravir was 9%, compared with 42% among persons infected with HIV worldwide. The respective percentages for Black men are 16% versus 30%. These differences are similar across clinical trial programs for other ART agents.

“Generally, it’s women and Black people who seem to be at greatest risk for safety issues,” he said.

In the ADVANCE trial comparing TAF/FTC/DTG with TDF/FTC/DTG and a control arm of TDF, FTC and efavirenz, the mean change in weight among men after 3 years on the TAF-based regimen was a gain of 7.2 kg (15.9 lbs), compared with 5.5 kg (12 lbs) with TDF, and 2.6 kg (5.7 lbs) with the efavirenz-containing regimen.

In women enrolled in the same trial, the respective mean weight gains were 12.3 kg (27 lbs), 7.4 kg (16.3 lbs), and 5.5 kg (12 lbs).

“All of our analyses so far have shown that the weight continues to go up. We’re actually seeing people doubling in their body weight. We’ve seen some women come into clinic and their doctors don’t even recognize them because they’ve put on so much weight,” he said.

In women, most of the gain in weight occurs as limb or trunk fat, with a predominance of visceral fat.

People taking TAF in the trial were also at significantly greater risk for developing the metabolic syndrome, and at week 96, 27% of women on TAF/FTC/DTG had treatment-emergent obesity, compared with 17% for those on TDF/FTC/DTG and 11% for those on TDF/FTC/EFV. In men, the respective 96-week rates of treatment-emergent obesity were 7%, 3%, and 2%.

Clinical obesity itself is a risk factor for obstetric complications and birth outcomes, Alzheimer’s disease, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension and cancer, and an average 4-year reduction in life expectancy, Dr. Hill said. “I think it’s actually very unlikely that the [World Health Organization] guidelines will now change and allow the widespread use of TAF/FTC in combination with integrase inhibitors worldwide given these potential implications.”
 

Modern times

The bad rap that TDF gets for its alleged effects on bone mineral density and kidneys comes from studies where the drug was given in a boosted regimen that can amplify tenofovir toxicities, Dr. Hill said.

He noted that data from Gilead Sciences shows through 7 years of therapy in previously ART-naive patients, the combination of TDF/3TC/EFV showed sustained durable efficacy, no discontinuations to renal adverse effects, and no evidence of clinically relevant bone effects.

“I think we need to be very careful when we look at tenofovir and TAF. We need to look at the more modern way that these drugs are used, which is not with pharmacokinetic boosters anymore, and in that situation the toxicity profile of tenofovir/3TC – the original TDF – is very favorable,” he said.

Robert Goldstein, MD, PhD, an infectious disease specialist and medical director of the transgender health program at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who comoderated the session where Dr. Hill presented his data, said that his clinical experience mirrors the pharmacokinetic findings.

“I certainly have strong feelings about the use of TDF in pre-exposure prophylaxis,” he said in an interview. “TDF is an effective and safe formulation of tenofovir to be used in pre-exposure prophylaxis, and one that we have more experience with. It’s the formulation of tenofovir that I use for all of my patients who are on pre-exposure prophylaxis, and I think it is the most cost-effective.’

No funding source was reported. Andrew Hill consults for Tibotec on clinical trial programs for darunavir, etravirine, and rilpivirine. Dr. Goldstein reported having no relevant disclosures.

COVID-19 has had a huge impact on every aspect of physicians’ medical practice, incomes, and business. Although this will probably not end soon, there are some key tax strategies that can help your financial position if you take some important actions by the end of the year.

Some of the ways in which physicians were hard hit include:

• Physicians who are self-employed are facing increased costs for personal protective equipment, cleaning protocols, and new telehealth infrastructure. Many are also facing staffing shortages as employees fall to part-time work or take time off work to care for family members.
• Even physicians working for large hospitals are not isolated from the financial impact of the virus. A recent survey conducted by Medscape concluded that over 60% of physicians in the United States have experienced a decrease in income since the start of the pandemic.
• Saving and investing have been affected: Physicians may expect to see that companies in which they are invested are cutting dividends. Interest rates (CDs, bonds) are lower, and capital gains distributions are reduced this year. Overall, that makes for a fairly grim financial picture.

While taxable income this year has mostly declined, the applicable tax rates overall are low. However, federal, state, and local budget deficits have been skyrocketing owing to the demands of the pandemic. That means, in all likelihood, there will be tax increases in the coming years to cover spending. However, this year’s financial challenges could lend themselves to a unique tax planning scenario that could potentially benefit physicians as they make long-term plans for their investments.

Given these circumstances, these 12 tips can help you to lessen your tax bite this tax season. Many of these tips entail actions that you need to take before Dec. 31, 2020.
 

1. Coronavirus stimulus rebates

If you have significantly depressed income this year or have lost your job, you may find that you qualify for an Economic Impact Payment, a refundable tax credit on the 2020 tax return. The credit is $1,200 for individuals or $2,400 for joint filers, plus an additional $500 for each qualifying child aged 16 years or younger. You begin to phase out of the credit at an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers. People who had AGI below these thresholds in 2019 already would have received the credit in advance, but those who now find themselves qualifying will receive the credit when they file their 2020 tax return. No action is needed on your part; your tax preparer will calculate whether you are eligible for the credit when filing your return.

2. Look to accelerate income at lower brackets

With reduced earned income, many physicians will find themselves in significantly lower tax brackets this year. Once you fall below $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for joint filers, you no longer trigger two additional surcharge taxes. The first is the additional Medicare tax, which is a further 0.9% applied to earned income above those thresholds, on top of ordinary income tax brackets. The second is the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), which is an additional 3.8% applied to your investment income on top of capital gains tax brackets.

If you are someone to whom the additional Medicare tax or NIIT no longer applies for 2020, you might consider generating income this year in order to realize the lower tax rates. You could consider selling highly appreciated investments in your taxable portfolio and reinvest the proceeds by repurchasing the same securities, thereby receiving a step-up in cost basis. Remember, when you go to sell securities in retirement, you are only taxed on the gain on the security over your cost basis. By bringing the cost basis up to today’s fair market value, you could be greatly reducing the future tax applied on a sale.

For those with IRA or inherited IRA accounts who also have required minimum distributions (RMDs), you might consider making voluntary withdrawals this year and then reinvesting the proceeds into a savings or taxable account for when you need it. Keep in mind that under the CARES Act, you are no longer required to take RMDs for 2020. However, this action would help avoid being forced to withdraw the amount when you may be at a higher tax bracket. You would need to do this before Dec. 31.
 

3. Build Roth assets strategies

With reduced incomes and lower marginal tax rates applying to the last dollar of income this year, physicians should carefully consider how to take advantage of current tax rates by building Roth assets. There are a few strategies, including switching 401(k) or 457 contributions from pretax to Roth or performing a backdoor Roth IRA contribution. However, neither is as powerful as converting IRA assets to Roth assets because there is no restriction on conversion amount or income cutoffs.

The goal is to convert enough assets to fill up lower applicable marginal tax brackets while avoiding tax surcharges, where possible. Roth IRA conversions can get you in trouble if you don’t know what to expect, so it’s best to work with a financial advisor or tax professional to give you guidance. For example, Roth conversions can trigger some tax surprises, such as the phaseout for the 199A qualified business income deduction, increased taxation on your Social Security benefits, or higher Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount surcharges on Medicare Part B and Part D premiums.

Bear in mind that Roth conversions generate taxable income and cannot be undone once completed. However, paying the lower marginal tax rate today may be a big win when RMDs could push physicians into tax brackets as high as or higher than during their working years.
 

4. Coronavirus-related distributions

New this year is a penalty-free way to withdraw qualified retirement plan funds for those who are not yet eligible to make penalty-free withdrawals.

Congress introduced the Coronavirus-Related Distribution under the CARES Act. It allows individuals who have been affected by the pandemic to withdraw up to $100,000 before Dec. 31, 2020, without paying the 10% early withdrawal penalty. If you are considering an early retirement because of the pandemic, it may make sense to take this withdrawal while the option lasts and keep the cash available to help fund the gap before the remainder of your retirement plan assets are available penalty free. Keep in mind that this withdrawal generates taxable ordinary income, even though the early withdrawal penalty does not apply. Taking this withdrawal can boost your taxable income bracket, so calculate carefully before you do this.
 

5. Charitable donations for 2020

There is no shortage of people in need owing to the pandemic. For those who continue to be charitable-minded, a decrease in income may mean you have more opportunity for your regularly recurring charitable donations to decrease your taxes this year. Normally, charitable donations for itemizers are limited to 60% of AGI. However, the CARES Act increased the charitable deduction limit to 100% of AGI for 2020. Even those who claim the standard deduction can take advantage of a new “above-the-line” deduction worth $300 for individuals and $600 for joint filers by making qualified cash donations in 2020. Take special note that the contributions do not apply to donor-advised funds or nonoperating private foundations.

6. Noncash charitable donations

Many physicians are working longer and harder than ever, and for many, that means vacation plans have been placed on hold for the remainder of the year. Don’t let your paid-time-off days go to waste! The IRS now permits leave-based donation programs, which allow employers to make deductible charitable donations for the relief of victims of the COVID-19 pandemic on the basis of the value of the sick, vacation, or personal leave that employees voluntarily forgo. The value of the donation will not be treated as compensation for the employee and will be free of any otherwise applicable Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes, and the employer can deduct the donation as ordinary and necessary business expenses if they meet certain requirements.

7. Claiming 2020 losses on prior tax returns

For self-employed physicians, a wealth of tax planning strategies are available. One of the most significant may be the new provisions under the CARES Act that allow 100% of net operating losses (NOLs) for 3 calendar years of losses – namely 2018, 2019, and 2020 – to be carried back to the prior 5 tax years. Using these NOLs, you may be able to claim a refund for tax returns from prior tax years when there was otherwise a limit on NOLs at 80% of taxable income. If you think this applies to you, it’s wise to meet with your accountant or financial professional to discuss this.

8. Delay payroll taxes where possible

For physicians with employees looking for some cash flow relief, a new payroll tax deferral is available to you this year. Under the CARES Act, employers can delay payment of their 2020 employer payroll tax, namely the 6.2% Social Security tax, with 50% not due until Dec. 31, 2021, and the remainder due Dec. 31, 2022. The deferral will not incur any interest or penalties and is also available to those who are self-employed.

On top of that, a new payroll tax credit was created under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act. Eligible employers can receive this tax credit for the amount of wages they pay to eligible employees who are taking pandemic-related paid family leave or paid sick leave this year. The credit is also available to those who are self-employed. If you think this credit may be applicable to you, it’s worth speaking with your tax preparer about it.
 

9. Increased business property deductions

The nature of many physician business operations has drastically changed this year. For physicians who already have invested in and implemented new telehealth infrastructure, this can create valuable tax deductions to offset their ordinary income. Businesses may take 100% bonus depreciation on the cost of qualified property both acquired and placed in service after Sept. 27, 2017, and before Jan. 1, 2023. In general, during the last quarter of the year, you should look to decelerate business purchases until after Jan. 1, 2021, to get a deduction in 2021 at a higher marginal tax bracket.

10. Switch to cash accounting instead of accrual accounting

With higher expenses and lower profits, some large practice groups may take a second look to see whether they qualify to switch to cash accounting from accrual accounting to defer taxes. This rule change was adopted back in 2017 to allow small-business taxpayers with average annual gross receipts of $25 million or less in the prior 3 years to use the cash method of accounting. Ultimately, this switch should allow practices to owe the IRS money only after invoices were paid.

11. Physicians looking to sell their unprofitable practices

For physicians looking to make a quick exit from their practice in response to the pandemic, there is some tax relief in the event of a sale at a loss. Certain business owners who sell failed businesses will be able to use up to $50,000 of net losses as individuals or $100,000 as joint filers from the sale to offset ordinary income, current or future, under Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 1244. Remember that ordinary income tax rates are much higher than capital gains rates, so you could see some tax relief through a sale. The provision covers shareholders of domestic small-business corporations, both C or S corporations, but not partnerships. You would have to sell the business before Dec. 31 to get this deduction in 2020.

12. Physicians looking to sell their profitable practices

Even self-employed physicians who have managed to maintain profitable practices may be looking for early retirement after the exhaustion of the pandemic. If you own stock in a C corporation engaged in an active trade or business that has not had assets of more than $50 million at any time, you can take advantage of the IRC Section 1202 exemption. Section 1202 provides an exclusion from gain from the sale of stock of either $10 million or 10 times the adjusted basis of the stock, owned at least 5 years, in corporations regarded as “qualified small businesses.” This means you may be able to sell your practice at a gain with a handsome tax shield. Again, to get this tax benefit for April’s tax return, you’d have to engage in this activity before year end.

Regardless of whether the pandemic has placed financial constraints on you this year, tax-savvy opportunities are available to capitalize on your reduced income and lower tax rates. It’s always important to keep in mind not just your taxes in any one given year, but your lifetime tax obligations. Financial advisors and tax planners can perform multiyear tax calculations and recommend ways to manage your tax bracket and help lower your overall lifetime tax obligations.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

COVID-19 has had a huge impact on every aspect of physicians’ medical practice, incomes, and business. Although this will probably not end soon, there are some key tax strategies that can help your financial position if you take some important actions by the end of the year.

Some of the ways in which physicians were hard hit include:

• Physicians who are self-employed are facing increased costs for personal protective equipment, cleaning protocols, and new telehealth infrastructure. Many are also facing staffing shortages as employees fall to part-time work or take time off work to care for family members.
• Even physicians working for large hospitals are not isolated from the financial impact of the virus. A recent survey conducted by Medscape concluded that over 60% of physicians in the United States have experienced a decrease in income since the start of the pandemic.
• Saving and investing have been affected: Physicians may expect to see that companies in which they are invested are cutting dividends. Interest rates (CDs, bonds) are lower, and capital gains distributions are reduced this year. Overall, that makes for a fairly grim financial picture.

While taxable income this year has mostly declined, the applicable tax rates overall are low. However, federal, state, and local budget deficits have been skyrocketing owing to the demands of the pandemic. That means, in all likelihood, there will be tax increases in the coming years to cover spending. However, this year’s financial challenges could lend themselves to a unique tax planning scenario that could potentially benefit physicians as they make long-term plans for their investments.

Given these circumstances, these 12 tips can help you to lessen your tax bite this tax season. Many of these tips entail actions that you need to take before Dec. 31, 2020.
 

1. Coronavirus stimulus rebates

If you have significantly depressed income this year or have lost your job, you may find that you qualify for an Economic Impact Payment, a refundable tax credit on the 2020 tax return. The credit is $1,200 for individuals or $2,400 for joint filers, plus an additional $500 for each qualifying child aged 16 years or younger. You begin to phase out of the credit at an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers. People who had AGI below these thresholds in 2019 already would have received the credit in advance, but those who now find themselves qualifying will receive the credit when they file their 2020 tax return. No action is needed on your part; your tax preparer will calculate whether you are eligible for the credit when filing your return.

2. Look to accelerate income at lower brackets

With reduced earned income, many physicians will find themselves in significantly lower tax brackets this year. Once you fall below $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for joint filers, you no longer trigger two additional surcharge taxes. The first is the additional Medicare tax, which is a further 0.9% applied to earned income above those thresholds, on top of ordinary income tax brackets. The second is the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), which is an additional 3.8% applied to your investment income on top of capital gains tax brackets.

If you are someone to whom the additional Medicare tax or NIIT no longer applies for 2020, you might consider generating income this year in order to realize the lower tax rates. You could consider selling highly appreciated investments in your taxable portfolio and reinvest the proceeds by repurchasing the same securities, thereby receiving a step-up in cost basis. Remember, when you go to sell securities in retirement, you are only taxed on the gain on the security over your cost basis. By bringing the cost basis up to today’s fair market value, you could be greatly reducing the future tax applied on a sale.

For those with IRA or inherited IRA accounts who also have required minimum distributions (RMDs), you might consider making voluntary withdrawals this year and then reinvesting the proceeds into a savings or taxable account for when you need it. Keep in mind that under the CARES Act, you are no longer required to take RMDs for 2020. However, this action would help avoid being forced to withdraw the amount when you may be at a higher tax bracket. You would need to do this before Dec. 31.
 

3. Build Roth assets strategies

With reduced incomes and lower marginal tax rates applying to the last dollar of income this year, physicians should carefully consider how to take advantage of current tax rates by building Roth assets. There are a few strategies, including switching 401(k) or 457 contributions from pretax to Roth or performing a backdoor Roth IRA contribution. However, neither is as powerful as converting IRA assets to Roth assets because there is no restriction on conversion amount or income cutoffs.

The goal is to convert enough assets to fill up lower applicable marginal tax brackets while avoiding tax surcharges, where possible. Roth IRA conversions can get you in trouble if you don’t know what to expect, so it’s best to work with a financial advisor or tax professional to give you guidance. For example, Roth conversions can trigger some tax surprises, such as the phaseout for the 199A qualified business income deduction, increased taxation on your Social Security benefits, or higher Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount surcharges on Medicare Part B and Part D premiums.

Bear in mind that Roth conversions generate taxable income and cannot be undone once completed. However, paying the lower marginal tax rate today may be a big win when RMDs could push physicians into tax brackets as high as or higher than during their working years.
 

4. Coronavirus-related distributions

New this year is a penalty-free way to withdraw qualified retirement plan funds for those who are not yet eligible to make penalty-free withdrawals.

Congress introduced the Coronavirus-Related Distribution under the CARES Act. It allows individuals who have been affected by the pandemic to withdraw up to $100,000 before Dec. 31, 2020, without paying the 10% early withdrawal penalty. If you are considering an early retirement because of the pandemic, it may make sense to take this withdrawal while the option lasts and keep the cash available to help fund the gap before the remainder of your retirement plan assets are available penalty free. Keep in mind that this withdrawal generates taxable ordinary income, even though the early withdrawal penalty does not apply. Taking this withdrawal can boost your taxable income bracket, so calculate carefully before you do this.
 

5. Charitable donations for 2020

There is no shortage of people in need owing to the pandemic. For those who continue to be charitable-minded, a decrease in income may mean you have more opportunity for your regularly recurring charitable donations to decrease your taxes this year. Normally, charitable donations for itemizers are limited to 60% of AGI. However, the CARES Act increased the charitable deduction limit to 100% of AGI for 2020. Even those who claim the standard deduction can take advantage of a new “above-the-line” deduction worth $300 for individuals and $600 for joint filers by making qualified cash donations in 2020. Take special note that the contributions do not apply to donor-advised funds or nonoperating private foundations.

6. Noncash charitable donations

Many physicians are working longer and harder than ever, and for many, that means vacation plans have been placed on hold for the remainder of the year. Don’t let your paid-time-off days go to waste! The IRS now permits leave-based donation programs, which allow employers to make deductible charitable donations for the relief of victims of the COVID-19 pandemic on the basis of the value of the sick, vacation, or personal leave that employees voluntarily forgo. The value of the donation will not be treated as compensation for the employee and will be free of any otherwise applicable Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes, and the employer can deduct the donation as ordinary and necessary business expenses if they meet certain requirements.

7. Claiming 2020 losses on prior tax returns

For self-employed physicians, a wealth of tax planning strategies are available. One of the most significant may be the new provisions under the CARES Act that allow 100% of net operating losses (NOLs) for 3 calendar years of losses – namely 2018, 2019, and 2020 – to be carried back to the prior 5 tax years. Using these NOLs, you may be able to claim a refund for tax returns from prior tax years when there was otherwise a limit on NOLs at 80% of taxable income. If you think this applies to you, it’s wise to meet with your accountant or financial professional to discuss this.

8. Delay payroll taxes where possible

For physicians with employees looking for some cash flow relief, a new payroll tax deferral is available to you this year. Under the CARES Act, employers can delay payment of their 2020 employer payroll tax, namely the 6.2% Social Security tax, with 50% not due until Dec. 31, 2021, and the remainder due Dec. 31, 2022. The deferral will not incur any interest or penalties and is also available to those who are self-employed.

On top of that, a new payroll tax credit was created under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act. Eligible employers can receive this tax credit for the amount of wages they pay to eligible employees who are taking pandemic-related paid family leave or paid sick leave this year. The credit is also available to those who are self-employed. If you think this credit may be applicable to you, it’s worth speaking with your tax preparer about it.
 

9. Increased business property deductions

The nature of many physician business operations has drastically changed this year. For physicians who already have invested in and implemented new telehealth infrastructure, this can create valuable tax deductions to offset their ordinary income. Businesses may take 100% bonus depreciation on the cost of qualified property both acquired and placed in service after Sept. 27, 2017, and before Jan. 1, 2023. In general, during the last quarter of the year, you should look to decelerate business purchases until after Jan. 1, 2021, to get a deduction in 2021 at a higher marginal tax bracket.

10. Switch to cash accounting instead of accrual accounting

With higher expenses and lower profits, some large practice groups may take a second look to see whether they qualify to switch to cash accounting from accrual accounting to defer taxes. This rule change was adopted back in 2017 to allow small-business taxpayers with average annual gross receipts of $25 million or less in the prior 3 years to use the cash method of accounting. Ultimately, this switch should allow practices to owe the IRS money only after invoices were paid.

11. Physicians looking to sell their unprofitable practices

For physicians looking to make a quick exit from their practice in response to the pandemic, there is some tax relief in the event of a sale at a loss. Certain business owners who sell failed businesses will be able to use up to $50,000 of net losses as individuals or $100,000 as joint filers from the sale to offset ordinary income, current or future, under Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 1244. Remember that ordinary income tax rates are much higher than capital gains rates, so you could see some tax relief through a sale. The provision covers shareholders of domestic small-business corporations, both C or S corporations, but not partnerships. You would have to sell the business before Dec. 31 to get this deduction in 2020.

12. Physicians looking to sell their profitable practices

Even self-employed physicians who have managed to maintain profitable practices may be looking for early retirement after the exhaustion of the pandemic. If you own stock in a C corporation engaged in an active trade or business that has not had assets of more than $50 million at any time, you can take advantage of the IRC Section 1202 exemption. Section 1202 provides an exclusion from gain from the sale of stock of either $10 million or 10 times the adjusted basis of the stock, owned at least 5 years, in corporations regarded as “qualified small businesses.” This means you may be able to sell your practice at a gain with a handsome tax shield. Again, to get this tax benefit for April’s tax return, you’d have to engage in this activity before year end.

Regardless of whether the pandemic has placed financial constraints on you this year, tax-savvy opportunities are available to capitalize on your reduced income and lower tax rates. It’s always important to keep in mind not just your taxes in any one given year, but your lifetime tax obligations. Financial advisors and tax planners can perform multiyear tax calculations and recommend ways to manage your tax bracket and help lower your overall lifetime tax obligations.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

COVID-19 has had a huge impact on every aspect of physicians’ medical practice, incomes, and business. Although this will probably not end soon, there are some key tax strategies that can help your financial position if you take some important actions by the end of the year.

Some of the ways in which physicians were hard hit include:

• Physicians who are self-employed are facing increased costs for personal protective equipment, cleaning protocols, and new telehealth infrastructure. Many are also facing staffing shortages as employees fall to part-time work or take time off work to care for family members.
• Even physicians working for large hospitals are not isolated from the financial impact of the virus. A recent survey conducted by Medscape concluded that over 60% of physicians in the United States have experienced a decrease in income since the start of the pandemic.
• Saving and investing have been affected: Physicians may expect to see that companies in which they are invested are cutting dividends. Interest rates (CDs, bonds) are lower, and capital gains distributions are reduced this year. Overall, that makes for a fairly grim financial picture.

While taxable income this year has mostly declined, the applicable tax rates overall are low. However, federal, state, and local budget deficits have been skyrocketing owing to the demands of the pandemic. That means, in all likelihood, there will be tax increases in the coming years to cover spending. However, this year’s financial challenges could lend themselves to a unique tax planning scenario that could potentially benefit physicians as they make long-term plans for their investments.

Given these circumstances, these 12 tips can help you to lessen your tax bite this tax season. Many of these tips entail actions that you need to take before Dec. 31, 2020.
 

1. Coronavirus stimulus rebates

If you have significantly depressed income this year or have lost your job, you may find that you qualify for an Economic Impact Payment, a refundable tax credit on the 2020 tax return. The credit is $1,200 for individuals or $2,400 for joint filers, plus an additional $500 for each qualifying child aged 16 years or younger. You begin to phase out of the credit at an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers. People who had AGI below these thresholds in 2019 already would have received the credit in advance, but those who now find themselves qualifying will receive the credit when they file their 2020 tax return. No action is needed on your part; your tax preparer will calculate whether you are eligible for the credit when filing your return.

2. Look to accelerate income at lower brackets

With reduced earned income, many physicians will find themselves in significantly lower tax brackets this year. Once you fall below $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for joint filers, you no longer trigger two additional surcharge taxes. The first is the additional Medicare tax, which is a further 0.9% applied to earned income above those thresholds, on top of ordinary income tax brackets. The second is the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), which is an additional 3.8% applied to your investment income on top of capital gains tax brackets.

If you are someone to whom the additional Medicare tax or NIIT no longer applies for 2020, you might consider generating income this year in order to realize the lower tax rates. You could consider selling highly appreciated investments in your taxable portfolio and reinvest the proceeds by repurchasing the same securities, thereby receiving a step-up in cost basis. Remember, when you go to sell securities in retirement, you are only taxed on the gain on the security over your cost basis. By bringing the cost basis up to today’s fair market value, you could be greatly reducing the future tax applied on a sale.

For those with IRA or inherited IRA accounts who also have required minimum distributions (RMDs), you might consider making voluntary withdrawals this year and then reinvesting the proceeds into a savings or taxable account for when you need it. Keep in mind that under the CARES Act, you are no longer required to take RMDs for 2020. However, this action would help avoid being forced to withdraw the amount when you may be at a higher tax bracket. You would need to do this before Dec. 31.
 

3. Build Roth assets strategies

With reduced incomes and lower marginal tax rates applying to the last dollar of income this year, physicians should carefully consider how to take advantage of current tax rates by building Roth assets. There are a few strategies, including switching 401(k) or 457 contributions from pretax to Roth or performing a backdoor Roth IRA contribution. However, neither is as powerful as converting IRA assets to Roth assets because there is no restriction on conversion amount or income cutoffs.

The goal is to convert enough assets to fill up lower applicable marginal tax brackets while avoiding tax surcharges, where possible. Roth IRA conversions can get you in trouble if you don’t know what to expect, so it’s best to work with a financial advisor or tax professional to give you guidance. For example, Roth conversions can trigger some tax surprises, such as the phaseout for the 199A qualified business income deduction, increased taxation on your Social Security benefits, or higher Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount surcharges on Medicare Part B and Part D premiums.

Bear in mind that Roth conversions generate taxable income and cannot be undone once completed. However, paying the lower marginal tax rate today may be a big win when RMDs could push physicians into tax brackets as high as or higher than during their working years.
 

4. Coronavirus-related distributions

New this year is a penalty-free way to withdraw qualified retirement plan funds for those who are not yet eligible to make penalty-free withdrawals.

Congress introduced the Coronavirus-Related Distribution under the CARES Act. It allows individuals who have been affected by the pandemic to withdraw up to $100,000 before Dec. 31, 2020, without paying the 10% early withdrawal penalty. If you are considering an early retirement because of the pandemic, it may make sense to take this withdrawal while the option lasts and keep the cash available to help fund the gap before the remainder of your retirement plan assets are available penalty free. Keep in mind that this withdrawal generates taxable ordinary income, even though the early withdrawal penalty does not apply. Taking this withdrawal can boost your taxable income bracket, so calculate carefully before you do this.
 

5. Charitable donations for 2020

There is no shortage of people in need owing to the pandemic. For those who continue to be charitable-minded, a decrease in income may mean you have more opportunity for your regularly recurring charitable donations to decrease your taxes this year. Normally, charitable donations for itemizers are limited to 60% of AGI. However, the CARES Act increased the charitable deduction limit to 100% of AGI for 2020. Even those who claim the standard deduction can take advantage of a new “above-the-line” deduction worth $300 for individuals and $600 for joint filers by making qualified cash donations in 2020. Take special note that the contributions do not apply to donor-advised funds or nonoperating private foundations.

6. Noncash charitable donations

Many physicians are working longer and harder than ever, and for many, that means vacation plans have been placed on hold for the remainder of the year. Don’t let your paid-time-off days go to waste! The IRS now permits leave-based donation programs, which allow employers to make deductible charitable donations for the relief of victims of the COVID-19 pandemic on the basis of the value of the sick, vacation, or personal leave that employees voluntarily forgo. The value of the donation will not be treated as compensation for the employee and will be free of any otherwise applicable Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes, and the employer can deduct the donation as ordinary and necessary business expenses if they meet certain requirements.

7. Claiming 2020 losses on prior tax returns

For self-employed physicians, a wealth of tax planning strategies are available. One of the most significant may be the new provisions under the CARES Act that allow 100% of net operating losses (NOLs) for 3 calendar years of losses – namely 2018, 2019, and 2020 – to be carried back to the prior 5 tax years. Using these NOLs, you may be able to claim a refund for tax returns from prior tax years when there was otherwise a limit on NOLs at 80% of taxable income. If you think this applies to you, it’s wise to meet with your accountant or financial professional to discuss this.

8. Delay payroll taxes where possible

For physicians with employees looking for some cash flow relief, a new payroll tax deferral is available to you this year. Under the CARES Act, employers can delay payment of their 2020 employer payroll tax, namely the 6.2% Social Security tax, with 50% not due until Dec. 31, 2021, and the remainder due Dec. 31, 2022. The deferral will not incur any interest or penalties and is also available to those who are self-employed.

On top of that, a new payroll tax credit was created under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act. Eligible employers can receive this tax credit for the amount of wages they pay to eligible employees who are taking pandemic-related paid family leave or paid sick leave this year. The credit is also available to those who are self-employed. If you think this credit may be applicable to you, it’s worth speaking with your tax preparer about it.
 

9. Increased business property deductions

The nature of many physician business operations has drastically changed this year. For physicians who already have invested in and implemented new telehealth infrastructure, this can create valuable tax deductions to offset their ordinary income. Businesses may take 100% bonus depreciation on the cost of qualified property both acquired and placed in service after Sept. 27, 2017, and before Jan. 1, 2023. In general, during the last quarter of the year, you should look to decelerate business purchases until after Jan. 1, 2021, to get a deduction in 2021 at a higher marginal tax bracket.

10. Switch to cash accounting instead of accrual accounting

With higher expenses and lower profits, some large practice groups may take a second look to see whether they qualify to switch to cash accounting from accrual accounting to defer taxes. This rule change was adopted back in 2017 to allow small-business taxpayers with average annual gross receipts of $25 million or less in the prior 3 years to use the cash method of accounting. Ultimately, this switch should allow practices to owe the IRS money only after invoices were paid.

11. Physicians looking to sell their unprofitable practices

For physicians looking to make a quick exit from their practice in response to the pandemic, there is some tax relief in the event of a sale at a loss. Certain business owners who sell failed businesses will be able to use up to $50,000 of net losses as individuals or $100,000 as joint filers from the sale to offset ordinary income, current or future, under Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 1244. Remember that ordinary income tax rates are much higher than capital gains rates, so you could see some tax relief through a sale. The provision covers shareholders of domestic small-business corporations, both C or S corporations, but not partnerships. You would have to sell the business before Dec. 31 to get this deduction in 2020.

12. Physicians looking to sell their profitable practices

Even self-employed physicians who have managed to maintain profitable practices may be looking for early retirement after the exhaustion of the pandemic. If you own stock in a C corporation engaged in an active trade or business that has not had assets of more than $50 million at any time, you can take advantage of the IRC Section 1202 exemption. Section 1202 provides an exclusion from gain from the sale of stock of either $10 million or 10 times the adjusted basis of the stock, owned at least 5 years, in corporations regarded as “qualified small businesses.” This means you may be able to sell your practice at a gain with a handsome tax shield. Again, to get this tax benefit for April’s tax return, you’d have to engage in this activity before year end.

Regardless of whether the pandemic has placed financial constraints on you this year, tax-savvy opportunities are available to capitalize on your reduced income and lower tax rates. It’s always important to keep in mind not just your taxes in any one given year, but your lifetime tax obligations. Financial advisors and tax planners can perform multiyear tax calculations and recommend ways to manage your tax bracket and help lower your overall lifetime tax obligations.
 

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

A new scoring system can predict whether COVID-19 patients will require invasive mechanical ventilation, researchers report.

The score uses three variables to predict future risk: heart rate; the ratio of oxygen saturation (SpO₂) to fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂); and a positive troponin I level.

“What excites us is it’s a really benign tool,” said Muhtadi Alnababteh, MD, from the Medstar Washington (D.C.) Hospital Center. “For the first two variables you only need to look at vital signs, no labs or invasive diagnostics.”

“The third part is a simple lab, which is performed universally and can be done in any hospital,” he told this news organization. “We know that even rural hospitals can do this.”

For their retrospective analysis, Dr. Alnababteh and his colleagues assessed 265 adults with confirmed COVID-19 infection who were admitted to a single tertiary care center in March and April. They looked at demographic characteristics, lab results, and clinical and outcome information.

Ultimately, 54 of these patients required invasive mechanical ventilation.

On multiple-regression analysis, the researchers determined that three variables independently predicted the need for invasive mechanical ventilation.

Existing scores evaluated for COVID-19 outcome prediction

The MuLBSTA score can also be used to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

A retrospective evaluation of 163 patients was presented at CHEST 2020 by Jurgena Tusha, MD, from Wayne State University in Detroit.

Patients who survived their illness had a mean MuLBSTA score of 8.67, whereas patients who died had a mean score of 13.60.

The score “correlated significantly with mortality, ventilator support, and length of stay, which may be used to provide guidance to screen patients and make further clinical decisions,” Dr. Tusha said in a press release.

“Further studies are required to validate this study in larger patient cohorts,” she added.

The three-variable scoring system is easier to use than the MuLBSTA, and more specific, said Dr. Alnababteh.

“The main difference between our study and the MuLBSTA study is that we came up with a novel score for COVID-19 patients,” he said. “Our study score doesn’t require chest x-rays or blood cultures, and the outcome is need for invasive mechanical ventilation, not mortality.”

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

A new scoring system can predict whether COVID-19 patients will require invasive mechanical ventilation, researchers report.

The score uses three variables to predict future risk: heart rate; the ratio of oxygen saturation (SpO₂) to fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂); and a positive troponin I level.

“What excites us is it’s a really benign tool,” said Muhtadi Alnababteh, MD, from the Medstar Washington (D.C.) Hospital Center. “For the first two variables you only need to look at vital signs, no labs or invasive diagnostics.”

“The third part is a simple lab, which is performed universally and can be done in any hospital,” he told this news organization. “We know that even rural hospitals can do this.”

For their retrospective analysis, Dr. Alnababteh and his colleagues assessed 265 adults with confirmed COVID-19 infection who were admitted to a single tertiary care center in March and April. They looked at demographic characteristics, lab results, and clinical and outcome information.

Ultimately, 54 of these patients required invasive mechanical ventilation.

On multiple-regression analysis, the researchers determined that three variables independently predicted the need for invasive mechanical ventilation.

Existing scores evaluated for COVID-19 outcome prediction

The MuLBSTA score can also be used to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

A retrospective evaluation of 163 patients was presented at CHEST 2020 by Jurgena Tusha, MD, from Wayne State University in Detroit.

Patients who survived their illness had a mean MuLBSTA score of 8.67, whereas patients who died had a mean score of 13.60.

The score “correlated significantly with mortality, ventilator support, and length of stay, which may be used to provide guidance to screen patients and make further clinical decisions,” Dr. Tusha said in a press release.

“Further studies are required to validate this study in larger patient cohorts,” she added.

The three-variable scoring system is easier to use than the MuLBSTA, and more specific, said Dr. Alnababteh.

“The main difference between our study and the MuLBSTA study is that we came up with a novel score for COVID-19 patients,” he said. “Our study score doesn’t require chest x-rays or blood cultures, and the outcome is need for invasive mechanical ventilation, not mortality.”

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.

A new scoring system can predict whether COVID-19 patients will require invasive mechanical ventilation, researchers report.

The score uses three variables to predict future risk: heart rate; the ratio of oxygen saturation (SpO₂) to fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂); and a positive troponin I level.

“What excites us is it’s a really benign tool,” said Muhtadi Alnababteh, MD, from the Medstar Washington (D.C.) Hospital Center. “For the first two variables you only need to look at vital signs, no labs or invasive diagnostics.”

“The third part is a simple lab, which is performed universally and can be done in any hospital,” he told this news organization. “We know that even rural hospitals can do this.”

For their retrospective analysis, Dr. Alnababteh and his colleagues assessed 265 adults with confirmed COVID-19 infection who were admitted to a single tertiary care center in March and April. They looked at demographic characteristics, lab results, and clinical and outcome information.

Ultimately, 54 of these patients required invasive mechanical ventilation.

On multiple-regression analysis, the researchers determined that three variables independently predicted the need for invasive mechanical ventilation.

Existing scores evaluated for COVID-19 outcome prediction

The MuLBSTA score can also be used to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

A retrospective evaluation of 163 patients was presented at CHEST 2020 by Jurgena Tusha, MD, from Wayne State University in Detroit.

Patients who survived their illness had a mean MuLBSTA score of 8.67, whereas patients who died had a mean score of 13.60.

The score “correlated significantly with mortality, ventilator support, and length of stay, which may be used to provide guidance to screen patients and make further clinical decisions,” Dr. Tusha said in a press release.

“Further studies are required to validate this study in larger patient cohorts,” she added.

The three-variable scoring system is easier to use than the MuLBSTA, and more specific, said Dr. Alnababteh.

“The main difference between our study and the MuLBSTA study is that we came up with a novel score for COVID-19 patients,” he said. “Our study score doesn’t require chest x-rays or blood cultures, and the outcome is need for invasive mechanical ventilation, not mortality.”

A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.